The Italian Labour Force Survey to estimate fertility

The own-children method (OCM) applied to the Italian Labour Force Survey (ILFS) is an alternative way to give information on fertility for the years before the survey. By deriving children information and the population at risk on the basis of parents’ characteristics, a large-scale dataset for fertility analysis in Italy becomes available, also to reconstruct event histories. The quality assessment provided by comparing the total fertility rate (TFR) calculated on ILFS with the official regional and national TFRs by ISTAT gives us usable outcomes.     

The impact of learning opportunities and decision authority on occupational health

In an investigation of 418 employees in the Norwegian Postal Service, employees with high learning opportunities and high decision authority were found to be better off on psychological functioning, health and organizational outcome variables than employees with low scores on these variables. Decision authority and learning opportunities had specific and independent impact on subjective health, psychological functioning, coping style and organizational outcome variables. There were, however, also interaction effects between demands, learning opportunities, and decision authority on subjective health. Learning opportunities and decision authority were operationalized with a questionnaire, supplemented with questions on the opportunities to learn skills beyond the present job situation. It is suggested that this is a particularly important dimension for coping with the present day rapid changes in working life, where the objective for many workers will be to broaden their repertoire and competence to increase their flexibility in the labour market.     

Neural networks in production planning and control

The purpose of this paper is to present a selection of the most significant ANN (artificial neural network) applications used to solve PPC (production planning and control) problems. Therefore, the paper itself is a reasoned classification rather than a simple survey. The PPC domain is divided into various areas, and for each area one or more examples of ANNs are discussed, together with the benefits and drawbacks of their application to that particular area. Finally, two case studies developed by the authors are reported and discussed to analyse the main implementation problems to be considered when using ANNs.     

Shop floor control system for tool rooms

A shop floor control system (SFCS), which is the most important component of any production control system, ff has a direct e ect on the productivity of a tool room. The SFCS presented in this paper aims at streamlining various tool room activities, such as process planning, operations scheduling, loading, progress monitoring, and performance monitoring. The system discussed in this paper is characterized by simplicity and is user friendly. Basic information, consisting of three types of information (order details, process details, and part details), is input through interactive dialogue sessions. On-line updating of the process information is carried out, again through interactive dialogue sessions. The basic input to the system along with the on-line updating enables a number of useful and important reports and documents to be generated ff by the system for e ective control of the shop floor. The reports generated include operations scheduling, process sheet, part list, ffi job card, load pending report, e ciency report, etc. This SFCS is developed for a medium sized tool room in an automotive company and its successful implemention reduced paperwork and improved resource management and has resulted in productivity. It can be said that this system offers a first venture into computer integrated manufacturing (CIM) for a tool room.     

出生性别比综合治理:有所为,有所不为

从1980年我国出生性别比越过正常值域至今,党和各级政府制订了种种措施进行综合治理,但取得的成效甚微。这一时期我国治理工作的特点有:重视禁止性法律法规的制定,但与之相配套的规章制度比较缺乏;重视目标任务的提出,但落实目标的措施比较缺乏;部门性、专项性规章制度较多,综合性规章制度比较缺乏。今后一段时期内综合治理工作,可以按照避实就虚、避难就易的原则,在大力发展社会经济、建立健全社会养老制度、相关法律法规的制定与完善、加大对两非行为的打击力度等方面有所作为;而在人口生育政策的调整、传统文化的改变等方面有所不为。     

Age at First Marriage and Age at Death in the Lincolnshire Fenland, 1252–1478

In five Lincolnshire villages between 1252 and 1478 there is evidence that men and women married fairly late before the Black Death, and that by 1348/9 the Western European marriage pattern of late and prudential marriage was well established. Households were usually nucleated; husbands were on average eight years older than their wives before 1348/9, and five years older after 1348/9. Marriages were short: according to the best calculation shorter before 1348/9 than after, most often terminated by the death of the first husband, and were unlikely to produce more than three children. Since there were more males than females amongst children and young adults, many men remained unmarried, but since the death rate of women was very high, men lived longer.     

中国育龄妇女生育集中度变化分析——基于“五普”、“六普”数据

新中国成立以来,结束了上千年的封建制度给妇女带来的桎梏,妇女的社会地位有了明显的提升,具体表现在社会活动的参与率有了显著的提高,同时妇女在生育行为方面也发生了巨大的变化。本文利用最近两次中国人口普查数据来分析育龄妇女的生育集中度变化情况,并以此对中国目前TFR很低的现象做了解释,据此推断中国在未来几年的时间,总和生育率在一定程度上会呈上升的变化趋势,但不可能在短期内回升到更替水平。     

Decentralized WIP-oriented manufacturing control (DEWIP)

DEWIP is a manufacturing control system for job shop environments aiming at achieving short and reliable lead times by establishing WIP control loops between the manufacturing work centres. The paper describes the mode of function, the setting of parameters and simulation results of the new manufacturing control system. The setting of parameters is done with the aid of the funnel model and the theory of logistic operating curves, both developed at the Institute of Production Systems at the University of Hanover. The simulation is conducted using industrial data and makes it possible to assess DEWIP with regard to lead times, WIP level, performance and schedule reliability. DEWIP is compared both with an uncontrolled process and with the manufacturing control systems Load oriented order release (LOOR), Conwip and Polca. The results suggest that DEWIP and the models employed for the setting of parameters are suitable for job shop production and therefore offer a valuable alternative to prevailing centralized manufacturing control systems.     

国有商业银行信贷资产风险分析及控制研究

在现阶段社会信用程度依然低下 ,形形色色的政府干预依然存在 ,现代商业银行制度尚未建立和完善的背景下 ,我国国有商业银行信贷资产风险的控制将是一项艰巨而复杂的系统工程。文章通过剖析信贷资产风险形成的内外部因素 ,阐述了信贷资产风险的形成机制 ,提出了控制信贷资产风险的针对性措施。