The diffusion of public private partnerships: a world systems analysis

ABSTRACT

This paper analyzes the diffusion of neoliberal policies from the UK to Australia and New Zealand, and then to the Asia-Pacific region. The analytical framework employed is the world systems model developed by Immanuel Wallerstein. The primary focus of attention is the spread of public-private partnerships (PPPs) modelled on the UK Private Finance Initiative (PFI). Despite the demise of the PFI in its country of origin, and repeated failures in Australia and New Zealand, there is still considerable enthusiasm for the model in Australasia reflected in eagerness to export national expertise through aid and financial links.     

Centring labour in financialization

ABSTRACT

This article draws on an engagement with Marx’s notes on money and finance to reconsider the relationships between labour, working classes, and financial accumulation. In recent years, these dynamics have often been understood through the lens of ‘financialization’ – referring to a trend towards the growing prominence of financial sector profits, logics, and power at the expense of productive activity. This lens has tended to produce analyses of labour and finance that are (1) unidirectional and (2) that often lump a wide range of developments under a single heading without considering how these trends might intersect in potentially contradictory ways. Marx offers a useful alternative insofar as his approach to money and finance centres on a continual and fraught dynamic between the ‘abstract’ social labour embodied in money and the ‘concrete’ labour performed in particular places at particular times. This argument is illustrated through brief vignettes from South Africa.     

A Simulation-Based Specification Test for Diffusion Processes

This article makes two contributions. First, we outline a simple simulation-based framework for constructing conditional distributions for multifactor and multidimensional diffusion processes, for the case where the functional form of the conditional density is unknown. The distributions can be used, for example, to form predictive confidence intervals for time period t + τ, given information up to period t. Second, we use the simulation-based approach to construct a test for the correct specification of a diffusion process. The suggested test is in the spirit of the conditional Kolmogorov test of Andrews. However, in the present context the null conditional distribution is unknown and is replaced by its simulated counterpart. The limiting distribution of the test statistic is not nuisance parameter-free. In light of this, asymptotically valid critical values are obtained via appropriate use of the block bootstrap. The suggested test has power against a larger class of alternatives than tests that are constructed using marginal distributions/densities. The findings of a small Monte Carlo experiment underscore the good finite sample properties of the proposed test, and an empirical illustration underscores the ease with which the proposed simulation and testing methodology can be applied.     

试论企业财务风险的成因与对策

财务风险客观存在于企业财务活动的全过程。企业财务风险的产生,既有企业外部原因,也有企业内部原因,不同种类的财务风险形成的具体原因也不相同。要完全消除财务风险及其影响是不现实的,只能通过适当的风险规避与控制措施,将企业损失降至最低。     

P2P网贷市场演化：基于系统动力学的仿真研究

准确把握P2P网贷市场的演化规律,对其发展至关重要。采用系统动力学方法,综合考虑市场内外因素,建立P2P网贷市场演化模型并对P2P市场在2014年7月至2017年4月间的演化情况进行仿真。研究表明：未来的P2P网贷余额数量将逐步攀升,但受到竞争压力与监管力度变化的影响,其平台数量会不断减少,出现强者愈强的局面;网贷市场对政府监管力度的敏感程度较高,受政策的影响程度较大;提高P2P网贷市场的征信能力是增强其活力的重要途径。     

Combining Judgmental and Statistical Forecasts: An Application to Earnings Forecasts

This study investigated the accuracy of combinations of statistical and judgmental forecasts of annual accounting earnings. Combined forecasts were generated as equally weighted (i.e., simple averages) and unequally weighted combinations of individual forecasts from time-series models of quarterly and annual earnings (statistical forecasts) and security analysts' forecasts of quarterly and annual earnings (judgmental forecasts). The effect of the number of individual forecasts combined on the accuracy of the combined forecasts was also examined. The empirical results indicated that, on the average, combined forecasts were more accurate than individual forecasts. The results also indicated that although analysts' forecasts are based on a wider information set, the accuracy of their forecasts could be improved by combining them with forecasts generated from statistical models. Even if the best individual forecast could be identified in advance, gains in accuracy could be achieved by using combinations of two other forecasting methods. Several of the combined forecasts were superior to the most accurate individual forecast. Forecasts combined by using unequal weights derived from a regression model proved more accurate than equally weighted combinations. Forecasting accuracy improved and the variability of accuracy across different combinations decreased as the number of forecasts in the combination increased.     

Distribution of Spot and Forward Exchange Rates: Empirical Evidence and Investor Valuation of Skewness and Kurtosis*

This paper examines the statistical distribution of exchange rates for eight major currencies for the post-1973 floating rate period. The results show that spot rates, forward rates, and ex-post risk premia all exhibit significant, persistent, but varying deviations from normality, and that the risk premia in forward rates reflect investor preferences for skewness and investor aversion towards standard deviation and kurtosis. These results imply that foreign currency forecasting and hedging practices, mean-variance portfolio analysis, pricing of foreign currency options, and other research involving exchange rates should account for these significant deviations from normality.     

A Credit Limit Decision Model for Inventory Floor Planning and Other Extended Trade Credit Arrangements*

This paper analyzes the dealership credit limit problem in terms of the valuation of a Markov process of cash flows with sequential credit decisions over an infinite planning horizon. The formulation distinguishes between the upper bound on credit applicable at the account formation stage and the upper bound applicable to periodic reorders. The result is a closed form solution to the problem which serves as a criterion function for approving or denying credit on a customer-by-customer basis. Data for a sample of manufacturing firms are employed to estimate typical ranges for criterion function parameters. Upper bounds on credit limits are then calculated and graphically presented for median parameter values as well as for values at the 5th and 95th percentiles for the sample data. Finally, an empirical study is conducted of actual trade credit extended by firms. The results support the hypothesis that the variables in the decision model are important determinants of the amount of trade credit outstanding.     

金融衍生交易的法律风险问题

金融衍生工具的出现方便了金融交易,降低了交易成本,但在提高金融运行效率的同时,由于其高投机性和高风险性的特点以及由其诱发的一系列金融事件已引起国际社会的广泛关注,因而了解金融衍生工具的含义和特征,分析金融衍生交易中的法律风险成因并进一步探索如何对其进行法律风险防范有着极其重要的意义。