中国中长期劳动力供需趋势分析

文章采用Leslie方法预测2015-2050年中国人口总量及其年龄分布结构．据此预测劳动年龄人口的劳动力供给总量,根据经济增长的就业弹性预测劳动力的需求总量,计算劳动力供需缺口。结果表明．劳动力供给和需求总量都呈现减少趋势,供给减少更快,2015年后,劳动力市场将出现供不应求的现象。供需缺口将长期存在并有扩大趋势。面对劳动力市场出现的供需缺口问题,提出了相应的政策建议。     

Basil Bernstein 1924-2000

This paper introduces the Tog coefficient, which can be used to measure the level of inequality in a cross-tabulation of two ordinal-level variables. The Gini coefficient is a standard measure of income inequality which has been adapted by other authors for use in different contexts such as the measurement of health inequalities and the quantification of occupational segregation; the Tog coefficient represents a further stage in this process of development. The paper outlines the construction of the Tog coefficient and illustrates this using a social mobility table based on data from the 1972 Oxford Mobility Study. The trend in social mobility-related inequality as measured by the Tog coefficient is compared with the findings of Goldthorpe et al. based on odds ratios. A more elaborate application of the Tog coefficient uses a variety of data relating to the similarity of spouses' class backgrounds to demonstrate the existence of a long-term decline in the level of inequality in British society.     

Differences in Understanding Generation in the Workforce

From an analysis of two age diverse samples in which we explored the ways “generation” is understood in the workforce, we make several contributions to generational research. First, we propose new conceptualizations on generations in the workforce. They are: contribution (a generation is defined based on the impact its members make on society or organizations) and generation as an ambiguous or irrelevant concept (generational categories are meaningless or inconsequential). Second, we note that individuals draw on a combination of multiple understandings of generations, making each person’s understanding unique and nuanced. Third, though most of our study participants leveraged age in their definition of generation, they did so in different ways. Fourth, we discuss outcomes of different understandings of generation, including conflict and identity work.     

一孩和二孩家庭收入与消费的实证分析——基于苏南农村某乡镇的调查

通过对江苏苏南农村790户一孩和二孩家庭的入户调查及数据分析,比较了两类家庭的基本人口学特征,讨论了两类家庭收入水平与结构、消费水平与结构的差异,结果表明,两类家庭在家庭总收入和总消费支出上没有显著差异,但一孩家庭的人均收入和消费支出均显著高于二孩家庭,家庭小孩数是引起差异的主要原因;同时通过比较两类家庭的基尼系数和恩格尔系数发现,二孩家庭中的贫富差距要大于一孩家庭。     

流动,还是留守?——农民工子女流动与否的决定因素分析

日常生活中的家庭结构及其与父母的居住模式是流动和留守儿童各种问题的根源。本文利用2006年的珠三角农民工抽样调查原始数据,从农民工子女流动或留守的两种生存状况出发,探索了决定这两种生存状态的各种因素。结果发现,农民工子女的流动与否在很大程度上受制于自己的年龄、农村社会支持、迁移距离和父(母)在城市生存状态,他们的流动与否不仅是作为农民工父(母)理性选择的结果,还与国家、地方、生产等方面的制度有关。也就是说,与人口迁移中推拉理论的论述一样,农民工子女的流动与否也是由农村社会和城市社会各自的推拉合力作用的结果,也是作为父母的农民工经过利弊权衡后的理性选择结果。     

养老倒逼婚姻：理解当前农村早婚现象的一个视角

农村近年来重新出现早婚高潮,早婚率甚至已经逼近上世纪80年代的水平。本文基于豫东西村的实地调查,认为当前农村的早婚现象是代际关系变动的结果,即养老倒逼婚姻：父母希望早日完成人生任务以便趁年轻力壮为自己积攒养老资源,子女在接受早婚要求的同时也通过婚姻向父母索取了大量家庭财富,代际之间的理性博弈助推了早婚的出现。在未来相当长的时期内,由代际关系变动推动的早婚仍将存在并可能有所发展。     

工资改革:缩小我国收入差距的现实选择

改革开放以来,随着市场经济的不断发展,我国居民收入不断增加,人民生活水平大幅度提高,然而,我们也看到,我国居民的收入差距逐步形成并且正在进一步扩大。本文首先从城乡、地区、行业以及不同阶层居民之间的收入差距四个方面分析了我国目前收入差距现状。其次,从不同角度分析了我国收入差距产生和扩大的原因。最后从工资改革的角度,对缩小我国收入差距的现实选择提出建议。     

The Pro‐Elderly Bias of Social Policies in Israel: A Historical‐Institutional Account

Accelerated population ageing and high voting turnout rates among elderly voters in recent decades have led many social scientists to predict increasing pro‐elderly biases in the social policies of mature welfare states. This article investigates and empirically estimates the evolving age orientation of social policies in Israel, which is a comparatively young society that has nevertheless aged significantly since independence in 1948. We present a historical and qualitative overview of the development of policy efforts towards different age groups and develop an Elderly/Non‐elderly Spending Ratio at four points in time between 1975 and 2005. We argue that in its first five decades, the Israeli welfare state uniquely combined a broadly universalistic and citizenship‐based outlook with a number of significant particularistic spending biases towards specific subgroups. But from the second half of the 1990s onwards, the pro‐elderly policy bias of the Israeli welfare state has strongly increased. These findings support Lynch's thesis for 21 OECD countries, which posits that a shift from a universal to a more occupationally based institutional model of welfare will result in a higher pro‐elderly bias of social spending.     

新疆与东部地区经济发展差异的制度视角分析

现存新疆与东部地区经济发展差异原因的各种理论都有失子现象化。其实，制度因素是造成新疆与东部地区经济发展差异深层次的原因。本文认为地方政府提供的正式制度，主要是要素配置市场化制度，产权制度、分配制度、对外开放制度以及行政管理制度能否满足微观经济主体的市场化制度需求，以及由此带来的对于区域非正式制度向着市场化需求方向变迁的程度与效率。正是这些方面的滞后才是造成新疆经济发展差异深层次的原因。     

当代中国社会转型与现代法律秩序生长

当代中国社会变革出现了一系列现实问题,城乡分割体制的存在、贫富悬殊的两极化以及阶层认同的危机,都对现代法律秩序生长提出了严峻挑战。消除城乡二元制度性篱笆,提供更多的流动机会与制度空间;抑制社会权力滥用,加强平民上升流动,大力培育中产阶层;通过结构性改造和制度性变革,加强阶层认同意识,是应对各种社会转型中的结构性矛盾,推动现代法律秩序生长的有效途径。