Estimation with right‐censored observations under a semi‐Markov model

The semi‐Markov process often provides a better framework than the classical Markov process for the analysis of events with multiple states. The purpose of this paper is twofold. First, we show that in the presence of right censoring, when the right end‐point of the support of the censoring time is strictly less than the right end‐point of the support of the semi‐Markov kernel, the transition probability of the semi‐Markov process is nonidentifiable, and the estimators proposed in the literature are inconsistent in general. We derive the set of all attainable values for the transition probability based on the censored data, and we propose a nonparametric inference procedure for the transition probability using this set. Second, the conventional approach to constructing confidence bands is not applicable for the semi‐Markov kernel and the sojourn time distribution. We propose new perturbation resampling methods to construct these confidence bands. Different weights and transformations are explored in the construction. We use simulation to examine our proposals and illustrate them with hospitalization data from a recent cancer survivor study. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 41: 237–256; 2013 © 2013 Statistical Society of Canada     

民国西安经济转型的动力与结构分析

民国以降，西安经济发展的水平和结构受到制度和抗战沦陷区经济大转移等外力因素的剧烈影响，短期的外部赋予给西安经济注入了活力，迅速改变了当地经济的落后面貌，这对西安经济结构的改造具有重要影响，但对外部因素的过度倚重，形成国防、军事统制企业生产，手工业为核心工业体系，消费工业为主体诉求的经济结构，经济发展和社会转型低层次、同质性显著。在经济转型和结构发展中，西安近代化凸显了制度强化经济发展的作用。     

中国人社会心态六十年变迁及发展趋势

在1949年后的六十年中,中国的经济基础和社会结构都发生了巨大的变化.与此相对应,中国人的价值观和社会心态也发生了显著的嬗变.在建国后的前三十年,中国共产党通过一系列政治运动实现了对中国社会的改造和整合,也使中国人的传统社会心理在分化变动之后走向高度同一;在建国后的后三十年,改革开放的伟大实践打破了僵化和保守的意识形态,中国人的社会心态在经历了一系列波折之后发生了积极的嬗变.经过六十年的变迁,中国人的价值观与社会心态变得越来越理智和成熟、越来越开放和多元、越来越主动和积极,也越来越具有全球意识.新中国六十年的"革命"和改革实践带给中国人的主观感受和心理积淀,在精神层面上赋予了中国独特发展道路以完整的价值和意义.     

Beyond High School

Abstract

This study examined interpersonal heterosexist discrimination by examining self-reported anti-gay behaviors of heterosexual college students. Respondents were 226 college students; 94.9% had perpetrated some form of discriminatory behavior and 32.7% had committed a behavior that was rated as moderately harmful or higher. A higher amount of self-reported discriminatory behavior was associated with being male, having more homophobic attitudes, and having lower GPAs. Discriminatory behaviors were not related to political ideology, religious influence, or interaction with gay men and lesbians. Neither discriminatory behaviors nor homophobic attitudes were related to academic year, age, membership in a social fraternity/sorority, or membership on an intercollegiate athletic team.     

A stochastic version of the malthusian trap model: Consequences for the empirical relationship between economic growth and population growth in LDC's

A stochastic version of the Malthusian trap model relating the growth rate of income per capita to the population growth rate of a given country is described. This model is applied to the a priori evaluation of the cross‐sectional correlation between these two growth rates under two additional assumptions: i) the relations in the model at national levels include country‐specific and time‐invariant random components, and ii) these growth rates are measured with a certain degree of temporal aggregation. It is shown that these two assumptions can explain near‐zero correlations between the two growth rates even if there exist a strongly negative effect of population growth on economic growth. However it is not clear whether these assumptions fully explain such insignificant correlations. Indeed, the implementation of the model is complicated by the structural shifts which are likely to occur in the equations over the course of the demographic transition.     

A Social Problems Framework for the Critical Appraisal of Automobility and Sustainable Systems Innovation

Over the past three decades, critical assessment of the automobile has evolved from a focus on the technical inadequacies of the internal combustion engine to a more comprehensive appraisal of the sociotechnical system for providing mobility. The following study charts the evolution of this discourse by focusing in particular on the way in which the Worldwatch Institute has interpreted the various problems of the motorcar during this timeframe. There are now indications that a more thoroughgoing systems view of automobile dependency is developing predicated upon three problem dimensions: fuel use, urban congestion and sedentary lifestyles. The analysis presents a social‐problems framework for beginning to conceptualize more sustainable modes of mobility in the post‐automobile era.     

Parental wealth and resource transfers: How they matter in France for home ownership and living standards

The role played by parental wealth in facilitating the life chances and living standards of offspring is a topic of growing interest in stratification research. For working and middle class households much of their intervivos transfers to children is provided in the form of assistance with a home purchase. This paper examines the impact of parental wealth and transfers of wealth on several aspects of the homeownership decision - the timing of the purchase, the cost of the home, and the downpayment proportion, as well as living standards subsequent to the purchase. We utilize a unique data set from France which contains information on parental wealth and wealth transfers from both sets of parents of a couple. We correct for possible endogeneity of parental transfers and model the joint determination of the downpayment proportion and home value. The results make clear the complex pathways by which parental wealth influences the tenancy arrangements and living standards of offspring.     

关于建立"中国转型社会学"学科的设想——兼评90年代中国社会转型研究

本文从我国社会转型期的社会实践和社会学理论发展出发,认为现在已具备了建立一门作为"转型学"分支学科的"中国转型社会学"或社会转型学的条件,指出建立这一学科具有重要的现实意义和学科意义.文章继而对"中国转型社会学"的理论与应用研究进行了学术梳理和定位,还对"中国转型社会学"的研究与发展的技术、经济社会和文化背景作了学理分析和前景展望.最后,提出了中国社会学家应抓住转型期社会创新所提供的学术创新的机会,发挥社会学家的想像力与社会观察力,以实现社会学者的社会责任和历史使命.     

超越“集体行动困境”——埃莉诺·奥斯特罗姆的自主组织理论述评

自主组织理论是在对传统集体理论的批判分析中形成的,它集中探讨了一群相互依赖的个体怎样自己组织起来,进行自主治理,从而在一定程度上超越"集体行动困境".自主组织理论可为我国治道变革中面临的公共资源可持续利用、基层民主建设和非营利组织发展等问题提供一些借鉴,但必须考虑我国政治、文化传统等方面的自身特点与影响.     

中国社会转型期的社会分化与主流意识形态凝聚力的重建

中国社会正处于转型中,转型造成经济利益分化,社会结构变化,社会主流意识形态的凝聚力必须相应加强。我们应重新认识国家的社会职能,高举邓小平理论伟大旗帜,以江泽民“三个代表”重要思想为指导,拓展理论与实践的空间和领域,重建主流意识形态的凝聚力。