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91.
This paper presents Monte Carlo experiments on the small sample performance of the predictive test for structural change proposed by Ghysels and Hall. The predictive test was found to be more powerful than the overidentifying restrictions test in terms of size-corrected power when a shift in parameter has occurred. Also, it was found that the power of the predictive test decreases drastically as the number of the out-sample data decreases. 相似文献
92.
Matthias Doepke 《Journal of population economics》2005,18(2):337-366
I compare the predictions of three variants of the altruistic parent model of Barro and Becker for the relationship between
child mortality and fertility. In the baseline model fertility choice is continuous, and there is no uncertainty over the
number of surviving children. The baseline model is contrasted to an extension with discrete fertility choice and stochastic
mortality and a setup with sequential fertility choice. The quantitative predictions of the models are remarkably similar.
While in each model the total fertility rate falls as child mortality declines, the number of surviving children increases.
The results suggest that factors other than declining infant and child mortality are responsible for the large decline in
net reproduction rates observed in industrialized countries over the last century.
Financial support by the National Science Foundation (grant SES-0217051) and the UCLA Academic Senate is gratefully acknowledged.
I thank Sebnem Kalemli-Oczan, Rodrigo Soares, and two anonymous referees for comments that helped to substantially improve
the paper. Olesya Baker and Ilya Berger provided excellent research assistance.
Responsible editor: Junsen Zhang. 相似文献
93.
Murat Iyigun 《Journal of population economics》2005,18(2):301-321
This paper explores the role of geography in early development. It presents a model where the odds of survival are higher
in geographically favorable regions. In such regions, higher life expectancy prompts parents to devote more of their resources
to old-age consumption and enables them to invest relatively more in the quantity and quality of their offspring. Investment
in education, together with population growth, helps geographically-favorable economies to attain high levels of a more educated
population that is necessary for sustained economic growth. The empirical evidence is generally supportive of the view that
geographic attributes influenced regional population levels in Europe and its colonial offshoots around 1500 A.D. and that
they affected population levels and educational attainment in low-income countries of the 1990s.
For useful comments and suggestions I thank the editor, two anonymous referees, Daron Acemoglu, Ann Carlos, Phil Graves, Naci
Mocan, Oded Stark, seminar participants at the University of Colorado at Boulder, the University of Colorado at Denver, and
the 2002 Royal Economic Society Annual Conference. I owe a special debt of gratitude to my advisor Herschel Grossman who passed
away in October 2004 after leaving his mark on many of us in the profession. The standard disclaimer applies.
Responsible editor: Alessandro Cigno. 相似文献
94.
徐晋山 《山西大学学报(哲学社会科学版)》2004,27(2):103-105
巴赫六首无伴奏大提琴组曲是大提琴演奏曲目中的经典之作,它具有完善的理论依据和广阔的表现空间,从被发现到现在,一百多年来产生了许多不同的理解和演绎模式,并且随着岁月的流逝,它的魅力、影响力还在与日俱增,新的诠释、新的理解还在源源不断地问世. 相似文献
95.
The relative earnings growth for immigrants in Norway is computed. Unlike Hayfron (1998, this journal) we define immigrants
by country of origin rather than citizenship and perform separate studies of immigrants from inside and outside the OECD region.
Replicating Hayfron op.cit. we find that the earnings assimilation is considerably weaker. Further, we find that the earnings
of OECD immigrants are comparable to those of natives, while Non-OECD immigrants earn considerably less than natives at the
time of entry, but that their relative earnings improve gradually over time. Earnings of different immigrant cohorts converged
from 1980 to 1990, indicating a non-linear rate of assimilation.
Received: 7 April 2000/Accepted: 4 January 2001 相似文献
96.
Katharine G. Abraham 《Allgemeines Statistisches Archiv》2005,89(2):121-139
Summary: The paper illustrates the value of broad researcher access to survey and administrative microdata using examples drawn from
the U. S. experience, outlining how analyses of trends in earnings inequality, poverty and employment dynamics using such
data have benefited policy makers and contributed to improvements in statistical agency data products. Methods of facilitating
researcher access, including the release of public use files, the use of licensing agreements, and the establishment of research
data centers, are discussed.
* The author thanks Anne Polivka, Marilyn Seastrom and two anonymous referees for helpful comments on an earlier draft of
the paper. 相似文献
97.
陈伟妮 《辽东学院学报(社会科学版)》2006,8(5):73-75
弗雷泽的《金枝》以内米湖畔的一个古老习俗展开,以世界各地的民间习俗为证,阐述了巫术与早期人类文化生活、宗教的关系。这个习俗是《金枝》赖以构建整个体系的基础,但它在祭司更替的问题上却出现了致命的漏洞,使弗雷泽据此得出的结论并不令人信服。 相似文献
98.
Stephen J. Kobrin 《Journal of Policy Modeling》1981,3(2):251-270
Political risk is defined in terms of managerial contingencies arising from political events and processes. A number of “first-generation” assessment methodologies are reviewed and compared in terms of their degree of structure (explicit model of process) and systemization (formalization of methodology). The paper concludes that, at this point, effective political assessment is more likely to result from explicit specification of causal relationships and implementation of systematic analytical procedures than from development of increased methodological sophistication or elegance. 相似文献
99.
For testing the hypothesis that several (s?2) linear regression surfaces Xki=αk+βkcki+Zki (k=1,…,s) are parallel to one another, i.e., β1=?=βs, a class of rank-order tests are considered. The tests are shown to be asymptotically distribution-free, and their asymptotic efficiency relative to the general likelihood ratio test is derived. Asymptotic optimality in the sense of Wald is also discussed. 相似文献
100.
Discrete one-dimensional scan statistics can be viewed as extremes of 1-dependent stationary sequences. A result of Haiman [1999. First passage time for some stationary processes. Stochastic Process. Appl. 80, 231–248] provides approximations of the distributions of extremes of 1-dependent stationary sequences together with sharp bounds for the corresponding errors. We apply this result to scan statistics generated by Bernoulli r.v.'s and to the charge problem. 相似文献