Role of Comparative Risk Assessment in Addressing Environmental Security in the Middle East

During the 21st century, environmental challenges are likely to intensify across the world and possibly lead to violent conflicts. Strategies for conflict avoidance will be incomplete unless they recognize, discuss, and mitigate regional environmental stress factors. Comparative risk assessment (CRA) is one of the most critical tools emerging to influence modern environmental policies and is increasingly used to create a common language to help reconcile competing interests in development and environmental disputes around the world. This article considers the environmental challenges facing the Middle East in light of their "transboundary" nature and proposes CRA as a framework for setting environmental priorities and reducing tensions in the region.     

Resource reallocation under alternative trade regimes: A simulation of Turkey's entry into the EEC

A general equilibrium model that is applicable for simulating the directions in which resources would be reallocated under alternative trade regimes, in particular, a free trade regime, is developed and applied to the Turkish economy. Because of the likelihood that Turkey will gain full entry into the EEC, the model is also used to identify sectors in which Turkey may have a comparative advantage relative to the EEC countries and to estimate magnitudes of static gains from full entry. To provide some tests of important generalizations from the theory of customs unions, these estimates of static gains are compared with some estimates of total welfare effects of the entry of the United Kingdom into the EEC.     

从"出世"到"入世" --论文艺复兴时期意大利的市民生活伦理

一般认为,文艺复兴时期意大利社会的一个显著特征就是其世俗精神,但这种世俗精神究竞指什么,笔者认为它的表现是多种多样的,其中很重要的一点就是一种强调入世的市民生活伦理,它的出现对推动欧洲社会的世俗化进程具有重要意义.     

论美国中产阶级的成长规律性及其对我们的启示

扩大中等收入群体是缩小我国贫富差距,乃至于构建我国和谐社会的必由之路。深入分析美国中产阶级成长的规律性及其与经济社会之间的互动关系,对于探讨我国中产阶层的成长之路具有极大的启示意义。     

车向忱与东北竞存学校的抗日救亡活动

东北老教育家车向忱身负国仇家恨,于抗日战争期间在陕西创办私立东北竞存学校,安辑东北流亡难童,立志要为抗战培养革命力量,为将来的建设培养人才.竞存学校的创办和发展离不开中国共产党的关怀和支持.在车向忱的带领下,东北竞存学校的学生积极投身到抗日救亡活动中.     

布什政府中东国际广播效能评析

为了缓解“9·11”事件后中东强烈的反关甚至仇美情绪，布什政府决定加大对中东的广播宣传。布什政府认为，从整体上讲，中东的媒体环境对美国是“不友好的”，甚至是“充满敌意的”；中东民众所接触到的有关美国的信息是“不真实的”，甚至是“被歪曲的”。这些“不真实”、“不可靠”的信息误导了中东民众，使他们对美国产生了“误解”和“仇恨”。正是基于这种逻辑，布什政府在“9·11”事件后不久很快建立起包括萨瓦电台、自由电视台、自由阿富汗电台等在内的中东广播网络，目的是宣传美国的外交政策，传播美国的价值观，舒缓中东民众对美国的敌意，增进中东民众对美国的好感。但是从2002年初至今的情况来看，布什政府对中东的广播宣传并没有达到预期的效果，其核心原因在于中东民众对美国中东政策的不满。     

Impacts of the Triple Global Crisis on Growth and Poverty: The Case of Yemen

Yemen is an oil‐exporting and food‐importing country with the highest levels of poverty in the Middle East and North Africa. The impacts of the triple crisis are likely to further complicate pre‐existing conditions of conflict, oil depletion and governance failure. Using a dynamic CGE model, this article finds that oil‐driven growth in 2008 dominated the negative growth impacts of the food crisis, but that growth was not pro‐poor. The financial crisis of 2009 slowed growth sharply and raised the poverty rate to 42.8%, up from 34.8% in 2005/6. Poverty continues to be higher in rural areas, where almost half the population live in poverty.     

阿中友好关系中的民间外交

本文旨在探寻中国和阿拉伯民族民间外交的古代历史源头，并进一步探讨中国和阿拉伯民间外交关系在现当代的形成与发展，主要解答以下几个问题：中国和阿拉伯历史上民间外交先驱所付出的努力是否为双方外交关系的建立起了铺路奠基的作用？民间外交工作的本质及其开展形式如何？双方民间外交的现状怎样，如何拓展民间外交在当今社会的发展空间？在建立阿中双方全面、富有成效的战略伙伴关系过程中，民间外交能发挥多大的作用？本文还对如何进一步开展阿中民间外交提出了一些建议。     

国际原子能机构及其核查效能研究——以该机构在中东核查为例

国际原子能机构自1957年成立以来,经历了产生、发展和完善三个阶段,其核查效能也处于动态变化之中.影响国际原子能机构核查效能有三个基本因素:该机构核查制度的完善程度、大国对该机构的支持度和受核查国融入国际体系的程度.为检验上述基本假设,本文考察了国际原子能机构在中东国家的核查实践,分析了其对以色列、伊拉克、利比亚和伊朗四国核查是否有效及其原因,最终证明上述假设基本成立.     

中国参与中东经济事务的全球视角分析

全球视角既是中国参与中东经济事务的难点,也是中国扩大国际影响的着力点。以全球视角参与中东经济事务的含义有二:在具体层面上,应正视与中东国家经贸关系存在的问题,从推动双边关系的平稳发展来实现整体顺利参与;从整体角度看,中国应以中东经济事务为平台妥善处理与世界大国关系,推动能源领域的国际化和市场化。中国需从石油美元视角审视贸易顺差和人民币币值问题,超越“瓜达尔港式”命题,加速向国际社会的全面融入。