中阿合作论坛与国际、地区变革

本文从中阿合作论坛第一个十年的目标与成就、国际形势变化中的中阿合作论坛、中阿合作论坛与中东剧变等角度展开论述,并基于此论述得出以下重要结论：即中阿间历史悠久的文明、文化交流是双方友好交往史的起点;中阿间官民并举、积极合作具有必要性与迫切性;“论坛”的建立是全球化挑战下中阿关系发展的战略性步伐。过去十年间,中阿关系稳步发展,“论坛”为将彼此关系提升到战略合作层面发挥了重要的基础作用。今天,为古代中阿丝绸之路注入新的活力已成为新的命题,这需要双方全面、长久的战略合作,需要兼顾中阿关系的发展,适应国际形势的变幻。“论坛”在重构丝绸之路,建立经济繁荣、文化互动的中阿战略关系方面,有着义不容辞的责任与义务。     

Social work students field training as an opportunity to develop best practice in disabilities: the case of Jordan

This article outlines an innovative field for training efforts that foster the abilities of undergraduate social work students so that they are able to empower local communities in disability issues. It discusses the contribution of social work education in improving livelihoods of families with disabled members, challenging families as well as attitudes of local communities towards the disabled. Social work students were placed in a centre for children with developmental disabilities for a period of eight months. At this stage of their training, students were required to demonstrate their skills in working with individuals, families and communities. They were also required to identify opportunities for interventions that addressed stigma and social inclusion. Key outcomes from students’ voices were captured through their field notes, some limited observations and focus group discussions. The field training demonstrated that students managed to establish a support group for mothers with disabled children to provide a safe place to share their experiences. Student outcomes highlighted that the field experience was effective and feedback from families indicated that training raises disability awareness and facilitates women’s access to existing support systems. In addition, it engages professionals and families to work together in developing a long-term strategy to reduce isolation and exclusion, as well as to tackle health and social inequalities in Jordan.     

中学共青团工作运行机制研究

中学共青团工作是共青团工作的重要内容之一,也是中学德育的重要组成部分。中学共青团工作运行机制要根据中学生的成长发展规律、中学教育的中心任务、共青团工作的最终职责来设计。建立科学化的中学共青团工作运行体系、差异化的中学共青团工作运行内容、多元化的中学共青团运行评价指标对中学共青团工作有极大的促进作用。     

论中美全球战略利益的兼容性与中美中东合作

中美在亚太地区战略利益存在一定的结构性矛盾,但双方的安全竞争具有低烈度性,处于可控范围内;在中东地区,中美战略利益存在结构上的互补性,双方在防扩散、反恐、反海盗、维护自由通航、确保能源供应安全、维护海湾等中东国家的局势稳定等方面,尽管存在分歧,但拥有共同利益和认知。中东既是美国全球霸权的三大战略地区之一,也是中国大周边外交的组成部分,是中国运筹大国关系的支点和平台。未来中美在中东的战略协作将继续在结构性互补的框架下展开。双方需要以开展中东热点外交为抓手,拓展中美在中东战略利益的兼容性,使全球视野下的中美战略合作拥有更加稳定的平台。     

Why Do Neighbors Have Different Environmental Priorities? Analysis of Environmental Risk Perception in a Beirut Neighborhood

Differences in environmental priorities within an urban neighborhood of Beirut are analyzed. The explanatory capabilities of five categories of contextual variables are compared: socioeconomic status, locality, health, behavior, and environmental beliefs. Semi-structured interviews with key individuals in the community and residents were first conducted. Four environmental issues of concern were identified. A survey was carried out to identify the relative priority accorded by respondents to these four issues, and to measure variables likely to explain differences of opinion. Bivariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were conducted for each of the four problems. The 99% confidence interval (CI) of the odds ratio (OR) was used as a test of significance. Respondents suffering from a respiratory disease (OR = 6.94, 99%CI = 1.54-31.25), those living in less crowded houses (OR = 4.88, 99%CI = 1.38-17.24), and those not living close to the neighborhood's industrial street (OR=5.26, 99%CI = 1.01-27.78) are significantly more likely to rank poor air quality first. Significant associations are found between poor water quality as first priority and nonpresence of a smoker in the household (OR = 6.12, 99%CI = 1.84-20.32) and perception of water salinity as a problem (OR = 7.46, 99%CI = 1.50-37.03). Males (OR = 6.94, 99%CI = 1.02-47.62) and tenants versus owners (OR = 10.49, 99%CI = 1.36-80.61) are significantly more likely to rank the residential-industrial mix first. Socioeconomic variables retain their explanatory capability in the studied neighborhood, despite relatively small income disparities. Behavioral variables, such as smoking, may be causative factors of priorities. Analyzing relative priorities, rather than "concern" or lack of it, reveals more complex patterns of association. Identifying environmental-perception divide lines can help develop a more inclusive and effective participatory environmental management.     

文明交往论和通史研究问题的思考——《中东国家通史·叙利亚和黎巴嫩卷》编后记

在数千年世界古代文明中 ,中东地区一直处于创造力的中心。如同整个人类文明史一样 ,不同文明间的交往贯穿于全部中东文明史之中。文明交往的作用 ,最重要的内在精神在于不同文明相互激发彼此的创造力 ,促进彼此吸收对方经验 ,充实各自的生命力 ;文明交往的原动力 ,是它的开放性、主动性和自主性 ;文明的本土因素在交往中起关键作用 ,失去本土因素即失去文明主体。泛义上的叙利亚文明交往史还凸现出三个重要性 :1 .商贸交往有着不容忽视的作用 ;2 .文明交往的互动性表现为文明间的影响与反影响 ;3.叙利亚地区文明交往中的分解转化环节 ,延续了叙利亚和希腊文明解体后的断层 ,衍生了基督教和伊斯兰文明     

试析中东文明的多源性和统一性

中东文明是多源的 ,其原因如下 :中东地处欧、亚、非三大洲之间的地理位置和物产单一促进了贸易的发展 ;中东历来是民族入侵和迁移频繁发生之地 ;从语言和民族角度看 ,创造中东古代文明的民族主要可以分为闪族、操印欧语言的民族和其他民族共三类。埃及和两河流域是古代中东的两大文明中心 ,受其影响周边发展起若干小文明 ,而在文明交往的推动下先后建立了包括三大洲的一些大帝国 ,以及三大一神教 ,最终形成了中东文化圈     

中世纪美学中"光"的象征及其宗教意蕴

“光”是理解中世纪美学一个重要节点。在中世纪的象征艺术中,“光”的象征艺术在建筑、绘画及文学等艺术领域获得众多表现,并具有特定的宗教意蕴。“光”在中世纪主要作为外在的源泉、绝对的权威主体——上帝的象征而被表现,由此更好地理解中世纪基督教美学的神学品格。中世纪“光”的宗教形而上学意蕴之形成之逻各斯根源可以追溯到柏拉图的理念论,柏拉图具有先验性的理念论,他关于投向可见世界的眼睛的视觉和指向理念的灵魂的视觉的区分后由奥古斯丁发展为中世纪光照论(illum inatio)。普罗提诺波、埃里根纳、那文土拉等人都参与完善了中世纪“光”的象征理论。此外,中世纪“光”的象征理论同时好受到亚述、埃及等东方文化的影响。     

Inferences for Mixtures of Distributions for Centrally Censored Data with Partial Identification

In this article, several methods to make inferences about the parameters of a finite mixture of distributions in the context of centrally censored data with partial identification are revised. These methods are an adaptation of the work in Contreras-Cristán, Gutiérrez-Peña, and O'Reilly (2003 Contreras-Cristán , A. , Gutiérrez-Peña , E. , O'Reilly , F. ( 2003 ). Inferences using latent variables for mixtures of distributions for censored data with partial identification . Comm. Stat. Theor. Meth. 32 ( 4 ): 749 – 774 .[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) in the case of right censoring. The first method focuses on an asymptotic approximation to a suitably simplified likelihood using some latent quantities; the second method is based on the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm. Both methods make explicit use of latent variables and provide computationally efficient procedures compared to non-Bayesian methods that deal directly with the full likelihood of the mixture appealing to its asymptotic approximation. The third method, from a Bayesian perspective, uses data augmentation to work with an uncensored sample. This last method is related to a recently proposed Bayesian method in Baker, Mengersen, and Davis (2005 Baker , P. , Mengersen , K. , Davis , G. ( 2005 ). A Bayesian solution to reconstructing centrally censored distributions . J. Agr. Biol. Environ. Stat. 1 : 61 – 84 . [Google Scholar]). Our proposal of the three adapted methods is shown to provide similar inferential answers, thus offering alternative analyses.     

Social Security in the Middle East

Abstract

The countries of the Middle East all have traditional social insurance type social security programs. The move towards defined contribution individual accounts that is occurring in some regions has not affected this region The social security programs in the Middle East are not facing the problems of financing found in Europe and North America, in part because they still have relatively high fertility rates and are thus little affected by population aging. They tend to have low retirement ages and some of the wealthy countries of the region provide very generous benefits. Many of them need to consider reforms that raise retirement ages. A characteristic of many of the social security old-age benefit programs of the region is that they exclude foreign workers, who in some countries account for more than half the workforce.