Patterns of intergenerational mobility of the old and new middle classes in a post-industrial society: Netherlands 1970-2006

It has often been proposed that new cleavages have emerged within the middle class. In this paper, we examine the distinction between social and cultural specialists and technocrats, and investigate whether these new and old middle class fractions are differentiated by their patterns of intergenerational mobility. To what extent do these newly distinguished middle class fractions have specific external and internal intergenerational mobility patterns? And to what extent have mobility boundaries between them been rising over time? To answer these questions, we use 47 Dutch national population sample surveys with detailed occupation codes collected between 1970 and 2006 (N = 60,978). Our analyses of internal and external homogeneity show that the middle class fractions each have characteristic mobility and immobility patterns and therefore a necessary condition is satisfied to declare them as separate classes. Furthermore, in the early periods, the social and cultural specialists were differentiated by a high level of immobility but in the later periods, the distance between the old and new middle classes has decreased significantly.     

Political Activism of Palestinian Youth: Exploring Individual,Parental, and Ecological Factors

The growing literature on youth and political conflict has not included an adequate focus on youth activism. To address this deficit, this study used youth‐ and parent‐reported data (N = 6,718) from the 1994–1995 Palestinian Family Study to test an ecological model of family influence (parents' activism, expectations for their adolescents' activism, support, psychological control), youth characteristics (self‐evaluation), and elements of the broader social ecology (socioeconomic status, religiosity, and region of residence) predicting Palestinian 9th graders' political activism during the first intifada (1987–1993). Parental activism was the strongest predictor of youth activism, both directly and via parental expectations for activism. Classic parenting behaviors were not systematically useful in understanding activism; neither were socioeconomic status or religiosity. The model applied equally well for sons and daughters, with the exception that maternal activism contributed uniquely to daughters' activism beyond the significant effect of fathers' activism.     

当代伊斯兰复兴运动与伊斯兰国家现代化进程

在伊斯兰国家的现代化进程中必然会出现各种社会政治思潮。伊斯兰复兴运动在这些思朝中最具有代表性,同时产生了最深刻的影响。伊斯兰复兴运动对于探索伊斯兰式的现代化路径有重大意义。能否协调伊斯兰复兴运动和现代化之间的关系在很大程度上决定了伊斯兰国家的现代化是否可以实现。     

The cultural-economic model and public relations in the Middle East: An examination of the Islamic banking system in Kuwait

This article adopts the cultural-economic model of public relations practice to analyze the communications through the websites of three prominent Islamic banks in Kuwait. The analysis extrapolates Islamic value orientations including respect for religious authority, affinity with the past, fatalism, communal kinship, attachment to the eternal life and spirituality and idealism. The orientations are then examined relative to public relations practice in the Middle East. The study advances the understanding of Islam and public relations in the Middle East, an understudied region in public relations literature, and illuminates the relationship between religion and public relations. It concludes with observations to guide public relations projects directed toward Muslims in the Middle East for professionals and scholars.     

共建“丝绸之路经济带”的机遇及中国中东战略

共同建设“丝绸之路经济带”和“21世纪海上丝绸之路”不仅是中国经济进一步发展的客观需要,是深化改革开放特别是向西开放的国家战略,也是亚欧国家特别是中东国家的重大历史发展机遇。中国经济获得了举世瞩目的发展,而中东国家经济却在动荡与战乱中艰难前行。从全球经济来看,中国经济和中东国家经济处在不同的历史发展阶段,这种差异恰恰反映出经济合作中的互补性,双方应该把握历史机遇、利用互补优势、实现双赢的合作。明确中东在中国外交中的地位,中国对中东战略应该把握好拓展国际政治空间、加强国家安全、扩大经贸合作、注重提升软实力等四个发力点。     

土耳其世俗化进程中的中产阶层功能分析

土耳其是第一个以中产阶层为主体的伊斯兰国家。中产阶层形成至今约有一个世纪的历史,其成员组成由最早奥斯曼帝国晚期的官僚阶级和军人、到现代土耳其时期的小商人、知识分子等。大多数中产阶层自身建构为欧洲身份认同,喜欢西方化的生活方式。在98％都是穆斯林的土耳其,这部分中产阶层坚持推行世俗化发展道路,支持国家加入欧盟和深化与美国的传统盟友关系。中产阶层不仅是民主化的推动力,而且是推动国内经济增长的重要力量。21世纪以来,土耳其经济稳定的增长使中产阶层占有比例不断扩大,以至于土耳其成为西方大品牌竞相投资扩张的热土。在当代土耳其,中产阶层与现代化已经融为一体,他们教育水平较高,具有良好的文化特征,对整个社会文化氛围的形成具有巨大的影响力。可以说,中产阶层是决定土耳其国家未来发展方向的重要力量。     

俄罗斯应对叙利亚危机的政策分析

本论文分析俄罗斯中东战略思维的历史演变过程;探究当前俄罗斯对叙利亚危机政策的背景、思想根源及影响因素;解读俄罗斯政策基于的政治、经济、民族、宗教缘由;阐释叙利亚危机局势下俄美利益的交汇与分歧。     

中东剧变与海合会区域经济合作

面对中东剧变的冲击,海合会在联合维护成员国政权稳定的同时,对内深化合作,对外趁势扩员,拓展地区影响。海合会在坚持内部深化策略的同时首次选择扩员,其根源在于海合会国家对自身根本利益的认知,对维护国内政治制度安全稳定的偏好在其区域经济合作中始终发挥着幕后主导作用。海合会内部经济合作将进一步向民生相关的社会经济领域扩展深化,并逐步从消极一体化向积极一体化迈进,同时政治安全因素在海合会经济合作中的幕后主导作用进一步加强,沙特的领导核心地位也愈加突出。中东剧变使海合会在中东区域经济合作中的地位不断上升,但其引领中东区域经济合作的难度也进一步加大。     

伊朗核问题与中国中东外交

21世纪以来,伊朗核问题就成为世界政治中的重要问题,并牵动中美关系的神经。受国家利益的影响,中美之间在伊朗核问题上的博弈十分复杂。直到2013年,美伊关系有了突破,二者结束了长达34年的僵局,展开对话。伊朗核问题的突破进展以及中东复杂的政治剧变,给中国的中东外交同时带来了机遇和挑战。本文认为,未来十年中,中东地区的主线依然是动荡,中国要积极参与中东事务,有所担当,才能树立大国的形象。     

论土耳其埃尔多安政府的外交政策

以埃尔多安为总理的土耳其政府,改变了土耳其以往单维度、不平衡的外交政策,开始向多维度、多样化的方向逐渐发展,积极扩展在中东、中亚、高加索、巴尔干、非洲等地区的影响力,以改善与邻国的关系,其外交政策显示出更大的独立性。尽管埃尔多安政府在外交上主要以西方国家尤其是美国作为外交基轴,但并未一味地为迎合美国而在国际事务中处处跟随其后,而是着力扩大国家影响力在国际舞台上寻求独立声音。中东剧变后,埃尔多安政府的外交政策表现出延续性和灵活性。需要指出的是,埃尔多安政府外交政策的调整并不意味着以西方国家为基轴的外交战略发生根本性扭转,外交政策的东移不过是亲西方政策的补充,旨在更好地完善土耳其的外交政策。