中亚文明视野中的上古西藏——读张云《上古西藏与波斯文明》

文章是对新著《上古西藏与波斯文明》一书的书评。文章对书中的基本内容与主要观点作了学术性的评述,并对这部新著中所涉及到的若干重大学术问题提出了一些意见,从中亚文明研究的视野对这一研究课题的学术价值与意义阐发了一些观点,以期引起学术界的关注与讨论。     

构建和谐社会与扩大中间阶层的统一性

中间阶层不断扩大所带来的直接启示是贫困阶层和富裕阶层都相对缩小,整个社会在利益分配上的冲突相对减弱,呈现出和谐社会的繁荣局面。同样,只有当社会经济文化水平有了很大的提高,中国基本进入比较发达的现代化阶段,有利于社会政治稳定的,有利于社会和谐发展的中间阶层才会最终形成。     

Quod vadis? The effect of youth unemployment and demographic pressure on migration in the MENA region

Recent trends in international migration reveal increasing migration outflows from Middle Eastern and North African (MENA) countries. This development is accompanied by a massive rise in youth unemployment and a major increase in the young population in this region. This paper provides a quantitative assessment of migration patterns and analyses the interacting effect of the unfavourable combination of youth unemployment and demographic pressure on migration decisions. Based on an assessment of bilateral migration flows from 19 MENA to 34 OECD countries between 1995 and 2020, we find that youth unemployment plays a significant role in explaining emigration flows from MENA countries. We also find that the migration-generating effect of youth unemployment is contingent upon demographic pressure in the youth cohorts and increases with an increasing number of youths.     

Using a grey relational analysis in an improved Grunow–Finke assessment tool to detect unnatural epidemics

The Grunow–Finke epidemiological assessment tool (GFT) has several limitations in its ability to differentiate between natural and man-made epidemics. Our study aimed to improve the GFT and analyze historical epidemics to validate the model. Using a gray relational analysis (GRA), we improved the GFT by revising the existing standards and adding five new standards. We then removed the artificial weights and final decision threshold. Finally, by using typically unnatural epidemic events as references, we used the GRA to calculate the unnatural probability and obtain assessment results. Using the advanced tool, we conducted retrospective and case analyses to test its performance. In the validation set of 13 historical epidemics, unnatural and natural epidemics were divided into two categories near the unnatural probability of 45%, showing evident differences (p < 0.01) and an assessment accuracy close to 100%. The unnatural probabilities of the Ebola virus disease of 2013 and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome of 2012 were 30.6% and 36.1%, respectively. Our advanced epidemic assessment tool improved the accuracy of the original GFT from approximately 55% to approximately 100% and reduced the impact of human factors on these outcomes effectively.     

Preparing Black and Latinx children for police encounters: Caregiver response profiles and child self-regulation

We hypothesized that the goodness-of-fit between profiles of observed, caregiver-provided ethnic–racial socialization (ERS), and child self-regulation (i.e., inhibitory control) would differentially associate with child behavioral outcomes. Conversations between 80 caregivers (45% Latinx; 55% Black) and their children (M _age  = 11.09; 46% female) were rated for ERS. Measures included an inhibitory control composite (ages 2.5–3.5) and the Child Behavior Checklist (CBCL; age 12). Three profiles were determined: Comprehensive (n  = 34), Reactive (n  = 8), and Pragmatic (n  = 38). Only youth with low inhibitory control in preschool appeared to benefit from Pragmatic ERS, whereas youth with normative or high inhibitory control in early childhood displayed lower internalizing and externalizing behaviors when they had Comprehensive or Reactive rather than Pragmatic caregivers.