Estimation of a standard measuring error by repeated measurements and sortings

A sorting-and-measuring machine (SMM) measures and sorts (classifies) on-line produced items into several groups according to their size. The measuring devices of the SMM perceive the actual item size with a random error ε and classify the item as being smaller than b iff z+ε<b. Here ε is a normal zero-mean r.v. with unknown standard deviation σ which is the main parameter characterizing the precision and technical condition of an SMM. The paper gives the following method of estimating σ. N₀ items are measured and N₁ of them are recognized by the SMM as belonging to the group a<z≤b. These N₁ items are sorted again and N₂ of them return to this group, these are sorted again, and so on. The estimation of σ is based on the statistics N_m/N_n. Moments of the ratio statistics N_m/N_n and their distributional properties are investigated. It turns out that the expected value of N_m/N_n depends almost linearly on σ which allows us to construct ‘almost’ unbiased estimators of type $\text{σ}\text{?}{}_{\mathrm{mn}}\text{=A}\textcolor{red}{}\text{N}{}_{\mathrm{m}}\text{/N}{}_{\mathrm{n}}\text{+B}$ with good propert including robustness with respect to the distribution of item size. Convex combinations of $\text{σ}\text{?}{}_{\mathrm{mn}}$ statistics are considered to obtain an estimator with minimal variance.     

China’s first priority in post-war state building: A wealthy state,or a strong army?

This analysis examined causal links in China’s defence–growth nexus in 1960–2016. The results show that better growth significantly reduces military-civilian ratio and propels military reforms. The unidirectional threshold causality from growth to defence shows that the military impact on a positive change in China’s growth is little in the long term. Conversely, the growth impact of a positive change in defence has accelerated after it reaches the threshold year in 1987. This finding explains why Chinese economy stagnated when defence was prioritised and why China has risen dramatically in the Far East after three decades of fast economic growth.     

Decentralization and growth: Do informal institutions and rule of law matter?

We develop a model of the interactions among decentralization, informal institutions and the rule of law. The model sheds light on the ambiguous empirical results reported in the literature regarding the growth effects of the policy of devolving fiscal responsibility to local governments. We find that the distribution of civicness within a country determines the magnitude of the effects of decentralization on its regional convergence, as well as whether decentralization fosters or dampens the country’s national growth. We perform a series of simulated “reforms” using Monte Carlo methods parameterized using OECD countries data set. We then test our findings using a panel data set of 23 OECD countries covering the period 1975–2010. We find that the short and the long run growth effect of decentralization policy depends on the size of the policy reform and can range from extremely negative to positive depending on the rule of law, the level of social capital and its regional dispersion, in line with the model predictions.     

Additive time-dependent hazard model with doubly truncated data

For doubly truncated data, i.e. the variables of interest are only observable if they lie in a certain random interval, an additive hazard model with time-dependent regression coefficients is investigated. Consistency and asymptotic normality are proven under mild assumptions. A simulation study investigates the finite sample properties and the influence of the truncation distribution on the estimation error. Finally, the method is applied to a doubly truncated data set of German companies, where the age at insolvency is of interest.     

Pseudo MLE for semiparametric transformation model with doubly truncated data

In this article, we consider the efficient estimation of the semiparametric transformation model with doubly truncated data. We propose a two-step approach for obtaining the pseudo maximum likelihood estimators (PMLE) of regression parameters. In the first step, the truncation time distribution is estimated by the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator (Shen, 2010a) when the distribution function $K$ of the truncation time is unspecified or by the conditional maximum likelihood estimator (Bilker and Wang, 1996) when $K$ is parameterized. In the second step, using the pseudo complete-data likelihood function with the estimated distribution of truncation time, we propose expectation–maximization algorithms for obtaining the PMLE. We establish the consistency of the PMLE. The simulation study indicates that the PMLE performs well in finite samples. The proposed method is illustrated using an AIDS data set.     

湘语“V+X+N（L）”的结构形式及来源

湖南境内湘语“V+X+N（L）”的结构形式共有四种：“V+在+N（L）”、“V+到+N（L）”，“V+体貌助词+N（L）”和“V+体貌助词+在+N（L）”。“V+体貌助词+在+N（L）”的来源于六朝时期就已常见的“（S-P）在NL”结构。     

Growth,inequality and innovation: A CGE analysis of India

This paper probes into the growth and distributional consequences of four basic policy options emanating from the three sources of economic growth, namely, physical capital, human capital and technological progress, with the help of a computable general equilibrium model of India. The simulation results show that, the efficacy of physical capital accumulation in augmenting growth and abating income inequality is greater than that of human capital accumulation. In the long term, however, the latter overtakes the former in promoting growth, but inequality worsens. When the two policies are commingled, growth improves but it continues to be inequality-augmenting. Finally, with concomitant Hicks-neutral technological progress, not only is growth enhanced further, but it turns out to be significantly inequality-mitigating. The emerging policy lesson is that any integrated policy of boosting investments in physical as well as human capital must be closely bound up with technological progress for growth to be inclusive.     

Intertemporal persistence in healthcare spending and utilization: the role of insurance

This paper develops a dynamic panel model of healthcare demand, with particular emphasis on the relationship between insurance and intertemporal persistence in demand. The model combines flexible marginal distributions for single-period demand with a tight intertemporal dynamic structure. The dynamic component follows a first-order nonlinear Markov process, which is constructed using copula functions. The model considers different insurance plans, including private plans with gatekeepers, private plans without gatekeepers, and public plans. Results indicate that individuals who lack insurance exhibit higher intertemporal persistence in medical spending compared to those with insurance coverage.     

绵阳市郊区几种蔬菜的施肥现状及平衡施肥方案

调查分析了绵阳市郊区 (石马、龙门、塘汛 )蕃茄、黄瓜、菜豆 3种蔬菜的平衡施肥状况。结果发现其施肥养分比 (N∶P2 O5∶K2 O)分别为 1∶0 .6 2∶0 .6 0、1∶0 .53∶0 .57、1∶0 .52∶0 .6 0 ,与其吸肥特性相比 ,施氮相对较多 ,施钾明显偏低 ,氮钾比失调。因此 ,推荐施肥方案要求控制氮肥 ,保证磷肥 ,增加钾肥用量 ,使施肥的N∶P2 O5∶K2 O分别应达到 1∶0 .6 2∶1.10 (蕃茄 ) ,1∶0 .55∶1.2 0 (黄瓜 ) ,1∶0 .50∶1.15(菜豆 )。     

Life satisfaction,income and personality

We use personality traits to better understand the relationship between income and life satisfaction. Personality traits mediate the effect of income on life satisfaction. The effect of neuroticism, which measures sensitivity to threat and punishment, is strong in both the British Household Panel Survey and the German Socioeconomic Panel. Neuroticism increases the usually observed concavity of the relationship: individuals with a higher neuroticism score enjoy extra income more than those with a lower score if they are poorer, and enjoy extra income less if they are richer. When the interaction between income and neuroticism is introduced, income does not have a significant effect on its own. To interpret the results, we present a simple model based on Prospect Theory, where we assume that: (i) life satisfaction is dependent on the gap between aspired and realized income, and this is modulated by neuroticism and (ii) income increases in aspirations with a slope less than unity, so that the gap between aspired and realized income increases with aspirations. From the estimation of this model we argue that poorer individuals tend to over-shoot in their aspirations, while the rich tend to under-shoot. The estimation of the model also shows a substantial effect of traits on income.