Bridging: Locating critical connectors in a network

This paper proposes several measures for bridging in networks derived from Granovetter's (1973) insight that links which reduce distances in a network are important structural bridges. Bridging is calculated by systematically deleting links and calculating the resultant changes in network cohesion (measured as the inverse average path length). The average change for each node's links provides an individual level measure of bridging. We also present a normalized version which controls for network size and a network-level bridging index. Bridging properties are demonstrated on hypothetical networks, empirical networks, and a set of 100 randomly generated networks to show how the bridging measure correlates with existing network measures such as degree, personal network density, constraint, closeness centrality, betweenness centrality, and vitality. Bridging and the accompanying methodology provide a family of new network measures useful for studying network structure, network dynamics, and network effects on substantive behavioral phenomenon.     

Bayesian Poisson models for the graphical combination of dependent expert information

A supra-Bayesian (SB) wants to combine the information from a group of k experts to produce her distribution of a probability θ. Each expert gives his counts of what he thinks are the numbers of successes and failures in a sequence of independent trials, each with probability θ of success. These counts, used as a surrogate for each expert's own individual probability assessment (together with his associated level of confidence in his estimate), allow the SB to build various plausible conjugate models. Such models reflect her beliefs about the reliability of different experts and take account of different possible patterns of overlap of information between them. Corresponding combination rules are then obtained and compared with other more established rules and their properties examined.     

民主社会主义主要观点的再探讨

19世纪后半期,发达资本主义国家在经济政治领域发生了一系列重要的新变化。主要由于对这些新变化对社会主义实现道路潜在影响的解读不同,世界社会主义运动最终发生严重分裂,产生了以伯恩施坦为鼻祖的民主社会主义派别(即伯恩施坦主义)和以列宁为旗手的科学社会主义派别(列宁主义)。百年回眸,社会主义运动潮起潮落,两派社会主义力量都有过实际的执政经验,获得了实践和检验自己主张的机会。在我们自身对社会主义的认识发生了深刻变化的今天,应该对民主社会主义的主要观点作新的解读。重新解读民主社会主义既是坚定中国特色社会主义信念的需要,也是学习借鉴民主社会主义经验教训的需要,是马克思主义理论研究与建设工程的有机组成部分。     

“互联网+”时代背景下高校网络舆情正向引导研究

在“互联网+”时代,网络信息资源日益增多。网络舆情管理成为高校思想政治教育工作的重要组成部分,它向高校的思想政治教育工作者提出了新的要求和挑战。分析高校网络舆情现状,提出构建高校网络舆情正向引导机制,探索高校网络舆情正向引导路径,具有十分重要的现实意义。     

朝野禁政观念与清末禁烟激变

清末禁烟是晚清历次鸦片禁政中规模和影响较大的事件。清末朝野各方对待鸦片禁政的认识颇有区别,知识界和官方的立场接近一致,而烟农和烟商则以不同的方式加以抵制。随后酿成的禁政激变风起云涌,愈演愈烈,尤以烟农抵制禁种罂粟的"民变"最为激烈,使鸦片禁政的历程充满了血雨腥风。朝野对禁政激变的反应十分复杂,当局的善后筹划和应对政策软弱无力,致使纷乱局面难以控制。清末禁烟虽系善政,但时人看法与当今评说颇有距离,其中蕴涵的学术载道的现象值得思量。     

提高民生新闻舆论监督水平

新闻媒体对于民生问题，既要热情关心，敢于为民鼓与呼，又要防止片面反映群众问题，要具体问题具体分析，而分析的依据就是有关政策和法规。否则，就不能做到使党和政府及读者都满意，也不能提高舆论监督水平。     

完善养老服务体系的构想

我国目前养老基础设施还比较薄弱,体系不甚健全。为破解养老难题,需要不断完善涵盖养老服务机构、服务制度、供养服务、医疗服务、人力资源开发等内容的服务体系。笔者试就此作相关阐述。     

Investing in people: The role of social networks in the diffusion of a large-scale fraud

This paper draws from social network analysis and diffusion theory to study the case of a mortgage fraud that spread undetected for five years in British Columbia, Canada. The fraud is studied from the point of view of 559 victims who unknowingly invested in the Ponzi scheme which defrauded 2285 investors for a total of $ 240 million dollars. Results show diffusion played a role in the success of the Eron fraud even though the fraud ended before it reached the final stages of a classic diffusion process. A closer look at the social structure of the Eron network revealed the elements that made the fraud successful: (1) change agents, particularly Eron principals and Eron employees invested their personal time and effort recruiting investors; (2) independent brokers actively spread the fraud to their clients; and (3) opinion leaders, investors themselves, unknowingly spread the fraud through their social networks by recruiting their friends and family to invest in Eron.     

名微博舆情调查及其对青年的影响

名微博具有"裂变式"的传播路径、"去层级"的互动交流、"导向性"的名人舆论场等特点。利用浙江微博平台展开的舆情调查,着重了解名微博的舆论领域、舆论关注度、舆情态度、重要关注点、影响人群结构、舆情触发及传播机制等情况。名微博舆情传播的"涵化效应"推动了青年参与社会舆论,名微博舆情导向的"集聚效应"引导青年扩宽人际圈,名微博言论植入的"微博营销"引导青年改变消费观念。因此,从政府、用户、运营商3个角度完善体制机制、制度保驾护航,加强微博引导,完善平台管理,从而规范对青年的影响。     

提升党报舆论引导力的思考

提升党报的舆论引导力是党报履行使命、净化舆论环境的需要,也是党报与新兴媒体竞争的需要.提升党报舆论引导力,必须科学定位党报的读者群,找准提升舆论引导力的着力点,改善党报的发行工作.