最优停止理论在电子供应链伙伴关系评价中的应用

本文针对电子供应链伙伴的选择与评价过程，根据最优停止理论，建立了电子供应链伙伴的数据信息校对最优问题的数学模型，对这一决策问题进行了概括。在此基础上，针对两种具体模型，提出了最优停止时间存在的条件及最优解，并利用截尾法给出了实际应用中的计算步骤。     

Experimental designs for binary data in switching measurements on superconducting Josephson junctions

Summary.  We study the optimal design of switching measurements of small Josephsonjunction circuits which operate in the macroscopic quantum tunnelling regime. In the experiment, sequences of current pulses are applied to the Josephson junction sample, while the voltage over the structure is monitored. The appearance of a voltage pulse to a single applied current pulse, being governed by the laws of quantum mechanics, is purely random. Starting from the D -optimality criterion we derive the optimal design for the estimation of the unknown parameters of the underlying Gumbel-type distribution. As a practical method for the measurements, we propose a sequential design that combines heuristic search for initial estimates and maximum likelihood estimation. The design presented has immediate applications in the area of superconducting electronics, implying faster data acquisition. The experimental results presented confirm the usefulness of the method.     

“乡音”与“新声”：论商标名之翻译

商标名具有多重属性特征、价值及功能，这使得其翻译标准及原则具有多元互补性。针对当前商标名翻译实践中难以兼顾商标的多重属性这一不足，提出在翻译过程中应当遵循最佳关联原则，以此来有效地指导商标名翻译。具体而言，在商标名的翻译策略上应当坚持仿译与创译并重的原则，可在动态优化组合的基础上综合运用多种翻译方法来达到“综合”的、也即最佳的广告效果。     

Adapting the optimal job search model for active labour market policy

Summary.  The structural theoretical framework for the analysis of duration of unemployment has been the optimal job search model. Recent advances in computational techniques in Bayesian inference now facilitate the analysis of incomplete data sets and the recovery of structural model parameters. The paper uses these methods on a UK data set of the long-term unemployed to illustrate how the optimal job search model can be adapted to model the effects of an active labour market policy. Without such an adaptation our conclusion is that the simple optimal job search model may not fit empirical unemployment data and could thus lead to a misspecified econometric model and incorrect parameter estimates.     

A Theory of Optimal Inheritance Taxation

This paper derives optimal inheritance tax formulas that capture the key equity‐efficiency trade‐off, are expressed in terms of estimable sufficient statistics, and are robust to the underlying structure of preferences. We consider dynamic stochastic models with general and heterogeneous bequest tastes and labor productivities. We limit ourselves to simple but realistic linear or two‐bracket tax structures to obtain tractable formulas. We show that long‐run optimal inheritance tax rates can always be expressed in terms of aggregate earnings and bequest elasticities with respect to tax rates, distributional parameters, and social preferences for redistribution. Those results carry over with tractable modifications to (a) the case with social discounting (instead of steady‐state welfare maximization), (b) the case with partly accidental bequests, (c) the standard Barro–Becker dynastic model. The optimal tax rate is positive and quantitatively large if the elasticity of bequests to the tax rate is low, bequest concentration is high, and society cares mostly about those receiving little inheritance. We propose a calibration using micro‐data for France and the United States. We find that, for realistic parameters, the optimal inheritance tax rate might be as large as 50%–60%—or even higher for top bequests, in line with historical experience.     

我国汇率政策的效应及汇率制度的选择

我国 1994年以后的汇率机制 ,在名义上是“有管理的浮动汇率制”,但实际上却是一种与美元挂钩的固定汇率制度。用最优货币区理论假说来衡量 ,这一制度与它所要求的经济条件之间存在很大反差 ,所以 ,人民币汇率制度存在重新选择的必然性。由于在货币政策的独立性、固定汇率制度和资本流动之间存在着所谓的“三元悖论”,所以选择人民币汇率制度时 ,必须寻求最能适应国情的组合。笔者认为 ,“目标区汇率制度”应当成为我国近期汇率制度的选择目标     

Classification when the covariate vectors have unequal dimensions

This article deals with the problem of statistical classification when the covariate vectors can have unequal dimensions. Representations of the theoretically best classifier are given. We also propose a number of procedures for constructing consistent classifiers. Both parametric and nonparametric situations are considered but the emphasis is on the latter case. Numerical examples are also given.     

Restricted optimal progressive censoring

Unlike traditional Type I and II censoring, progressive censoring allows for removal of surviving units throughout the life test. This feature has several benefits and in the literature, much work has been done on inference based on progressively censored samples and identifying optimal progressive censoring schemes. In this paper, we introduce restricted progressive censoring and within this class, the problem of identifying optimal schemes under different minimum variance criteria. We explore these plans geometrically as well as provide some useful properties. In particular, we look at the vertices of the set of admissible plans and their role in approximating optimal plans. We also provide computational results for illustrative purposes.     

An alternative assessment of global climate policies

This paper analyzes alternative pricing schemes for funding investment in climate policies. This paper proposes a new policy scenario, explicitly disentangling the issue of burden sharing of financing new investments from the issue of taxation energy consumption and therefor emissions. We compare traditional allocation schemes with an optimal Ramsey pricing by applying demand elasticity values, derived from empirical estimations of household behavior for the 106 leading countries in the world, representing around 90% of total world energy consumption and carbon emissions in 2014. We calculate country-specific alternative taxation options: uniform, equitable and Ramsey pricing schemes, applied to households, assessing the related welfare effects. Our results show that the optimal pricing scheme, for a given investment need, can improve world welfare at the expenses of equitable considerations. In addition, the aggregate societal benefit outweighs the losses associated with specific group of countries, paving the way for easier political agreement, using compensation schemes to redistribute the proceeds.     

Penalized optimal designs for dose-finding

Optimal design under a cost constraint is considered, with a scalar coefficient setting the compromise between information and cost. It is shown that for suitable cost functions, by increasing the value of the coefficient one can force the support points of an optimal design measure to concentrate around points of minimum cost. An example of adaptive design in a dose-finding problem with a bivariate binary model is presented, showing the effectiveness of the approach.