Maximizing survival time in a random walk on an interval

A gambler buys N tokens that enable him to play N rounds of the following game. A symmetric random walk on a discrete interval { ? r, …, r} starts from the point 0. The gambler knows only the number of steps made so far, but is unaware of the current position of the walk. Once the walk hits one of the barriers ? r or r for the first time in the current round, the round ends with no payoff. The gambler can start a new round by inserting a new token, if there are any tokens left. The gambler can end the game at any time getting the payoff equal to the number of steps made in the current round. We find the optimal stopping strategy for this game and calculate the expected payoff once the optimal strategy is applied.     

PERCEIVED INFORMATION STRUCTURE: IMPLICATIONS FOR DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM DESIGN

Top-level decision making in business organizations is characterized by high degrees of uncertainty, incomplete information, and conflicting objectives. To support top-level decision making effectively, decision support systems (DSSs) have been proposed. Information supplied by a DSS must be selective in that not all possible information sets may be feasibly or economically represented in the data base. This study suggests that discovery of perceptual complexity (dimensionality) of information items, and the subsequent categorization of decision makers having the same perceptions of those information items, is a first step in the ultimate design of an effective DSS. Through the use of multidimensional scaling in a field setting, this study shows the feasibility of creating relatively homogeneous groups of decision makers according to the content and number of dimensions associated with various information items. Further results of the research suggest that information can be tailored to classes of users, which has cost-benefit implications as well as the potential to improve the quality of the resultant decisions.     

考虑排放成本的共享电动汽车和共享停车位最优组合定价研究

相比于燃油汽车而言,共享电动汽车具有排放低,能耗小的优点。然而城市中心区域共享电动汽车有限的停车泊位阻碍了共享电动汽车的出行需求。本文首先分析了在城市中心区域的办公建筑物附近建立毗邻居住区共享停车位作为共享电动汽车的补充停车网点的可行性;其次,提出了以"共享电动汽车+共享停车位"(Shared Electric Vehicle+Shared Parking, SEV+SP)相结合的方式,作为早高峰私有小汽车和公共交通出行的一种补充方式,并基于瓶颈经济学探讨SEV+SP新出行模式的定价将如何影响社会效益、交通拥堵和系统交通排放成本。最后本文设计案例分析综合考虑社会效益和系统交通排放成本时,共享电动汽车时变租赁费用和共享停车费用的最优组合定价,以此为SEV+SP新出行模式提供定价依据。结果建议综合考虑社会效益和交通排放成本时,应设置较低的共享停车费用和较高的时变租赁费用;建议管理者在鼓励SEV+SP出行模式时,应充分考虑交通系统的拥堵压力,从减少交通排放的角度,应选取较小的权重指标。