BP神经网络财务危机预警实证研究

财务危机预警具有重要的经济研究价值。在考虑中国现行会计信息供给状况基础上,构建了包含偿债能力、资产管理能力、盈利能力、成长性、现金流量以及会计信息披露质量的六大类预警指标体系。以沪、深两市上市公司为样本,比较了经秩和检验前后,BP神经网络模型的预警效果。结果显示：BP神经网络模型在中国上市公司财务危机预警中具有良好的应用价值,特别是经秩和检验以后,模型判别准确率显著提高,具有很强的优越性。     

Understanding pathways leading to stillbirth: The role of care-seeking and care received during pregnancy and childbirth in Kabul province,Afghanistan

BackgroundThe underlying pathways leading to stillbirth in low- and middle-income countries are not well understood. Context-specific understanding of how and why stillbirths occur is needed to prioritise interventions and identify barriers to their effective implementation and uptake.AimTo explore the contribution of contextual, individual, household-level and health system factors to stillbirth in Afghanistan.MethodsUsing a qualitative approach, we conducted semi-structured in-depth interviews with women and men that experienced stillbirth, female elders, community health workers, healthcare providers, and government officials in Kabul province, Afghanistan between October-November 2017. We used thematic analysis to identify contributing factors and developed a conceptual map describing possible pathways to stillbirth.FindingsWe found that low utilisation and access to healthcare was a key contributing factor, as were unmanaged conditions in pregnancy that increased women’s risk of complications and stillbirth. Sociocultural factors related to the treatment of women and perceptions about medical interventions deprived women of interventions that could potentially prevent stillbirth. The quality of care from public and private providers during pregnancy and childbirth was a recurring concern exacerbated by health system constraints that led to unnecessary delays; while environmental factors linked to the ongoing conflict were also perceived to contribute to stillbirth. These pathways were underscored by social, cultural, economic factors and individual perceptions that contributed to the three-delays.DiscussionEfforts are needed at the community-level to facilitate care-seeking and raise awareness of stillbirth risk factors and the facility-level to strengthen antenatal and childbirth care quality, ensure culturally appropriate and respectful care, and reduce treatment delays.     

Perinatal factors related to post-traumatic stress disorder symptoms 1–5 years following birth

BackgroundThe relationship between perinatal variables and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms was studied. However, the role of some variables in PTSD symptoms is unclear.AimDetermine the prevalence of PTSD symptoms after 1 year postpartum and their relationship with perinatal variables.MethodsA cross-sectional study with 1531 puerperal women in Spain. Data were collected on socio-demographic variables, perinatal variables (maternal characteristics, procedures during labour and birth, birth outcomes and time since birth) and the newborn. An online questionnaire was used, which included the Perinatal Post-traumatic Stress Questionnaire (PPQ). Crude and adjusted odds ratios (OR) were calculated using binary logistic regression.Findings7.2% (110) of the women were identified as being at risk for probable PTSD symptoms. Protective factors were having a birth plan respected (aOR 0.44; 95%CI 0.19−0.99), use of epidural analgesia (aOR 0.44; 95%CI 0.24−0.80) and experiencing skin-to-skin contact (aOR 0.33; 95%CI 0.20−0.55). Risk factors were instrumental birth (aOR 3.32; 95%CI1.73−3.39), caesarean section (aOR 4.80; 95%CI 2.51–9.15), receiving fundal pressure (aOR 1.72; 95%CI 1.08–2.74) and suffering a third/fourth degree perineal tear (aOR 2.73; 95%CI 1.27–5.86). The area under the model’s ROC curve was 0.82 (95%CI 0.79−0.83).ConclusionsWomen who experience a normal birth, are psychologically prepared for birth (for example, through use of a birth plan), experience skin-to-skin contact with their newborn, and had a sense of physical control through the use of epidural analgesia, are less likely to experience childbirth as traumatic.     

Perinatal palliative care after a stillbirth—Midwives’ experiences of using Cubitus baby

BackgroundUsually, parents remain at the hospital for two or three days after a stillbirth in Sweden, and the routine until recently has been to place the baby in a refrigerator during the night. A device, the Cubitus Baby, a specially designed cot with cooling blocks, was implemented in all 47 delivery wards during 2013 and 2014.AimTo investigate the midwives’ experiences of using the device when supporting parents after the stillbirth.MethodQuestionnaires were completed by midwives, and a single open-ended question was analysed using content analysis.Findings154 midwives responded. Four categories were identified, with two subgroups in each category: Feelings of dignity (Satisfactory feelings in working with grief; Design and function), Caring cooling (The cooling function; A cold baby), Time for farewell (Time together; Time to make your own choice) and Satisfying feelings for the parents (The parents and Cubitus Baby; The possibility for bonding).ConclusionsThe midwives found that this practice provided a more dignified and worthwhile form of care. There is no need to separate the stillborn baby from the parents during their stay at the hospital. In modern perinatal palliative care, it is not justifiable to place a stillborn baby in a refrigerator.     

我国妇女围产期保健服务利用的影响因素

根据国家人口与计划生育委员会2001年全国计划生育/生殖健康调查资料,对我国城市、农村妇女围产期保健的现状进行比较研究.结果显示:城市妇女的围产期保健服务利用的总体水平高于农村;围产期保健利用的影响因素主要有妇女年龄、民族、文化程度、亲生子女数等;五期教育等宣传品的影响没有显著差别.     

Qualitative insights into women's personal experiences of perinatal depression and anxiety

Background and aimSymptoms of perinatal depression and anxiety are usually described and understood from a nosological perspective. This research sought to gain insight into women's lived experience of postnatal depression and anxiety, the factors that contribute to these symptoms and the context in which they develop.MethodFace to face and telephone interviews were conducted with 28 women from metropolitan and rural areas across Australia, who had experienced postnatal depression and/or anxiety within the last five years. Analysis was conducted from a grounded theory perspective.FindingsParticular symptoms of anxiety and depression develop in the context of the numerous changes inherent to the transition to motherhood and contribute to a common experience of frustration and loss. Symptoms were also associated with feelings of dissatisfaction with the pregnancy and motherhood experience.ConclusionsThe findings provide useful insights into women's experiences of mental health symptoms during the perinatal period, how these symptoms present and the factors involved in their development and maintenance. The need to consider women's perspectives to develop resources and health promotions strategies, as well as within the context of relationships with health professionals is highlighted. The study emphasizes the need for greater, more accurate information surrounding perinatal depression and the need to increase the profile and awareness of anxiety disorders.     

Romantic Relationships,Relationship Styles,Coping Strategies,and Psychological Distress among Chinese and Australian Young Adults

This study examined the association between relationship styles, coping strategies, and psychological distress among 144 Anglo‐Australian and 250 Hong Kong Chinese undergraduate students. The results indicated that relationship styles (secure, clingy, and fickle) influenced psychological distress through their association with coping strategies (avoidance and self‐punishment). Society of residence was a moderating factor for the association between clingy relationship style and psychological distress. Females also reported higher levels of psychological distress than males. Among participants who had experienced a romantic relationship break up, participants endorsing clingy relationship style and those whose partners initiated the break up expressed more hurt in comparison, whereas those who endorsed avoidance strategy reported less hurt. The results of the present study also suggested that psychosocial variables (relationship styles, coping strategies) were generally more important than demographic factors (e.g., age) in predicting mental health outcomes. However, relationship styles and coping strategies may operate differently under different contexts.     

History of perinatal loss and maternal–fetal attachment behaviors

BackgroundMaternal–fetal attachment (MFA) is an important requirement for optimal maternal–infant adaptation. Current studies showed conflicting findings about whether a history of perinatal loss (fetal/neonatal death) affects maternal attachment in pregnancy.Research question“Does a history of perinatal loss affect maternal–fetal attachment behaviors?”MethodsOne hundred women with and without a history of PL were recruited using a convenience method of sampling, from prenatal care services affiliated to Shahid Behesti University of Medical Sciences. Data collected by questionnaires from a convenience sample of multiparous women in the 3rd trimester of pregnancy with no surviving children were compared with data from a selected cohort of primigravid women. The two groups of women were matched for health and literacy. The data collected included demographic characteristics and responses to 24 questions in five groups of behaviors on the Persian version of Cranly's Maternal–Fetal Attachment Scale. Data were analyzed by SPSS 13 and using t, ANOVA, Chi square, Pearson correlation and Mann–Whitney tests.FindingsFinding showed that total score of MFA for women with a history of PL (68.95 ± 9.20%) is not significantly different from this score for women without such a history (71.22 ± 11.75%; p < 0.05). Women with a history of PL had a significantly lower score for a subgroup of behaviors “differentiation of self from fetus” compared to women without of a history of PL (78.25 vs. 83.21%; p < 0.05). But, there were no statistically significant differences between two groups respecting to other subgroups of behaviors between two groups.ConclusionIn this study, a history of pregnancy loss was found to be associated with disturbances in the group of maternal–fetal attachment behaviors related to “differentiation of self from fetus” in a subsequent pregnancy.     

Unemployment and psychological distress among young adults in the Nordic countries: A review of the literature

This article reviews Nordic research, published from 1995 and onwards, on the relationship between unemployment and mental health among young adults. Cross‐sectional, longitudinal and time‐series studies are included. Cross‐sectional studies show that the unemployed experience more mental health problems than the non‐unemployed. Leaving unemployment is associated with increased well‐being. Economic problems, feelings of shame and poor social support increase the likelihood of psychological distress. The longitudinal studies show that unemployment increases the risk of psychological distress and attempted suicide, after initial mental health status and confounding factors are accounted for. The relationship remains significant when time‐invariant characteristics of the individuals are controlled for. The time‐series studies found no relationship between unemployment and suicide, but levels of psychological distress were found to vary with changes in the labour market. This relationship remained significant after excluding the non‐employed, indicating that unemployment trends have effects beyond those directly associated with unemployment.     

Maternal Hurricane Exposure and Fetal Distress Risk

Logistic regression and spatial analytic techniques are used to model fetal distress risk as a function of maternal exposure to Hurricane Andrew. First, monthly time series compare the proportion of infants born distressed in hurricane affected and unaffected areas. Second, resident births are analyzed in Miami‐Dade and Broward counties, before, during, and after Hurricane Andrew. Third, resident births are analyzed in all Florida locales with 100,000 or more persons, comparing exposed and unexposed gravid females. Fourth, resident births are analyzed along Hurricane Andrew's path from southern Florida to northeast Mississippi. Results show that fetal distress risk increases significantly with maternal exposure to Hurricane Andrew in second and third trimesters, adjusting for known risk factors. Distress risk also correlates with the destructive path of Hurricane Andrew, with higher incidences of fetal distress found in areas of highest exposure intensity. Hurricane exposed African‐American mothers were more likely to birth distressed infants. The policy implications of in utero costs of natural disaster exposure are discussed.