A time series approach to life table construction

This paper deals with the construction of the life table. A discussion of basic facts about the life table is followed by the proposal of a nonstationary, autoregressive model for the life table. The moment structure of the nonstationary, autoregressive model is developed. Some estimation procedures are proposed followed by several examples.     

Distribution of busy period in stochastic fluid models

We consider the busy period in a stochastic fluid flow model with infinite buffer where the input and output rates are controlled by a finite homogeneous Markov process. We derive an explicit expression for the distribution of the busy period and we obtain an algorithm to compute it which exhibits nice numerical properties.

     

BATHTUB-TYPE CURVES IN RELIABILITY AND BEYOND

Finding optimal, or at least good, maintenance and repair policies is crucial in reliability engineering. Likewise, describing life phases of human mortality is important when determining social policy or insurance premiums. In these tasks, one searches for distributions to fit data and then makes inferences about the population(s). In the present paper, we focus on bathtub‐type distributions and provide a view of certain problems, methods and solutions, and a few challenges, that can be encountered in reliability engineering, survival analysis, demography and actuarial science.     

绿洲与绿洲城市：从农牧时代到工业时代新疆城市发展的特点

新疆特殊的自然地理环境,尤其是其独特的绿洲生态系统对新疆城市的影响显著.绿洲和绿洲城市成为新疆城市区别于中国其他区域城市的一个十分重要的特点.农牧业时代新疆绿洲城市的特点主要表现为两个方面,一是绿洲城市与绿洲具有一致性特点--不平衡性、分散性和封闭性;二是新疆绿洲城市数量少、规模小,长期发展缓慢.进入工业时代,新疆绿洲城市的发展出现新的特点,一是城市数量增多,城市规模扩大,初步形成绿洲城市区域体系;二是绿洲城市从封闭走向开放;三是经济城市从单一功能向综合性多功能发展,城市功能不断强化;四是绿洲城市出现可持续发展的新趋势.在国家实施"一带一路"战略的背景下,新疆绿洲城市迎来了新的发展机遇.     

喀喇汗王朝时期的社会文化

喀喇汗王朝 (840 年~1212 年) 在我国漠北建立鄂尔浑回纥汗国之后, 以回鹘为主体西迁的”九姓铁勒”或“九姓回纥”部落在西域建立了地域非常辽阔、文化高度发展、统治时间比较长的强大王朝。本文概述了喀喇汗王朝时期的维吾尔族语言文化、科学文化、音乐艺术等社会文化。     

对赫哲族聚居区"十五"期间经济和社会发展的调查分析

本文作者在"十五"期间深入赫哲族聚居区,对赫哲族人民在"十五"期间经济和社会生活各方面所取得的成就进行了调查和分析,向我们展示了赫哲族在"十五"期间全面建设小康社会取得的新成就.     

唐宋时期回族先民对西北商业经济的开发与贡献

重视商业经济,是伊斯兰教的特点之一。唐宋时期,伴随着伊斯兰教的传入,回族先民对西北商业经济进行了开发。他们一方面继承了阿拉伯商业的传统,另一方面在新的环境下,又有所创新、有所发展。在长期不断的开发中,为西北区域经济的繁荣与发展,做出了重要的贡献。     

Intrapartum cardiotocograph monitoring and perinatal outcomes for women at risk: Literature review

ProblemCaesarean section rates have risen in high-income countries. One of the potential drivers for this is the widespread use of CTG monitoring.BackgroundIntrapartum cardiotocograph monitoring is considered to be indicated for women at risk for poor perinatal outcome.AimThis systematic literature review with meta-analysis examined randomised controlled trials and non-experimental research to determine whether cardiotocograph monitoring rather than intermittent auscultation during labour was associated with changes in perinatal mortality or cerebral palsy rates for high-risk women.MethodsA systematic search for research published up to 2019 was conducted using PubMed, CINAHL, Cochrane, and Web of Science databases. Non-experimental and randomised controlled trial research in populations of women at risk which compared intrapartum cardiotocography with intermittent auscultation and reported on stillbirth, neonatal mortality, perinatal mortality and/or cerebral palsy were included. Relative risks were calculated from extracted data, and meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials was undertaken.FindingsNine randomised controlled trials and 26 non-experimental studies were included. Meta-analysis of pooled data from RCTs in mixed- and high-risk populations found no statistically significant differences in perinatal mortality rates. The majority of non-experimental research was at critical risk of bias and should not be relied on to inform practice. Cardiotocograph monitoring during preterm labour was associated with a higher incidence of cerebral palsy.DiscussionResearch evidence failed to demonstrate perinatal benefits from intrapartum cardiotocograph monitoring for women at risk for poor perinatal outcome.ConclusionThere is an urgent need for well-designed research to consider whether intrapartum cardiotocograph monitoring provides benefits.     

Factors associated with a positive childbirth experience in Brazilian women: A cross-sectional study

BackgroundHaving a positive childbirth experience is an increasingly valued outcome. Few studies evaluated the women’s satisfaction with childbirth through face-to-face interviews out of the health service environment. The objective of this study was to identify factors associated with a higher level of satisfaction with the childbirth experience among Brazilian women.MethodsThis cross-sectional study involved 287 women giving birth in two hospitals in southern Brazil. Women who gave birth to healthy newborns at term were randomly selected. Face-to-face interviews were conducted 31–37 days after delivery, at the mothers’ homes, using a structured questionnaire. Satisfaction with the childbirth experience was measured using a Likert-type scale ranging from very satisfied to very dissatisfied. Prevalence ratios (PR) were estimated using Poisson regression with robust variance.ResultsFollowing hierarchical multivariate analysis, the following factors remained associated with a higher level of satisfaction with the childbirth experience: being satisfied with antenatal care (PR = 1.30; 95% confidence interval [95%CI] = 1.06−1.59), understanding the information provided by health professionals during labor and delivery (PR = 1.40; 95%CI = 1.01−1.95), not having reported disrespect and abuse (PR = 1.53; 95%CI = 1.01−2.31), and having had the baby put to the breast within the first hour of life (PR = 1.63; 95%CI = 1.26−2.11). No association was observed with type of delivery or hospital status (public or private).ConclusionsA higher level of satisfaction with the childbirth experience is related to satisfactory antenatal care, a non-abusive, respectful, and informative environment during childbirth, and to the opportunity to breastfeed the baby within the first hour of life. In clinical practice, greater attention to these basic principles of care during pregnancy and delivery could provide more positive experiences during birth.     

建构与拆解:新中国“四十年”文学的历史叙述

新中国以来的四十年文学,自始至终都对历史叙述保持着浓厚的兴趣。此间各个时期的文学对历史的叙述都不是在纯粹审美修辞的维面上展开的,它们分别肩负了不同的意识形态启蒙使命。"十七年文学"为巩固现实政权的合理/合法性提供了形象上的依据。新时期文学接续"十七年文学"的传统,以笔为枪,控诉和反思刚过去不久的民族劫乱,探索国家发展的前途。质疑过去文学赋予历史话语的崇高意义,新历史小说以解构的立场与姿态,通过具体的艺术实践,颠覆了历史话语的神话。新历史小说以消解"十七年文学"权威历史叙述为初衷,然而后来的种种迹象表明,它正沦为一种新的历史叙述霸权。