百年学术名家留给我们的精神财富

《世纪学人 ,百年影像》共收录当代对社会科学做出突出贡献的老一辈科学家 2 62人 ,分析他们的研究领域和籍贯 ,能够发现 2 0世纪学术发展的领头羊以及学术中心之所在。而他们对各自学科的精辟认识和表述 ,尤其在做人、治学方面的真知灼见 ,则为我们留下了巨大的精神财富。他们强调做人是第一位的 ,认为真诚是沟通做人与治学的桥梁 ,是实现做人与治学两位一体的契合点。甘于寂寞、处心一志、好学深思、勤于耕耘、谦虚向上 ,是他们事业成功的主要因素 ,同时又是做人治学的重要体现。他们在耄耋之年 ,不辞辛劳 ,勤奋工作 ,甘为人梯 ,不知老之将至 ,表现了作为优秀知识分子特有的爱国奉献、奋发向上的精神     

欧洲债务危机与中国社会养老保险制度改革——基于公共养老金替代率视角的分析

经济增长缓慢、人口老龄化、社会养老保障财政收支失衡与欧债危机密切相关.欧洲国家刚性的养老金替代率在人口持续老龄化和经济增长缓慢前提下必然导致养老金财政赤字不断扩大,国家财政债务危机不断升级.较高的养老金替代率实际上反映了代际负担的不可持续性,所以合适的养老金替代率的确定无论对世界还是对中国都具有重要意义.有鉴于此,未富先老的中国应该坚持带有生产主义特征的社会养老保障模式,构筑多支柱、多来源的退休金体系,适当降低基础养老金替代率,并构建养老金负担与给付的自动调整机制,从而保障养老金财政的长期平衡和社会保障制度的可持续发展.     

中国少数民族村寨人口流动特征及其影响因素分析

根据28个不同的少数民族村寨的人口流动数据资料,将其分为推力拉力不足类型、推力拉力共同作用类型、文化风俗影响类型、开发程度制约类型、开放程度推动类型、跨境收入拉动类型6种,对其人口流动的特征、规律和影响因素进行了归纳。     

中国人口老龄化区域溢出与分布差异的空间计量经济学研究

将空间因素纳入我国人口老龄化问题的研究框架,对各地区人口老龄化的空间分布特征进行概括和探索性空间数据分析,利用空间计量经济学理论方法和空间误差模型,对各要素影响作用的方向和大小进行实证研究,最后得出综合结论和政策建议。除老龄化惯性、人口增长以外,首次对人口老龄化区域溢出机制进行了重点阐述。我国人口老龄化区域溢出作用不仅客观存在,而且影响显著,这一发现从空间维度拓宽了研究视野,为我国人口老龄化问题理论研究和政策制定提供了有益的借鉴。     

Determinants of fertility levels and change among developed countries: 1958–1978

This article provides a multivariate cross-national test of the hypothesis that national population/family planning policies have effected levels, and changes in fertility in developed nations over the past two decades. Variation is assessed in the total fertility rates (TFR) in 1978, and in the change in these rates between 1958 and 1978, among thirty developed countries. Measures include socioeconomic development, divorce, percent in consensual unions, female labor force participation, abortion policy, and level of contraceptive use by married couples and, government population/family planning policy. Seventy percent of the variation in 1978 TFR is related to the percent contracepting, female labor force, and the population/family planning policy measures. These are the only measures with significant direct effects. A longitudinal analysis of 1958 to 1978 change in TFRs is also conducted. This model increases R² to 75%, and the three independent variables remain significant. Implications of these findings for policy makers interested in increasing or decreasing fertility rates are noted.     

Designing two factor experiments for selecting interactions

This paper considers the problem of devising a single stage procedure for selecting the treatment combination associated with the largest interaction in a two-factor rfx× c experiment having independent normally distributed observations with common known variance. The intuitive procedure based on the best linear unbiased estimators of the population interactions is employed. Initially an indifference zone formulation is used; the problem of determining the least favorable configuration is reduced to a nonlinear programming problem with log concave objective function and a convex polytope as feasible region. A solution technique is introduced in the context of an illustrative example. The problem is also considered using a preferred population formulation; this approach requires a strengthened version of the indifference zone probability requirement. It is shown that the same sample size guarantees this requirement as does the earlier one.     

我国农村居民生育意愿转变分析

农村居民生育意愿真正开始转变是在全国推行计划生育以后,目前已发生了极大的转变,主要特征是:以期望生育两个孩子且一男一女为主流意识,还有相当比例自愿只生一个,"多子多福"观念基本没有市场,对孩子质量的追求正在替代对数量的追求。生育意愿转变的标准不应是生育政策,而应以符合可持续发展理念的要求为标准。     

如东县计划生育优质服务“三询”评估制

对改进计划生育目标管理责任制考核办法的必要性及建立计划生育优质服务以面询、电询、函询为主的"三询"评估制的必要性进行了论述,并结合如东县"三询"评估制的实践情况,对其科学性、可行性和可操作性进行了阐述,旨在为调整计划生育责任制考核机制,推动计划生育优质服务提供新的思路.     

Optimal estimation of a finite population mean under generalized random permutation models

Employing certain generalized random permutation models and a general class of linear estimators of a finite population mean, it is shown that many of the conventional estimators are “optimal” in the sense of minimum average mean square error. Simple proofs are provided by using a well-known theorem on UMV estimation. The results also cover certain simple response error situations.     

Controlling health care costs: An evaluation of strategies

There has been much discussion about the factors underlying inflation in the health care sector and the means to moderate increases in health expenditures. This paper identifies various costcontainment strategies and synthesizes research findings that may be helpful in evaluating their effectiveness. The review demonstrates the complexity of the issues and relationships that must be confronted and understood in cost containment. The delivery system is shown to be not well-suited to improving efficiency and restraining health care expenditure. Any single strategy, whether it involves restructuring the market or more direct regulation, cannot in itself accomplish the combination of expenditure control and adequacy of services that is socially desirable. A number of mutually reinforcing strategies are required. Finally, more empirical and analytical information on incentives, provider and regulatory decisionmaking, costs of regulation, and the dynamics of negotiation, is essential for the design of an effective costcontainment program.