湖南农村人口老龄化对社会主义新农村建设的影响

湖南省农村地区已进入老龄社会且农村人口老龄化已较过去明显加快。这种状况对湖南农村地区的社会主义新农村建设带来深刻的影响。新农村建设必须解决了农村地区老年人的养老、医疗等问题,因此,必须建立一个以社会保障为主体的健康老龄社会,以建设人人共享改革发展成果的社会主义和谐农村。     

Intergenerational Support and Depression Among Elders in Rural China: Do Daughters‐In‐Law Matter?

This study examined the influence of intergenerational assistance with household chores and personal care from sons, daughters, and daughters‐in‐law on the depressive symptoms of older adults in rural China. The sample derived from rural Anhui Province, a region with a strong hierarchy of support preferences that leads with sons and their families. We used data from a random sample of 1,281 adults aged 60 and over, who were interviewed in 2001 and 2003. Analyses indicated that depressive symptoms were usually reduced by assistance from daughters‐in‐law and increased sometimes when such support was from sons. These relationships held most strongly when mothers coresided with their daughters‐in‐law. This research suggests that the benefits of intergenerational support are conditional on culturally prescribed expectations.     

Computational methods for complex stochastic systems: a review of some alternatives to MCMC

We consider analysis of complex stochastic models based upon partial information. MCMC and reversible jump MCMC are often the methods of choice for such problems, but in some situations they can be difficult to implement; and suffer from problems such as poor mixing, and the difficulty of diagnosing convergence. Here we review three alternatives to MCMC methods: importance sampling, the forward-backward algorithm, and sequential Monte Carlo (SMC). We discuss how to design good proposal densities for importance sampling, show some of the range of models for which the forward-backward algorithm can be applied, and show how resampling ideas from SMC can be used to improve the efficiency of the other two methods. We demonstrate these methods on a range of examples, including estimating the transition density of a diffusion and of a discrete-state continuous-time Markov chain; inferring structure in population genetics; and segmenting genetic divergence data.     

关于城镇人口就业的发展趋势与人口控制

本文阐述了人口就业在机制、渠道、就业压力等方面的发展趋势，并提出了顺应发展需要所必须选择的人口控制的若干措施和建议     

农村老年人精神文化需求调查

目前,我国农村的老年人主要存在三大需求,即养老保障需求、医疗保障需求和精神文化需求。其中精神文化需求处于农村老年人生命需求的最高层次。在实地调查的基础上,对浙江农村老年人的精神文化需求做出较为深入细致的研究分析。从制度安排、社会支持、自身设计和现实基础等四个方面提出具体对策思考与建议。     

Who captures the marks for the Petersen estimator?

Summary.  We examine the claim that the well-known Petersen estimator which is used in population size estimation was not in fact used by the scientist after whom it is named. We show how, in the early years of the last century, the modern use of the Petersen estimator grew from that of the fishing coefficient. Contending with the somewhat conflicting claims that were made at the time, and what by modern standards is poor referencing of sources, we investigate where the credit lies for these concepts, and the principles and protocols which support them. We assess also how far attributions of credit were affected by practical considerations, and the history of the estimator by the nature of the problems being pursued. We identify scientists whose early work on marking and estimating fish populations deserves more credit than it has received.     

“I've been independent for so damn long!”: Independence, masculinity and aging in a help seeking context

This paper draws on semi-structured interviews conducted with 36 older men to examine how older men's understandings of independence relate to their help seeking behaviours and health service use. We argue that discourses of masculinity and successful aging are both represented in men's talk about independence. Recognising that these discourses are intertwined is important for understanding how older men seek help and use health services. We outline the practice and policy implications of viewing older men's help seeking behaviours in this way, and how it might be useful for promoting older men's health.     

Non-parametric estimation of population size from capture–recapture data when the capture probability depends on a covariate

Summary.  In capture–recapture experiments the capture probabilities may depend on individual covariates such as an individual's weight or age. Typically this dependence is modelled through simple parametric functions of the covariates. Here we first demonstrate that misspecification of the model can produce biased estimates and subsequently develop a non-parametric procedure to estimate the functional relationship between the probability of capture and a single covariate. This estimator is then incorporated in a Horvitz–Thompson estimator to estimate the size of the population. The resulting estimators are evaluated in a simulation study and applied to a data set on captures of the Mountain Pygmy Possum.     

洋葱内表皮细胞骨架的显示及部分性质研究

本文利用洋葱内表皮细胞作为实验材料，观察细胞骨架结构．实验结果显示植物细胞骨架呈网状结构，分布在整个细胞质中；幼嫩细胞的细胞骨架比较密集，吸附较多蛋白质，须经多次洗涤后才可获得较为清晰的图片．进一步的研究表明，与幼嫩细胞的细胞骨架相比，衰老细胞的细胞骨架出现部分解聚的现象；幼嫩细胞的细胞骨架在低温条件下亦出现解聚现象．使用洋葱内表皮观察细胞的骨架结构为我们在简便、经济的条件下，通过普通光学显微镜观察骨架提供了可能．这种方法为今后进一步开展细胞骨架的功能研究奠定了基础．     

Coming of age

Those of us who study aging have the unique opportunity to live their subject matter. Whether we learn any personal lessons is a matter of our own reflectivity, but personal experience can make us far better scholars than can scholarship alone. As one ponders the life course, it is clear that a number of institutional influences, temporal patterning, and unexpected intervening variables are involved in the unfolding of one's life. Life-long institutional memberships furnish social capital that helps establish parameters for our personal experience, for how we view our personal trajectories and for our ability to cope with the aging process itself. But how to come to terms with unexpected occurrences that alter the anticipated futures we had in mind? Do our scholarly efforts and our experience come together in ways that enrich one or the other? These are the questions I explore in this personal essay.