Vulnerabilities and risks in population and environment studies

In the study of risks , different sciences use the same category in different ways, each related to its own ontological assumptions. But many of these fields communicate very little with one another. This article seeks to approximate two of these areas of study that have shown similar concerns and that can mutually strengthen one another, namely, geography and demography. Geography was one of the first disciplines to include risk in its environmental dimension and has had broad experience in simultaneously focusing on social and natural dynamics. Demography, on the other hand, faces greater difficulties because only recently has it incorporated the environmental dimension into its scientific scope. Both have brought the concept of vulnerability into their conceptual framework as complementary to that of risk. Geographers understand vulnerability as a more symbiotic form of the relationship between society and nature, whereas demographers give it a strong socioeconomic component. In this regard, the conceptual discussion on risks and vulnerabilities, in its attempt at approximating these two fields, is a way of conceptually advancing and strengthening the different approaches to empirical work, especially in population–environment studies which is the common ground for the dialogue between the two disciplines.

Population Density is a Key Factor in Declining Human Fertility

In studying the complex determinants of human fertility, social scientists have given little attention to population density, although reproduction has been shown to be density-dependent for a wide variety of other species. Using fixed effects models on the time series of 145 countries and controlling for key social and economic variables, we find a consistent and significant negative relationship between human fertility and population density. Moreover, we find that individual fertility preferences also decline with population density. These findings suggest that population density should be included as a variable in future studies of fertility determinants.

我国人口老龄化的城乡差异及影响因素分析

人口的乡—城转移导致了老龄化城乡倒置现象,人口的单向跨区域流动也造成了我国大范围的地区年龄结构失衡,对我国的经济社会可持续发展造成威胁。基于2010—2019年大陆31个省市的面板数据,以人口老龄化系数为被解释变量,分别构建固定效应和随机效应模型,从人口、经济、社会三个方面研究我国城镇、农村人口老龄化和城乡倒置现象的影响因素以及三类因素在东、中、西部地区的不同表现。结果显示,人口因素是老龄化城乡差异的直接原因,经济因素是根本原因,教育、医疗、社会保障等社会因素在城乡、区域之间影响不一。为此,政府应当增强生育支持力度以提高生育率,推动城乡一体化发展,推动农村地区的养老服务建设,并鼓励区域的联动合作,以缓解老龄化集聚地区的人口压力。     

户籍地禀赋与流入地融合 ——流动人口定居意愿影响因素研究

定居意愿是衡量流动人口转向稳定生活状态的重要指标,实则包含了居留意愿和落户意愿两方面的内容。基于2017年全国流动人口卫生计生动态监测数据,通过建立多项Logistic回归模型的方法,重点从与制度结构相关的“户籍地禀赋”与“流入地融合”两个维度,分析流动人口“居留-落户”的定居意愿状况及其影响因素。研究结果表明,户籍地禀赋性因素的“回流”效应和流入地融合性因素的“拉动”效应对流动人口不同层面定居意愿的影响存在差异:与责任、情感、伦理相关的户籍地禀赋性因素以及与经济融入、社会与文化接纳相关的流入地融合性因素对流动人口居留意愿的影响比较显著;与财富价值相关的户籍地禀赋性因素以及与城乡区位相关的流入地融合性因素对流动人口落户意愿的影响比较显著;制度融入因素、生活融入因素、身份认同因素则对两个维度的定居意愿都产生了显著影响。因此,对于具有定居意愿的流动人口,政府应该努力实现基本公共服务的全覆盖,激发流动人口参与社会建设、增强对流入地的身份认同与文化接纳等融合水平;对于没有定居意愿的流动人口,也需为其“回流”后在户籍地的再次融入提供良好的制度保障环境。     

农村老年人老化态度变动轨迹:基于积极老龄化框架的实证考察

基于积极老龄化理论框架和“中国老年健康影响因素跟踪调查”面板数据,文章从积极和消极两个维度对农村老年人老化态度问题进行实证考察。研究发现,两种老化态度均以2008年为重要转折点,女性老化态度比男性更具多样性和多变性。健康、社会参与和保障都能引起老化态度的积极变动,但社会适应、子女经济支持和社区照料三个因素对消极老化态度有正向影响,而生产活动降低了积极老化态度水平。从贡献率看,健康因素对老化态度差异贡献最大,其次是保障因素、社会参与因素,健康因素更能解释积极老化态度的变化,社会参与因素对消极老化态度的贡献率更高,二者分别在女性和男性老年人群体中表现得更为明显。贡献率排在前四位的因素是精神健康、子女经济支持、医疗可及性和身体健康。用积极老龄化的观点帮助庞大的农村老年人口建立正确的老化态度将有益于养老问题的解决。     

中国省际人口流动与 人力资本流动差异性分析

人力资本流动与人口流动相关却不相同,本文采用2010-2016年全国流动人口动态监测数据,从流动方向和流动强度两方面对我国省际人口流动引致的人力资本流动现象加以研究。结果表明从流动方向分析,各省人口净流动方向基本呈现时间一致性并且流入流出区域具有稳定性。在调查期间人口净流出省份为16个,人口净流入省份为15个,没有明显变化。人力资本净流向与人口净流向完全一致,但省际人口净流向与高级人力资本净流向并不完全一致,山西、广西、重庆等省市的高级人力资本净流向始终与总人力资本净流向相反。本文采用流出流入比率和迁移选择中心两种指标测算人力资本流动强度,结果基本一致。人力资本流动中心与人口流动中心分布均较为固定。2010年人力资本流动强度最大的省份在2016年的流动强度也更强,流动强度在省际呈现惯性和马太效应。人力资本流入最强地区包括北京、天津、上海三个直辖市,人力资本流出最强省份始终包括安徽、四川、河南等省份。以人力资本流出弹性衡量人力资本流出强度与人口流出强度的相对强弱,东部地区、东北地区省份人力资本的流出强度始终大于人口流出强度,西部地区省份差异较大。考虑各省近五年经济增长状况,人口流动或者人力资本流动对经济增长的影响是非线性的。     

中国老年人储蓄对家庭消费的影响 ——基于CHARLS面板数据的分析

在我国快速老龄化和居民储蓄率居高不下的背景下,结合老年人储蓄偏好和消费特点,构建家庭消费计量分析模型,文章利用CHARLS2011、2013、2015年微观跟踪调查数据,采用工具变量—随机效应模型划分年龄层次和消费类别逐级估计,重点考察老年人储蓄对其家庭消费的影响。研究表明,老年人储蓄水平越高,对家庭消费的促进能力就越强;分城乡来看,农村老年人储蓄对家庭消费的贡献更大;按年龄组别来看,中、低龄老年人储蓄对家庭消费的影响显著,高龄老年人储蓄对家庭消费的影响不显著;按消费类别看,老年人储蓄偏重于家庭基本生活、教育文化、健康等刚性消费支出,城镇和农村老年人储蓄对不同消费类别影响的差异主要表现在日常支出、医疗保健和耐用消费品等方面。此外,研究还发现,老年人拥有房产对家庭消费具有非常明显的提振作用,家庭收入和老年人借贷对家庭消费的贡献显著。     

The functional patterns of adolescent mothers leaving foster care: Results from a cluster analysis

Few studies have explored the outcomes of adolescent mothers leaving foster care, especially using person‐oriented methods. The current study employed a cluster analysis to identify unique patterns of functioning among adolescent mothers aged 19 (n = 777). Data from the National Youth in Transition Database and the Adoption and Foster Care Analysis and Reporting System were utilized. Findings revealed five subpopulations characterized by distinct constellations of outcomes at age 19. The largest group (43%) exhibited competent functioning across all the domains studied—its members were connected to school and/or employment and did not experience homelessness, substance abuse referrals, or incarceration during the past 2 years (i.e., “resilient”). A relatively small group (12%) exhibited challenges across all the above‐referenced domains, whereas the remaining groups presented challenges in some domains, but not in others. Follow‐up analyses revealed that adolescent mothers classified as resilient at age 19 had the lowest rates of congregate care placements and the highest rates of nonrelative foster care placements at age 17. Moreover, they had lower placement instability and higher rates of extended foster care as compared with members of the other clusters. Implications for practice, policy, and research are discussed.     

Building home on a fault line: Aging out of child welfare with a serious mental health diagnosis

Youth aging out of foster care are at high risk for homelessness. This research explains how and why homelessness occurs among youth with serious mental health struggles after aging out of residential and transitional living programmes. Using a longitudinal constructivist grounded theory design, we analyse 20 in‐depth interviews exploring youth's transition experiences and perceptions of transition success within 4 months of emancipation and at 6 and 12 months postemancipation. Monthly 15‐min check‐ins prevented attrition. A three‐phase transition process was observed driven by participant desires and actions to cultivate psychological home through establishing physical home alone away from social networks. Pre‐emancipation, the promise of home was privacy and opportunity for self‐redefinition. Shortly after emancipation, home became a physical and social space to be, a valuable resource to share and a demonstration of personal transition success. However, later in the year postemancipation, maintaining physical home proves nearly impossible given the risk context. Findings speak to how and why youth aging out appear overly self‐reliant upon emancipation. Cultivating a psychological sense of home has practice implications for child welfare providers who aim to prepare youth to live independently postemancipation.     

Toward a gender politics of aging

The article proposes a Gender Politics of Aging approach to the study of aging societies. The approach recognizes the feminization of old age, ageism’s roots in sexist discourse, and the need to recognize the role of politics in driving demographic debates. Drawing together arguments from feminist gerontology and political demography, the article argues that the intersection of politics and gender must be considered if appropriate responses to an older, feminized demography are to be produced. I conclude that the work of aging feminists provides a rich vein of research and praxis from which a gender politics of aging approach can draw.