考古学与未来:工业文明的忧虑

在从考古学角度对玛雅、复活节岛和良渚文明崩溃回顾的基础上,文章从"报酬递减"和"最省力"原理介绍了古代文明崩溃的机制,然后对现代工业文明的发展趋势表示了忧虑.文章认为,今天的地球只不过是一个放大了的玛雅低地和复活节岛.历史教训告诉我们,环境恶化总是文明崩溃的一个前提.面对当代工业文明所面临的人口激增、环境恶化和资源枯竭的严峻形势,我们应该提倡"知足最好"而非"越多越好",避免重蹈古代文明崩溃的覆辙.     

电场作用下裂缝介质单相渗流数值模拟

1.China University of Petroleum:a.School of Physics Science and Technology,b.College of Petroleum Engineering,Dongying Shandong 257061,China；2.Luning Transmit Oil Section,Pipeline Storage & Transportation Company,SINOPEC,Zoucheng Shandong 273500,China)JOURNAL OF SOUTHWEST PETROLEUM UNIVERSITY(SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY EDITION)，VOL.31，NO.6,85-88,2009（ISSN 1674-5086，in Chinese     

ADAPTING THE MODEL: THERAPEUTIC WORK WITH CHILDREN FROM ARMY FAMILIES

This paper describes the development of a specialised therapeutic service for parents and their young children in an inner city social services family centre. The Under five's counselling service, based on the Tavistock Model, offers brief psychoanalytic interventions to parents who are worried about their young child's development e.g. crying, eating, persistent crying etc. The premise behind setting up such a service was to provide therapeutic intervention to the parent-child relationship at the earliest possible stage, preventing further ongoing difficulties. The paper draws upon observations and interventions with families I have seen in the first year the service was opened. Particular themes which emerged in the work with these families will be highlighted. In particular a link is made between early childhood difficulties and unresolved loss in the mother's lives. Furthermore, the impact of the service upon the rest of the social services family support services is commented upon.     

Assessing participants’ perceptions on group-based principles for action in community-based health enhancing physical activity programmes: The APEF tool

In community-based health enhancing physical activity (CBHEPA) programmes, group-based principles for action such as active participation, enjoyment, and fostering group processes are widely advocated. However, not much is known about participants’ perceptions of these principles as there are no assessment tools available. Therefore, this article describes the development of the APEF (Active Participation, Enjoyment, and Fostering group processes) tool and reports on its implementation in a Dutch CBHEPA programme. Indicators for the principles have been identified from literature research, interviews with professionals, and secondary analysis of three group interviews with 11 practitioners. To address the identified indicators, the APEF tool was developed, pretested, and used in 10 focus groups with 76 participants.The APEF tool consists of eight statements about group-based principles for action, on which CBHEPA participants vote, followed by in-depth discussion. The voting procedure engages participants. Spider diagrams visualise participants’ perceptions of group-based principles.The APEF tool addresses the challenge of relating group level outcomes to individual outcomes such as physical activity behaviour. The tool facilitates as well as evaluates group-based principles for action, it stimulates dialogue and is culturally sensitive, but it needs strong facilitating skills to manage group dynamics.     

C2C卖家的诚信行为模式及其动态性研究

现有电子商务的信用评价体系单一维度的特点使得评级体系难以准确衡量、比较店铺在各维度之间的差异及其变化。为了提高C2C电子商务信用评级体系的信息揭示作用,本文试图从多维度指标分析店铺的诚信行为模式及其动态性。本文对淘宝7大行业不同信用等级的卖家的诚信指标数据进行聚类分析表明,店铺在动态评分、信用等级、好评率上分别具有六类不同的静态组合特征,信用积分在解释店铺诚信状态上弱于动态评分和好评率指标。动态模式分析表明,店铺的好评率、动态评分指标及其与同业行业比值会呈现出三个不同的组合变化趋势。最后本文提出对现有的评价体系改进,以体现店铺之间在模式上的差异,从而真实展现卖家的诚信水平。     

气体钻与泥浆钻全井段钻柱动力学对比研究

全井段钻柱在井内运动过程是一个非常复杂的非线性动力学问题，不可能得到比较完美的解析解，如果采用室内试验或者现场试验研究，其成本又会很高且很难实现。因此，在弹塑性力学、岩石力学和钻柱力学的基础上，以四川某井基本钻井参数和钻具组合为依据，采用有限元法建立了塔式钻具钻至1486m井深时的全井段三维钻柱模型和相应的井筒模型，并且建立了钻头与岩石以及钻柱与井筒之间的随时间变化且有摩擦系数的接触关系和相对应的泥浆钻井模型，对比分析了钻柱在动态钻进过程中的井口参数、钻头上压力和转动速度以及全井段钻柱的弯矩扭矩变化等结果，得出气体钻井与泥浆钻井全井段钻柱的运动规律以及钻铤失效机理的差异。为认识气体钻井全井段钻柱的运动规律提供了新的研究方法，对气体钻井中钻柱力学、井斜控制和设备等方面的研究都有较好的现实意义。     

提高深圳出生人口素质的理论与思考

本文通过全面回顾深圳市在提高出生人口素质，预防出生缺陷方面的机构设置、工作方法，分析了深圳提高出生人口素质面临的挑战．并从政策分析的角度提出了提高出生人口素质的政策建议。     

台湾出生性别比的状况分析和对策研究

通过梳理有关台湾的人口资料,首先发现台湾出生性别比的发展呈现出总体偏高的趋势,其产生的原因是多种因素共同作用的结果。其次对台湾治理出生性别比偏高的直接和间接措施进行分析,直接措施是加大对非法性别鉴定的处罚,间接措施是消除不利文化的影响,营造促进妇女发展的社会环境。这些措施最终达到了＂标本兼治＂的目的。最后借鉴台湾治理出生性别比问题的经验和教训,为治理中国出生性别比偏高的问题提供相关对策。     

Urban “slums” and social mobility

Informal urban settlements determine the wellbeing of a large section of global humanity. Yet there has been little research on their role in facilitating social mobility. In theory such settlements may foster human progress by linking rural–urban migrants to the services, contacts and livelihoods concentrated in cities. The article uses longitudinal data for South Africa to explore the magnitude of social progression among people living within informal settlements compared with rural areas and formal urban areas. It finds that there may be some advantage from living in an informal settlement compared with a rural area, but the effect is not strong. The impact may be larger in the more prosperous Gauteng city‐region than in other urban regions.     

RESEARCH NOTE Some evidence against the assumption that approval of family planning is associated with frequency of spouses' discussion of the subject

Much previous work on the relationship between respondent's reported frequency of discussion with spouse about family planning and correctness of reporting spouse's approval of family planning has led to the conclusion that discussion promotes approval. In this paper, data from the 1998 Kenya Demographic and Health Surveys are used to show that a focus on the relationship between frequency of discussion and correctness of reporting partner's disapproval of family planning leads to sceptical conclusions about the effects of discussion in improving knowledge of partner's attitude or in promoting approval.