所有制、行业效率与转型经济下的中国企业生存

 在转型经济条件下我国企业生存具有独特的特点。本文对湖南省1998-2007年新成立的54159家国有和私营工业企业数据样本进行了研究。结果表明,即使在行业层面,效率仍对企业生存产生了显著的正向影响,我国私营企业生存状况受效率影响作用较大,国有企业受效率影响较小,随着经济转型的深入,效率在改善中国企业生存方面的作用越来越大,而目前我国国有企业的生存还并未受经济转型时期的影响。     

Community and social capital in Slovenia—the impact of transition

The transition from socialism to capitalism has many impacts on the everyday life of the people of Slovenia. Amongst others it has an impact on their community ties and their choices regarding participation in public life. Community can enable or diminish the basic processes, such as solidarity, equal choices and opportunities, and respect for the differences that are needed for an inclusive society. This article researches such processes through the concept of social capital and provides some responses necessary for the political and professional planning of social policy and the practice of social services.     

体制转轨时期证券市场低效率的经济学分析

就我国目前而言,由于处于新旧体制转轨时期,旧体制下的重工业优先发展战略所造成的亏损大中型国有企业难以退出市场的现状影响了政府决策者的经济行为,从而影响了证券市场的运行效率。笔者结合我国的经济现状,以证券市场有效运行为基本模式,分析我国证券市场低效率运行的原因,并提出一些较为现实的政策建议。     

中国农民工问题的思路选择

农民工是合乎中国国情、极富有中国特色的当代中国社会转型期出现的新概念，它代表着当今中国改革开放中涌现的一个庞大的新兴社会群体。农民工的存在与发展，影响党的事业和国家的稳定、现代化进程和社会经济发展。马克思主义的动力思维、辩证思维、规律思维，应成为我们研究农民工问题的逻辑起点、思维方式和思维趋向。     

A Bayesian Model for Markov Chains via Jeffrey's Prior

Abstract

This work deals with the problem of Bayesian estimation of the transition probabilities associated with multistate Markov chain. The model is based on the Jeffreys' noninformative prior. The Bayesian estimator is approximated by means of MCMC techniques. A numerical study by simulation is done in order to compare the Bayesian estimator with the maximum likelihood estimator.     

STAR非线性平稳性检验中误设定的伪检验研究

本文通过理论分析和蒙特卡洛仿真模拟,研究平稳性检验中选用的统计量与数据生成过程不一致时,非线性ESTAR、LSTAR与线性DF检验法能否得出正确的结论.研究表明,二阶LSTAR与ESTAR模型可用相同的检验方法,但前者的非线性特征更强.当数据生成过程为线性AR,或非线性ESTAR、二阶LSTAR模型时,使用DF或ESTAR检验法可得出大致正确的结论,但LSTAR检验法完全失败.数据生成过程的非线性特征越强,ESTAR较DF检验方法的功效增益越高;线性特征越强,DF的功效增益越高.当转移函数F(θ,c,zt)中θ较大导致一阶泰勒近似误差较大或c非0时,标准ESTAR与LSTAR非线性检验法失去应用条件.θ较大或c偏离0较远时,数据生成过程中线性成分增强,用线性DF检验可获得更好的检验结果.     

Infinite Variation Tempered Stable Ornstein–Uhlenbeck Processes with Discrete Observations

We investigate transition law between consecutive observations of Ornstein–Uhlenbeck processes of infinite variation with tempered stable stationary distribution. Thanks to the Markov autoregressive structure, the transition law can be written in the exact sense as a convolution of three random components; a compound Poisson distribution and two independent tempered stable distributions, one with stability index in (0, 1) and the other with index in (1, 2). We discuss simulation techniques for those three random elements. With the exact transition law and proposed simulation techniques, sample paths simulation proves significantly more efficient, relative to the known approximative technique based on infinite shot noise series representation of tempered stable Lévy processes.     

High-order extensions of the Double Chain Markov Model

The Double Chain Markov Model is a fully Markovian model for the representation of time-series in random environments. In this article, we show that it can handle transitions of high-order between both a set of observations and a set of hidden states. In order to reduce the number of parameters, each transition matrix can be replaced by a Mixture Transition Distribution model. We provide a complete derivation of the algorithms needed to compute the model. Three applications, the analysis of a sequence of DNA, the song of the wood pewee, and the behavior of young monkeys show that this model is of great interest for the representation of data that can be decomposed into a finite set of patterns.     

国家制度能力与经济结构调整——基于转型期的中俄比较研究

经济转型不仅使中俄两国的经济体制发生了重大转变,而且使两国的经济结构发生了深刻调整。俄罗斯不仅形成了混乱的市场体制和分裂的社会结构,而且形成了一种去工业化、去现代化的资源依赖型经济结构。中国在转型进程中形成的是一种政府主导的可控的市场经济社会,并处于工业化的迅速爬升阶段。导致中俄两国经济结构差异的一个关键因素就是国家制度能力。一个能力充分的国家能够根据内外环境的变化对经济结构进行适应性调整,实现社会经济持续、快速、平衡发展的目标;反之,则可能导致经济结构退化,经济发展停滞,乃至国家竞争优势的丧失。后危机时代,中俄两国依然面临着深化经济转型和推进发展模式转变的重任,如何塑造适宜的国家制度能力,是推动经济结构进一步调整优化的重要动力。     

Foreign-born health integration during the transition to adulthood: The case of weight

Nativity differences in youths’ health in the United States are striking—the children of foreign-born parents often have healthier outcomes than those of native-born parents. However, very little is known about how immigrant-native differences evolve within the same individuals over time, or about life cycle aspects of the health-related integration of youth with migration backgrounds. Using data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health, I examine nativity differences in trajectories of weight gain during adolescence and early adulthood, as well as the degree to which temporal patterns are stratified by race/ethnicity and socioeconomic status. I examine whether nativity differences converge, diverge or remain stable over time, and whether patterns are socially stratified within and across nativity groups. I find that first-generation adolescents begin at a lower weight than their third generation peers and gain weight at a significantly slower pace, resulting in meaningful differences by early adulthood. More complex examination of the relationship between nativity and weight gain reveals additional differences by ethnicity: the foreign-born advantage over time does not extend as strongly to Hispanic adolescents. The findings demonstrate how the health-related integration of foreign-born youth is tied to race/ethnicity and socioeconomic circumstances, and suggest the need to examine the ways in which social circumstances and health change together.