Demographic Influences on Risk Perceptions

Over the past 15 years, psychologists have empirically investigated how people perceive technological, consumer, and natural hazards. The psychometric-attitudes to risk being summarized by three factors: "dread," whether the risk is known, and personal exposure to the risk. The results have been used to suggest that certain types of hazards are viewed very differently from other hazards. The purpose of this paper is somewhat different, in that it investigates whether individual demographic characteristics influence psychometric perceptions of risk. This paper makes use of a large, professionally conducted, survey of a wide cross-section of the residents of metropolitan Chicago. One thousand adults were interviewed in a random-digit dial telephone survey, producing a useable dataset of about 800. Data on the three risk factors mentioned above were obtained on 7-point scales for four common hazards: aviation accidents, fires in the home, automobile accidents, and stomach cancer. The survey also collected demographic data on respondents'age, schooling, income, sex, and race. Regressions were then conducted to relate the demographic characteristics to risk perceptions. Some strong general conclusions can be drawn. The results suggest that women, people with lower levels of schooling and income, younger people, and blacks have more dread of hazards. The exception being age-related illnesses which, not unnaturally, are feared by older people. Unlike previous literature, we cannot substantiate the argument that these groups of people are less informed about hazards and thus less accepting of them. The most likely leading explanation of the relationship between demographic factors and dread of a hazard is the perceived personal exposure to the hazard. People with greater perceived exposure to a hazard are more fearful.     

Mlonte Carlo Techniques for Quantitative Uncertainty Analysis in Public Health Risk Assessments

Most public health risk assessments assume and combine a series of average, conservative, and worst-case values to derive a conservative point estimate of risk. This procedure has major limitations. This paper demonstrates a new methodology for extended uncertainty analyses in public health risk assessments using Monte Carlo techniques. The extended method begins as do some conventional methods--with the preparation of a spreadsheet to estimate exposure and risk. This method, however, continues by modeling key inputs as random variables described by probability density functions (PDFs). Overall, the technique provides a quantitative way to estimate the probability distributions for exposure and health risks within the validity of the model used. As an example, this paper presents a simplified case study for children playing in soils contaminated with benzene and benzo(a)pyrene (BaP).     

影响川南浅丘区田坎玉米产量的气候条件分析

利用积分回归方法分析气候因子对川南浅丘区田坎玉米产量的影响。结果表明 ,日照、温度及降雨日数是影响田坎玉米产量的主要因子。苗期的高温 ,生育中期光照不足及灌浆成熟期的雨日偏多均不利于提高田坎玉米产量     

BOOST－PFC电路反馈环节的优化设计

介绍了平均电流控制ＢＯＯＳＴ─ＰＦＣ电路的原理，建立了电流环和电压环的小信号简化模型，讨论了双环反馈环节的设计原则和方法，提出最优设计的思想和数学模型，并以一种ＢＯＯＳＴ─ＰＦＣ电路为例进行优化设计，计算模拟结果显示优化后有关指标好于优化前。     

Six Propositions on Public Participation and Their Relevance for Risk Communication

New societal obligations for communicating risk information are emerging in a variety of contexts. This article draws upon the lengthy societal experience with citizen participation programs to identify how risk communication efforts may be effectively structured and implemented. Six major propositions address such themes as means/ends differences in expectations, the timing of the program, the role of credibility and trust, the need for technical and analytical resources, differing thresholds of public involvement, and limitations upon current understandings. Key conclusions for the design of risk communication programs are set forth.     

中国农村发展水平因子分析

"三农"问题已成为制约中国经济社会发展的瓶颈性因素,而要有效地解决"三农"问题,首先要对中国不同地区农村发展水平做出相对客观的评价。选取一系列的评价指标,运用多元统计分析中的因子分析方法,30个省区的农村发展水平作整体综合分析,得出各地区农村发展水平的概况,并在此基础上指出了各地区解决农村发展问题的重点。     

Prospect Theory and Limit Lines

Risk acceptance criteria in the form of limit lines are investigated in the context of prospect theory. This theory departs from utility theory in several respects, an important one being the use of weights other than probabilities in the evaluation of the expected impact of uncertain outcomes. Hypothetical functions reflecting certain attitudes toward consequences and rare events are developed and combined to produce several limit lines.     

论"二拍"中的商贾题材小说

"二拍"中的商贾小说表现了资本主义萌芽给人们生活和思想观念带来的冲击和影响,表现了许多突破传统的新观念;表现了商品交换的繁荣给社会生活带来的新变化;表现了商品交换催发的人性中的恶给社会带来的负面影响;形象地总结了商人们在长期的经营过程中积累的经商艺术.