Modeling Endogenous Mobility in Earnings Determination

ABSTRACT

We evaluate the bias from endogenous job mobility in fixed-effects estimates of worker- and firm-specific earnings heterogeneity using longitudinally linked employer–employee data from the LEHD infrastructure file system of the U.S. Census Bureau. First, we propose two new residual diagnostic tests of the assumption that mobility is exogenous to unmodeled determinants of earnings. Both tests reject exogenous mobility. We relax exogenous mobility by modeling the matched data as an evolving bipartite graph using a Bayesian latent-type framework. Our results suggest that allowing endogenous mobility increases the variation in earnings explained by individual heterogeneity and reduces the proportion due to employer and match effects. To assess external validity, we match our estimates of the wage components to out-of-sample estimates of revenue per worker. The mobility-bias-corrected estimates attribute much more of the variation in revenue per worker to variation in match quality and worker quality than the uncorrected estimates. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.     

E-optimal designs for three treatments

E-optimality is studied for three treatments in an arbitrary n-way heterogeneity setting. In some cases maximal trace designs cannot be E-optimal. When there is more than one E-optimal design for a given setting, the best with respect to all reasonable criteria is determined.     

Methods for exploring treatment effect heterogeneity in subgroup analysis: an application to global clinical trials

Multi‐country randomised clinical trials (MRCTs) are common in the medical literature, and their interpretation has been the subject of extensive recent discussion. In many MRCTs, an evaluation of treatment effect homogeneity across countries or regions is conducted. Subgroup analysis principles require a significant test of interaction in order to claim heterogeneity of treatment effect across subgroups, such as countries in an MRCT. As clinical trials are typically underpowered for tests of interaction, overly optimistic expectations of treatment effect homogeneity can lead researchers, regulators and other stakeholders to over‐interpret apparent differences between subgroups even when heterogeneity tests are insignificant. In this paper, we consider some exploratory analysis tools to address this issue. We present three measures derived using the theory of order statistics, which can be used to understand the magnitude and the nature of the variation in treatment effects that can arise merely as an artefact of chance. These measures are not intended to replace a formal test of interaction but instead provide non‐inferential visual aids, which allow comparison of the observed and expected differences between regions or other subgroups and are a useful supplement to a formal test of interaction. We discuss how our methodology differs from recently published methods addressing the same issue. A case study of our approach is presented using data from the Study of Platelet Inhibition and Patient Outcomes (PLATO), which was a large cardiovascular MRCT that has been the subject of controversy in the literature. An R package is available that implements the proposed methods. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

"异质"≠"神秘"——评索绪尔的语言"同质"观

言语是"活"的语言,它是语言的导向,也是思维的导向。时空的变异、社会的异质及主体的人文性决定了言语的异质性,但"异质"≠"神秘"。言语符号的不断重复与组合呈现一定的规律与制度,是探索语言本质、语言变化机制和预测语言规律等的很好契机。语言与言语没有自然界限,水乳交融,因而语言也不可能是"同质"的。     

科学知识与哲学知识中的时空问题

科学知识中的时间和空间是客观的物质的,具有不以人的意志为转移的客观性。其时间具有过去——现在——未来的发展的一维性,而其空间具有三维性或与时间相结合的四维性。而哲学知识中的时间和空间具有主、客观统一的异质性、可逆性。其时间具有以现在为基础和中心的向心性,以及以未来为中心的预设目标的超越性;其空间具有以人自身和人的创造物为中心和尺度的向心性。造成这种状况的原因是:科学活动中以尽量排除人的心理和人的活动的因素的干扰而保持科学成果的纯粹客观性,而哲学活动作为一种对整体性的追求和对前提条件的不断追问,把人的活动,特别是产生创造物的物质和精神活动及其结果看作是主客观统一的过程和结果,正是人的精神的以人为中心的向心性和可逆性、无限的个体性赋予了哲学(还有艺术、宗教等反思性知识)知识具有主、客观统一的异质性、可逆性、向心性等。由于人的生活、特别是物质生产活动具有人的意识的对象化、客观化和客观事物及其规律对人的内化和理性化统一的特点,所以,社会历史的实践活动中,科学知识的时间和空间以及哲学知识的时间和空间互为前提和基础,相互促进和转化。     

试析主流宏观经济分析中的代表性主体范式

代表性主体范式是现代主流宏观经济理论中广泛采用的分析方法之一,在该范式中,对宏观经济的研究不是依据总体的表现,而是基于对个体和个体的行为表现如何转换到总体水平进行考察。由于现实经济活动主体的异质性特征与代表性主体假设的不相容性,该范式的运用正受到越来越多的质疑和挑战。     

齐文化与秦文化之比较

齐、秦两国文化属于两种类型不同的异质文化,齐偏功利,秦重战功;齐人治,秦法治;在经济、文化、风俗等理念上也存在着巨大的差异。同时二者也存在着文化的同质性,从整体而言,二者均属于顽强进取的文化类型;从质的方面看,两国文化都注重务实。纵观东周,最早称霸的齐却被后起的秦国所吞灭,文化因素在历史发展过程中起了至关重要作用。任何一种区域文化都有其自身特定的规定性和一定环境、时代的适应性,而无优劣之分。     

Efficacy of programmes for the unemployed: discrete time modelling of duration data from a matched-comparison study

An evaluation is described of two UK Government programmes for the long-term unemployed in Great Britain, Employment Training and Employment Action, using discrete time hazard modelling of event histories. The study design employed a closely matched comparison group and carefully chosen control variables to minimize the effect of selection bias on conclusions. The effect of unobserved heterogeneity is investigated by using some standard random effect model formulations.     

低渗透储层可动剩余油核磁共振分析

针对有代表性密闭取芯岩芯平行样，分别进行油水饱和度和油水高速离心驱替实验核磁共振分析，定量获得 储层目前剩余油饱和度、采出油相对量、可动油饱和度及驱油效率上限等参数，对比各参数建立储层可动剩余油饱和 度核磁共振分析方法。研究表明，建立岩芯饱和油束缚水状态和水驱油的最佳离心力分别为2.250 MPa 和0.220 MPa， 4 个渗透率级别（>50、[10，50）、[1，10）和<1 mD）储层采出油饱和度分别为23.49%、16.81%、8.70% 和9.99%，可动油 饱和度分别为50.34%、43.76%、29.67% 和22.89%，可动剩余油饱和度分别为26.85%、26.95%、20.97% 和12.90%，由 于储层非均质性影响，大于10 mD 储层采出油明显高于10 mD 以下储层，但大于10 mD 储层可动油饱和度较高，故可 动剩余油饱和度也较高，小于1 mD 的储层可动剩余油明显低于其他储层。     

Timeliness in the Adoptive Placement of Photolisted Children

ABSTRACT

This study uses information from the New York State (NYS) Adoption Photolisting Service, the Blue Books, to determine the characteristics of the hardest-to-place children, factors related to timeliness in the adoptive placement of listed children, and the efficacy of photolisting updates in impacting placement probabilities. The data for this study consist of computerized records on all children photolisted in NYS from 1976 to 1997. Results indicate that children experiencing significant delays in placement are more likely to be male, black, older at first listing, have mild or severe psychological problems or multiple problems requiring total care and to have strong emotional ties to nonadopting adults in their lives. Members of sibling groups listed in the Blue Books are placed more quickly. Even after controlling for time dependency and unobserved heterogeneity, results indicate that updating a photolisting has no significant impact on increasing a child's probability of placement. Implications of study findings for administrative practice are discussed.