Bayesian bridge-randomized penalized quantile regression estimation for linear regression model with AP(q) perturbation

Bridge penalized regression has many desirable statistical properties such as unbiasedness, sparseness as well as ‘oracle’. In Bayesian framework, bridge regularized penalty can be implemented based on generalized Gaussian distribution (GGD) prior. In this paper, we incorporate Bayesian bridge-randomized penalty and its adaptive version into the quantile regression (QR) models with autoregressive perturbations to conduct Bayesian penalization estimation. Employing the working likelihood of the asymmetric Laplace distribution (ALD) perturbations, the Bayesian joint hierarchical models are established. Based on the mixture representations of the ALD and generalized Gaussian distribution (GGD) priors of coefficients, the hybrid algorithms based on Gibbs sampler and Metropolis-Hasting sampler are provided to conduct fully Bayesian posterior estimation. Finally, the proposed Bayesian procedures are illustrated by some simulation examples and applied to a real data application of the electricity consumption.     

“健康中国”背景下全民健身与全民健康融合研究

结合我国实际，从全民健身和全民健康的科学理念、科学研究、人才培养、体医融合、设施建设、产业发展、“互联网+”运用等措施，实现全民健身和全民健康的深度融合，保障政府工作落地生根，促进全民健康。     

以意识形态安全为核心加强高校国防教育

随着习近平总书记提出总体国家安全观，关于国家安全的研究不断丰富和扩大。文化安全作为国家安全的重要保障，意识形态领域的安全又是文化安全的根本要求，高校学生的思维易受外界影响，需要重点教育引导。高校国防教育活动作为意识形态安全教育的主要形式，对于加强国家文化安全有着重要作用。为了切实加强社会主义意识形态安全教育，为国家发展做好文化安全保障，高校国防教育应该从国家安全的高度指导教学，改革教育的内容和方式。     

邓小平社会主义核心价值观教育思想探析

以泰州某大跨度连续梁桥的静动载试验为例，建立ANSYS和桥梁博士模型进行静动力有限元数值计算。将试验结果与模型计算值进行比较，试验结果表明,该桥结构刚度和承载能力满足设计要求。     

与国际行政法的产生有关的几个基本问题——基于全球化、全球治理的视角

全球治理的提出源于全球化的推动,而全球治理的提出及实践则使国际行政法的产生、形成成为可能。具体而言,全球公民社会的兴起与国际非政府组织的发展是国际行政法产生的两个现实驱动因素。国际行政法的产生路径可总结为"自下而上"和"自上而下"的路径。国际行政法具有区别于国内行政法的若干明显特征,国际层面相比国内层面的很多特殊性也使得国际行政法的体系化发展面临诸多挑战。这些问题虽然不能忽视,但它们也并非不可克服。虽然国际行政法不如国内行政法成熟,但是如能改进合法性,便能够将超国家机构的全球治理职能发挥得更好。全球治理语境下国际行政法体系的产生、形成是一种历史的必然趋势。     

Communicating Actionable Risk for Terrorism and Other Hazards⋆

We propose a shift in emphasis when communicating to people when the objective is to motivate household disaster preparedness actions. This shift is to emphasize the communication of preparedness actions (what to do about risk) rather than risk itself. We have called this perspective “communicating actionable risk,” and it is grounded in diffusion of innovations and communication theories. A representative sample of households in the nation was analyzed using a path analytic framework. Preparedness information variables (including content, density, and observation), preparedness mediating variables (knowledge, perceived effectiveness, and milling), and preparedness actions taken were modeled. Clear results emerged that provide a strong basis for communicating actionable risk, and for the conclusion both that information observed (seeing preparedness actions that other have taken) and information received (receiving recommendations about what preparedness actions to take) play key, although different, roles in motivating preparedness actions among the people in our nation.     

NONPARAMETRIC TWO SAMPLE TESTS BASED ON AREA STATISTICS

ABSTRACT

Area statistics are sample versions of areas occurring in a probability plot of two distribution functions F and G. This paper presents a unified basis for five statistics of this type. They can be used for various testing problems in the framework of the two sample problem for independent observations, such as testing equality of distributions against inequality or testing stochastic dominance of distributions in one or either direction against nondominance. Though three of the statistics considered have already been suggested in literature, two of them are new and deserve our interest. The finite sample distributions of the statistics (under F=G) can be calculated via recursion formulae. Two tables with critical values of the new statistics are included. The asymptotic distribution of the properly normalized versions of the area statistics are functionals of the Brownian bridge. The distribution functions and quantiles thereof are obtained by Monte Carlo simulation. Finally, the power functions of the two new tests based on area statistics are compared to the power functions of the tests based on the corresponding supremum statistics, i.e., statistics of the Kolmogorov–Smirnov type.     

辽宁资源枯竭型城市的持续发展路径。

走出资源枯竭型城市发展的现实困惑是辽宁经济社会全面发展的关键。从经济角度分析辽宁资源枯竭型城市困境之因，指出经济、社会和环境可持续发展路径是辽宁资源枯竭型城市脱困并发展的必然选择，且具有示范意义。     

由表及里:地方服务型政府建构向度研究

服务型政府效能化与人本化建构是公共管理发展的基本向度,也是我国政府体制改革的目标.多年来,我国地方政府体制改革林林总总,风生水起.但是,由于受转型背景的复杂性、体制体系的惯性以及传统社会结构的粘性等因素制约,总体仍处于表象层面.为此,需要相应支点结构性的循序移位,由表及里,实现地方政府体制改革的路径创新,从而把技术性、手段性改革转变为真正为人民服务的体制性改革.     

增强青海经济活力问题研究

本文首先运用数量分析法对西北五省区经济活力进行排位,其结果是:青海经济活力综合指数低于陕西和新疆,高于宁夏和甘肃,位居西北五省区第三。在此基础上,梳理和分析了制约青海经济活力的主要因素,最后提出了进一步增强青海经济活力的主要措施与路径。