非沪籍大学生学习适应问题分析与对策

针对上海某高校的非沪籍大学生学习适应问题进行研究,通过调查,分析了问题的原因,并提出了建议和对策。     

Frame Correction Modelling with Applications to the German Register‐Assisted Census 2011

Frame corrections have been studied in census applications for a long time. One very promising method is dual system estimation, which is based on capture–recapture models. These methods have been applied recently in the USA, England, Israel and Switzerland. In order to gain information on subgroups of the population, structure preserving estimators can be applied [i.e. structure preserving estimation (SPREE) and generalized SPREE]. The present paper extends the SPREE approach with an alternative distance function, the chi‐square. The new method has shown improved estimates in our application with very small domains. A comparative study based on a large‐scale Monte Carlo simulation elaborates on advantages and disadvantages of the estimators in the context of the German register‐assisted Census 2011.     

Markov chain Monte Carlo exact inference for social networks

The uniformly most powerful unbiased test of reciprocity compares the observed number of mutual relations to its exact conditional distribution. Metropolis–Hastings algorithms have been proposed for generating from this distribution in order to perform Monte Carlo exact inference. Triad census statistics are often used to test for the presence of network group structure. We show how one of the proposed Metropolis–Hastings algorithms can be modified to generate from the conditional distribution of the triad census given the in-degrees, the out-degrees and the number of mutual dyads. We compare the results of this algorithm with those obtained by using various approximations.     

An alternative view of the 2001 census and future census taking

Summary.  The 2001 census in the UK asked for a return of people 'usually living at this address'. But this phrase is fuzzy and may have led to undercount. In addition, analysis of the sex ratios in the 2001 census of England and Wales points to a sex bias in the adjustments for net undercount—too few males in relation to females. The Office for National Statistics's abandonment of the method of demographic analysis for the population of working ages has allowed these biases to creep in. The paper presents a demographic account to check on the plausibility of census results. The need to revise preliminary estimates of the national population over a period of years following census day—as experienced in North America and now in the UK—calls into question the feasibility of a one-number census. Looking to the future, the environment for taking a reliable census by conventional methods is deteriorating. The UK Government's proposals for a population register open up the possibility of a Nordic-style administrative record census in the longer term.     

宣统年间江苏反户口调查事件探因

清末宣统年间的户口调查引发了频繁的反抗风潮,江苏成为反户口调查事件发生频率最高、范围最广的地区。这主要是苛政积重难返、官绅行径丑劣、调查布署混乱、新政宣传缺失、乡民心智未开、迷信心理作祟、朝廷威信丧失、谣言大行其道等因素合力驱动下的结果。     

中国与美国人口普查工作的差异比较

2010年我国开展了建国以来的第六次全国性人口普查,与此同时全世界大约60多个国家也同时开展了人口普查工作。通过参加我国第六次人口普查工作的亲身经历,将中国与美国关于人口普查工作的程序与差异进行比较,旨在与同行进行学习商榷,达到共同提高的目的。     

Drug use,prostitution and the prevalence of AIDS: An analysis using census tracts

This paper reports on preliminary efforts to study at the census tract level the reciprocal relationships between AIDS and street crime, particularly prostitution and drug offenses and the prevalence of AIDS. The Los Angeles County Department of Public Health provided the number of reported AIDS cases by census tract. The data on reported crimes and arrests, organized by reporting districts, came primarily from the Los Angeles County Sheriff's Department and the Los Angeles City Police Department. Although this strategy needs replication and extension, the present findings suggest that sexual orientation, drug use and prostitution are useful risk variables at the census track level.     

我国副省级城市人口压力评价与比较研究——基于2010年第六次人口普查的数据分析

人口增长率的下降和人口老龄化等多种人口因素变化将给城市经济发展带来一定的人口压力。2010年第六次人口普查数据表明,我国城市经济发展的人口压力普遍加大。通过定性与定量相结合对15个副省级城市的人口压力进行评价与对比,找出各城市形成人口压力的主要原因,以供参考。     

Micro and Macro Determinants of Refugee Economic Status

ABSTRACT

A the ory-based model of factors in fluencing refugee economic status was tested using nationally representative samples of Soviet/East Eu ro pean (n = 4241), South east Asian (n = 4748), and Cu ban (n= 4707) work ing-age ref u gees re set tied in the United States. Cen sus data on in dividu als and house holds were combined with data onmetro poli tan ar eas to as sess the relative effects of demographiccharacteristics, residency characteristics, acculturation characteristics, and community characteristics upon ref u gees' em ploy ment sta tus, pub lie as sis tance utr lization, and house hold in come. The data were analyzed us ing regression analysiswithhierarchicalentryof blocks. Across the three groups, the model ex plained 26-31% of the vari ance in em ploy ment sta tus, 32-39% of the vari ance in pub lie as sis tance uti li za tion, and 28-35% of the varr ance in house hold in come. De mo graphic char ac ter is tics had the larg est ef feet oneconomicsta tus. Residency character istics, accultur ationchar ac ter is tics, and com mu nity char ac ter is tics all had small and rel a tively equal effects. The most important in dividual determinants of economic sta tus were education, gen der, disability, and house hold composition. Implications for refugee re set tie ment theory, policy, and practice are discussed.     

THE POTENTIAL OF INTEGRATED POPULATION MODELLING†

Recent work has shown how the Kalman filter can be used to provide a simple framework for the integrated analysis of wild animal census and mark‐recapture‐recovery data. The approach has been applied to data on a range of bird species, on Soay sheep and on grey seals. This paper reviews the basic ideas, and then indicates the potential of the method through a series of new applications to data on the northern lapwing, a species of conservation interest that has been in decline in Britain for the past 20 years. The paper analyses a national index, as well as data from individual sites; it looks for a change‐point in productivity, corresponding to the start of the decline in numbers, considers how to select appropriate covariates, and compares productivity between different habitats. The new procedures can be applied singly or in combination.