Keeping Surveys Valid,Reliable, and Useful: A Tutorial

This tutorial focuses on how to produce reliable and generalizable data from random‐digit‐dialing (RDD) landline and cell phone surveys. The article notes that RDD response rates have declined and explores the impact of this pronounced decline. The tutorial addresses order, response mode, and many other biases, sample size, cooperation and response rates, weighting, and hybrid designs‐all using examples from risk analysis to illustrate the key points. The article ends with a brief review of the advantages and disadvantages of major Internet and paper surveys tools, and how these can be molded and sometimes combined in repeated, longitudinal, and other designs to answer questions about risk preferences and perceptions.     

基于人口红利视角的大学生就业问题研究

人口红利对我国经济增长起到了重要作用。本文从人口红利的视角对就业难与用工荒并存的现象进行了分析,从劳动力市场、产业结构、专业设置、就业理念等不同层面揭示出产生就业难与用工荒的影响因素,提出社会层面要打破劳动力市场分割、国家层面进行产业结构调整、学校层面进行专业调整、学生方面则要进行观念调整等多种措施。这些措施不仅可有效解决就业难与用工荒的问题,而且还可因制度变革获得内涵式人口红利,实现社会经济的增长。     

An alternative estimator for multiple characteristics in PPS sampling

The problem considered relates to large-scale sample surveys. A new estimator of population total for the characteristics that are poorly correlated with the selection probabilities has been developed for the PPSWR sampling scheme. The relative efficiency of the proposed estimator has been studied under a super-population model. A numerical investigation into the performance of the estimator has also been made.     

Gambling participation in Australia: findings from the national Household Expenditure Survey

Regression modeling is used to predict gambling patterns in Australia on the basis of the unit record files underlying the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ Household Expenditure Survey of 6,892 households. The four largest categories of gambling expenditure are examined, namely: lottery tickets, lotto-type games and instant lottery (scratch cards), TAB (pari-mutuel wagering) and related on course betting, and poker (slot) machines and ticket machines. Determining factors analyzed include the source and level of household income, family composition and structure, welfare status, gender, age, ethnicity and geographic location. Apart from the determinants of expenditure varying widely across the different types of gambling activity, the results generally indicate that the source of household income is more important than the level of income and that household composition and regional location are likewise significant in determining gambling expenditure.      

Recent European fertility patterns: Fitting curves to ‘distorted’ distributions

Recent patterns of fertility in Europe show marked differences between countries. Recent United Kingdom and Irish fertility curves show ‘distortions’ in terms of a ‘bulge’ in early age fertility, distinct from the smoother curves of other European countries. These patterns may not be adequately described by mathematical functions used by previous studies to model fertility curves. A mixture model with two component distributions may be more appropriate. The suitability of the simple and mixture Hadwiger functions is examined in relation to the fertility curves of a number of European countries. While the simple Hadwiger model fits recent period age-specific fertility distributions for some countries, others which display a ‘bulge’ in early age fertility require a mixture Hadwiger model. Some of the parameters of the Hadwiger models appear to be related to familiar demographic indices. The simple and mixture Hadwiger models appear useful in describing and comparing fertility patterns across European countries.     

A stochastic version of the malthusian trap model: Consequences for the empirical relationship between economic growth and population growth in LDC's

A stochastic version of the Malthusian trap model relating the growth rate of income per capita to the population growth rate of a given country is described. This model is applied to the a priori evaluation of the cross‐sectional correlation between these two growth rates under two additional assumptions: i) the relations in the model at national levels include country‐specific and time‐invariant random components, and ii) these growth rates are measured with a certain degree of temporal aggregation. It is shown that these two assumptions can explain near‐zero correlations between the two growth rates even if there exist a strongly negative effect of population growth on economic growth. However it is not clear whether these assumptions fully explain such insignificant correlations. Indeed, the implementation of the model is complicated by the structural shifts which are likely to occur in the equations over the course of the demographic transition.     

Bootstrapping mean‐squared errors of robust small‐area estimators: Application to the method‐of‐payments surveys data

This paper proposes a new bootstrap procedure for mean‐squared errors of robust small‐area estimators. We formally prove the asymptotic validity of the proposed bootstrap method and examine its finite‐sample performance through Monte Carlo simulations. The results show that our procedure performs well and competes with existing ones. We also provide an application to the estimation of the total volume and value of cash, debit card, and credit card transactions in Canada as well as in its provinces and subgroups of households. In particular, we found that there is a significant average annual decline rate of 3.1% in the volume of cash transactions and that this decline is relatively higher among high‐income households living in heavily populated provinces. Our bootstrap estimator also provides indicators of quality useful in selecting the best small‐area predictor among several alternatives in practice.     

Enriching Surveys with Supplementary Data and its Application to Studying Wage Regression

We consider the problem of supplementing survey data with additional information from a population. The framework we use is very general; examples are missing data problems, measurement error models and combining data from multiple surveys. We do not require the survey data to be a simple random sample of the population of interest. The key assumption we make is that there exists a set of common variables between the survey and the supplementary data. Thus, the supplementary data serve the dual role of providing adjustments to the survey data for model consistencies and also enriching the survey data for improved efficiency. We propose a semi‐parametric approach using empirical likelihood to combine data from the two sources. The method possesses favourable large and moderate sample properties. We use the method to investigate wage regression using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth Study.     

Time use surveys,social practice theory,and activity connections

Social practice theory (SPT) represents a growing body of research that takes the ‘doings and sayings’ (social practices) of everyday life as its core unit of enquiry. Time use surveys (TUS) represent a substantial source of micro-data regarding how activities are performed across the 24-h day. Given their apparent complementarities, we ask why TUS have not been utilised more extensively within SPT-inspired research. We advance two contentions: (1) ontological tensions obscure the relevance of TUS data in addressing core SPT research questions, and (2) SPT concepts do not readily translate for application in TUS analysis. In response, we operationalise Schatzki's (2019) concepts of activity events and chains to explore types and forms of temporal activity connection. Using TUS data we examine three activity events: sleeping, reading, and eating. Two types of temporal activity connection (sequence and synchronisation) are identified, together with four forms of connectivity (degrees of uniformity/diversity, sequential directionality, time-varying connections, and symmetrical/asymmetrical relationships). While practices cannot be reduced to activity connections, we argue that this analytical approach offers a systematic basis for examining the ways in which activities combine to underpin the organisation of social practices. Further analysis to compare activity connections across practices, between different groups of practitioners, and over time would offer a valuable resource to empirically examine claims regarding core processes of societal change. We further contend that SPT approaches offer insights for time use research by providing a framework capable of recognising that activities are dynamic and variable rather than homogeneous and stable categories.     

Quod vadis? The effect of youth unemployment and demographic pressure on migration in the MENA region

Recent trends in international migration reveal increasing migration outflows from Middle Eastern and North African (MENA) countries. This development is accompanied by a massive rise in youth unemployment and a major increase in the young population in this region. This paper provides a quantitative assessment of migration patterns and analyses the interacting effect of the unfavourable combination of youth unemployment and demographic pressure on migration decisions. Based on an assessment of bilateral migration flows from 19 MENA to 34 OECD countries between 1995 and 2020, we find that youth unemployment plays a significant role in explaining emigration flows from MENA countries. We also find that the migration-generating effect of youth unemployment is contingent upon demographic pressure in the youth cohorts and increases with an increasing number of youths.