基于二阶段嵌套锡尔系数的人口分布的差异研究

文章首先提出了人口分布锡尔系数的概念及其一阶、二阶分解方法,接着以江苏省为研究区域,基于三大地带（苏南、苏中和苏北）、13个地级市、106个县（县级市、市辖区）三级结构的地域行政单元,分别运用一次、二次分解对全省的人口分布的区域差异进行细分测度．将江苏省人口分布的差异性分解为苏南、苏中、苏北三大地带闯的差异、三大地带内地级市之间的差异以及各地级市的内部差异三部分。其主要结论为：以地级市为计算单元的一阶段分解结果显示．苏南、苏中和苏北三个地带间人口分布的差异性是造成一阶段分解的全省人口分布差异的主要原因;以县级行政单元的二阶段分解结果表明．地级市内部的差异是江苏省人口分布的整体差异的主要构成部分;通过运用局部G统计量对各县级单元人口分布的热点探测发现,“热点”地区的人口分布差异性大．“冷点”地区的差异性小．     

Is demography destiny? The role of structural and demographic factors in Australis past and future labour supply

Following the release of the Intergenerational Report, the Australian Treasury identified the levers to address the economic effects of demographic ageing as ‘the three Ps’: population, participation and productivity. To date, the first ‘P’, population, has been treated as an exogenous factor, with the common view being that there is very little that the government can do to supplant demographic ageing. Focusing upon labour supply, this paper shows how variation in Australia’s underlying demography can significantly alter Australia’s future labour supply. Although governments cannot redirect the cohort flow component of population ageing, much can be achieved in promoting growth of the labour supply by maintaining or increasing fertility (in the longer term), or increasing targeted migration (in the short to medium term). This paper also decomposes the relative role of cohort flow, changing demography and changing labour force participation on the growth of the labour supply over the past 20 years. Over this period, the entry of the baby boom generation (cohort flow) and increased labour force participation of women accounted for almost all of the growth in the labour force. Changing demography had very little effect. However, Australias future labour supply will not include a large increase in cohort flow (as caused by the baby boomers) or a very large increase in female labour force participation. Regardless of the assumptions used, labour supply growth will be considerably lower in the next and subsequent 20 years, when compared to the previous 20.     

青海省人口与可持续发展

本文通过对青海省人口条件, 以及由于人口增长的无限性和生态空间支持能力的有限性而引起的两个重大矛盾： 一个是人口再生产物质资料再生产之间不平衡不协调、一个是人口———资源———环境之间原有的生态平衡受到破坏的分析, 指出了青海省国民经济发展必须把各项经济指标与人口的有关指标相结合,形成一个有机整体, 只有这样本省经济才可能得到持续发展,并针对此提出若干措施     

Assessing the devolution revolution: How accurate are state-level estimates from the current population survey

The devolution of many social policy responsibilities from the Federal government to states has prompted increased interest in state-level measures of need. One data source that could be used to provide more state-level information on a variety of topics is the Current Population Survey (CPS). During the past ten years the CPS has been used to produce state-level estimates on a variety of measures. However, there has been little systematic evaluation of these data. This paper provides measures of accuracy for several state-level estimates derived from the CPS. These include standard errors for single-year estimates, three-year averages, and five-year averages of the March CPS measures; standard errors for three-year averages of 12-month CPS files; and comparison of CPS-based estimates to data from the Decennial Census. The paper also examines the relative accuracy of CPS estimates based on states' size. The information in this study will help analysts better understand the tradeoffs between timeliness and accuracy to be considered when using state-level estimates derived from the CPS.     

人口老龄化与赡养问题的医学社会学分析

中国老人抚养问题不能只依靠家庭抚养,应逐渐转向社会抚养,即由家庭责任主体过渡到国家或社会责任主体。针对我国人口老龄化起步虽晚但发展速度却很快等特点,采用社会学方法对这一问题进行认真的统计,与其他国家进行比较和分析,很有现实意义。     

A reconstruction of the size and composition of Jewish Holocaust survivors in the Netherlands, 1945

Compared to other countries that have suffered from the Nazioccupation, the destructive impact of the Holocaust on theJewish population has been particularly strong in the Netherlands. This paper gives a demographicreconstruction of the Jewish population in the Netherlands by the end of the war (1945),disaggregated by age and sex. The reconstruction is based on two approaches: a forwardprojection 1941–1945, starting from registration data supplemented by information onHolocaust losses; and a backward projection 1966–1945, starting from an enumerationof Halachic Jews carried out in 1966. The two approaches yieldtwo estimates that are comfortingly similar.     

Immigration: Not a Solution to Problems of Population Decline and Aging

Population and Environment - This article is a synopsis of a UN study, with emphasis on Italy and the United States. In March, 2000, the United Nations Population Division published a 143-page...     

Soil Nutrient Depletion and Population Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Malthusian Nexus?

Soil nutrient mining and other forms of soil degradation threaten future soil productivity, especially in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Data from 36 countries in SSA show a significant relationship at the supra-national level between soil nutrient depletion (including erosion), reduced fallow periods, and population pressure and thus illustrate the unsustainable population-agriculture-environment nexus on the continent which so far has been described in case studies only. It appears that Malthusian mechanisms are at work, despite encouraging indications of farmers' concerns and adaptation to changing conditions. It is agreed that a re-examination of the common land degradation assessments and farmers' response to changing conditions would be useful, however, this should not delay other recommended interventions.     

关于完善农村老年人口养老体系的探讨

随着人口老龄化速度的加快,我国农村老年人口的养老问题备受关注.本文分析了老年养老体系的分类及构成要素,以此考察了我国农村老年人口养老体系的状况和所面临的挑战,同时提出了完善农村老年人口养老体系的建议.     

西部开发中深化流动人口计划生育管理的若干问题探讨

西部大开发将使流动人口与日俱增,要深化流动人口计生管理,领导重视是前提,宣传教育是先导,贯彻落实是关键,部门协调是保障,管理服务是途径,综合治理是方向.