Risk Perceptions,General Environmental Beliefs,and Willingness to Address Climate Change

The research reported here examines the relationship between risk perceptions and willingness to address climate change. The data are a national sample of 1225 mail surveys that include measures of risk perceptions and knowledge tied to climate change, support for voluntary and government actions to address the problem, general environmental beliefs, and demographic variables. Risk perceptions matter in predicting behavioral intentions. Risk perceptions are not a surrogate for general environmental beliefs, but have their own power to account for behavioral intentions. There are four secondary conclusions. First, behavioral intentions regarding climate change are complex and intriguing. People are neither nonbelievers who will take no initiatives themselves and oppose all government efforts, nor are they believers who promise both to make personal efforts and to vote for every government proposal that promises to address climate change. Second, there are separate demographic sources for voluntary actions compared with voting intentions. Third, recognizing the causes of global warming is a powerful predictor of behavioral intentions independent from believing that climate change will happen and have bad consequences. Finally, the success of the risk perception variables to account for behavioral intentions should encourage greater attention to risk perceptions as independent variables. Risk perceptions and knowledge, however, share the stage with general environmental beliefs and demographic characteristics. Although related, risk perceptions, knowledge, and general environmental beliefs are somewhat independent predictors of behavioral intentions.     

Structured approach to the elicitation of expert beliefs for a Bayesian‐designed clinical trial: a case study

To quantify uncertainty in a formal manner, statisticians play a vital role in identifying a prior distribution for a Bayesian‐designed clinical trial. However, when expert beliefs are to be used to form the prior, the literature is sparse on how feasible and how reliable it is to elicit beliefs from experts. For late‐stage clinical trials, high importance is placed on reliability; however, feasibility may be equally important in early‐stage trials. This article describes a case study to assess how feasible it is to conduct an elicitation session in a structured manner and to form a probability distribution that would be used in a hypothetical early‐stage trial. The case study revealed that by using a structured approach to planning, training and conduct, it is feasible to elicit expert beliefs and form a probability distribution in a timely manner. We argue that by further increasing the published accounts of elicitation of expert beliefs in drug development, there will be increased confidence in the feasibility of conducting elicitation sessions. Furthermore, this will lead to wider dissemination of the pertinent issues on how to quantify uncertainty to both practicing statisticians and others involved with designing trials in a Bayesian manner. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

外部风险、异质信念与特质波动率风险溢价

本文将影响资产价格的不确定性划分为基本面不确定性、市场层面以及公司层面外部因素不确定性,(后二者对基本面没有影响,是非基本面因素),认为投资者对基本面和外部因素分别形成异质信念.在此基础上用连续时间的鞅分析方法,在纯交换市场均衡模型的框架下,建立了基于投资者异质信念的消费资本资产定价模型.该模型从理论上证明了除来自总消...     

改革的困局与改革的突破

三十多年的改革开放使中国社会面貌发生了天翻地覆的变化。随着改革的继续深入,我们面临的问题越来越多,也越来越复杂:贫富差距拉大、腐败问题突出,官民矛盾激化、社会道德滑坡等等。在此情况下,必须重建共产主义理想信念,高扬中国特色社会主义的伟大旗帜,把切实改善民生作为改革的突破口,使公平正义的社会主义本质充分得到体现,同时要积极而有序地推进政治体制改革,使上层建筑与经济基础不断相互适应,努力构建和谐社会。     

敬惜字纸信仰论

对字纸的敬惜属于中国民间信仰的范畴。就敬惜字纸信仰的产生背景、敬惜方式、迷信化、社会功能等方面,作一些探讨。     

政治文明建设中的政治理念变迁解析

政治文明是人类文明中的政治层面,政治文明在很大程度上反映了整个社会、国家的文明水平,影响或制约着其他两个文明的发展进程。政治理念是政治文明的潜在因素,建设社会主义政治文明要从政治理念入手。通过分析中国政治文明建设,提出了五个理念变迁即政权合法性理念变迁、权力归属理念变迁、权力运行理念变迁、权力控制理念变迁、权力指向理念变迁。     

浅析高校大学生宗教信仰问题——基于宗教文化的视阈

宗教是一种社会文化现象。大学生宗教信仰问题是当前高校思想政治工作的一项难题。立足于宗教文化的定义及长期性、群体性、政治性、民族性、文化性的特征,具体分析目前我国宗教的具体特征,结合高校中宗教信仰的现实传播途径,针对性地提出一些建议和对策。     

布朗族民间信仰与差异化族群关系的建构——以老曼峨村为个案

以云南省勐海县老曼峨村为个案,介绍布朗族与周边的傣族、哈尼族、拉祜族村寨的族群关系,分析当地布朗族如何根据主观选择,将民间信仰作为建构差异化族群关系的手段和工具。     

公司业绩与财务政策的数理模型分析

通过引入管理者与投资者之间的信念分歧发现,公司的资本结构和股利政策的选择受同一个因素所驱动,即由共同被管理者和投资者之间的控制权分配的治理机制决定。债务与权益比率越高和股利支付率越高,将使投资者拥有更大的控制权。不考虑代理和信息不对称问题,由于经营者和投资者之间的信念分歧导致的控制权问题将产生对项目选择的分歧。这种潜在分歧的程度依赖于公司以前的业绩。     

试论近代早期英国妖巫信仰中的"听差精灵"

妖巫信仰是近代早期欧洲普遍存在的现象,但在各国具体表现形式并不完全相同。在英国,“听差精灵”观念显得较为特殊。它不仅在英国妖巫信仰中占据着重要地位,同时亦标识出英国妖巫信仰在近代早期欧洲的独特性。