妇女、家庭与生育

在临近20世纪末的时候,人们发现家庭制度已经发生了很大的变化,呈现出一幅之多散漫的状态,那么在这些变化中,妇女在家庭与生育问题中所处的地位发生了多少变化,我们希望通过国内外的一些数字来说明问题。因为这些数字的背后折射地是一个心理观念、价值取向的现实问题。数字告诉我们妇女、家庭与生育问题也是一个事关社会稳定与发展的大问题。     

生育政策调整目标实现的困境及破解--基于女性个体发展视角的分析

女性的生育行为是我国生育政策调整的落脚点,然而单纯的生育政策调整并不能对当前女性生育行为产生实质性影响。独生子女时代形塑的生育价值观念、工业经济催生的工具主义生育理性,有效地抵消了生育政策调整的预期效果。社会主义市场经济条件下,深度参与劳动力市场的女性更重视个体发展和个人价值的实现,个人与社会的关系得到强化,而与家庭的关系趋于弱化,然而生育行为易导致其个人发展陷入困境。由此,生育政策调整若要实现预期目标,需要补偿女性因生育行为所产生的损失,从社会政策体系方面构建有利于女性生育的环境,否则只是单纯地放宽生育子女数量和适度延长产假,无法激励女性生育,更无法改变女性生育于自身个体发展方面的不利现状。     

Demographic Differentials and Demographic Integration of Turkish and Kurdish Populations in Turkey

The objectives of the study are threefold: (1) to provide estimates of the total populations and spatial distributions of different language groups in Turkey, (2) to test whether the commonly held belief that Turkish-speaking and Kurdish-speaking populations are “actors” of different demographic regimes is true, and (3) to assess whether a process of integration, in the form of intermarriage of Turks and Kurds is under way in Turkey. Data come mainly from the 2003 Turkish Demographic and Health Survey (TDHS-2003). Based on the assumption that the mother tongue composition of women is also representative of that of the whole population, the results of the TDHS-2003 imply that of the population of Turkey, 83% are Turkish-speaking, 14% are Kurdish-speaking, 2% are Arabic-speaking and the remaining 1% belong to other language groups. Results show that despite intensive internal migration movements in the last 50 years, strong demographic differentials exist between Turkish and Kurdish-speaking populations, and that the convergence of the two groups does not appear to be a process under way. Turks and Kurds do indeed appear to be actors of different demographic regimes, at different stages of demographic and health transition processes.     

移民的文化适应：宁夏吊庄移民的生育观念调适

以扶贫与保护生态环境为重要出发点的宁夏吊庄移民规划,使居住在宁夏西海固地区的大量回族群众搬迁到了宁夏北部易于得到黄河灌溉的地区。伴随着这样的移民搬迁,回族群众的思想观念必然发生变迁。在移民的各种思想观念中,生育观念的转变体现得最为直接与明显。因此,移民群众在生育观念方面的调适就显得极为重要。移民迁出地的历史传统、文化习俗以及迁入地的社会观念、价值标准．都深刻地影响着移民的生育观念。在这些因素中,迁入地城市文化的影响则是一个极为重要的因素。     

关于调整我国现行生育政策的思考

在为什么需要适时调整我国现行生育政策上,应恰如其分地认识它对减缓未来人口老龄化和老年抚养比严重程度、增强未来家庭养老功能、促进未来广大少年儿童身心健康成长和抑制未来出生人口性别比持续升高的作用;在何时调整我国现行生育政策上,从多方面考虑以2015年后较为合适;在如何调整我国现行生育政策上,最好采取"新人新办法,老人老办法"的"双轨制"。     

The limited effect of increasing educational attainment on childlessness trends in twentieth-century Europe,women born 1916–65

During the twentieth century, trends in childlessness varied strongly across European countries while educational attainment grew continuously across them. Using census and large-scale survey data from 13 European countries, we investigated the relationship between these two factors among women born between 1916 and 1965. Up to the 1940 birth cohort, the share of women childless at age 40+ decreased universally. Afterwards, the trends diverged across countries. The results suggest that the overall trends were related mainly to changing rates of childlessness within educational groups and only marginally to changes in the educational composition of the population. Over time, childlessness levels of the medium-educated and high-educated became closer to those of the low-educated, but the difference in level between the two better educated groups remained stable in Western and Southern Europe and increased slightly in the East.     

A lost family-planning regime in eighteenth-century Ceylon

Based on Dutch colonial registers (thombos), this paper reconstructs fertility for two districts in Ceylon, 1756–68. It overcomes challenges in data quality by establishing the outer bounds of plausible estimates in a series of scenarios. Among these, total fertility rates (TFRs) averaged 5.5 in one district, but only 2.7 in the other. These figures exclude the victims of infanticide, a custom noted in European travelogues between about 1660 and 1820. Sex ratios among children differed depending on the number of older siblings, and overall, 27?per cent of girls are missing in one district and 57?per cent in the other. There was little significant variation either in the TFR or the sex ratio by socio-economic status, suggesting that poverty was not a key factor in motivating infanticides. Instead, we argue that at least parts of Ceylon had a forward-looking culture of family planning in the eighteenth century, which was lost in subsequent decades.     

人口生产偏好转变下的农业技术进步

市场化改革以来,中国农村居民的人口生产发生了由高生育率、低人力资本积累率向低生育率、高人力资本积累率的明显转变。这一转变通过农业从业人员数量下降、农村劳动力人力资本水平的提高以及农业物质资本积累的加速,有力地推动了农业技术进步。     

The Italian Labour Force Survey to estimate fertility

The own-children method (OCM) applied to the Italian Labour Force Survey (ILFS) is an alternative way to give information on fertility for the years before the survey. By deriving children information and the population at risk on the basis of parents’ characteristics, a large-scale dataset for fertility analysis in Italy becomes available, also to reconstruct event histories. The quality assessment provided by comparing the total fertility rate (TFR) calculated on ILFS with the official regional and national TFRs by ISTAT gives us usable outcomes.     

Causality and interdependence analysis in linear econometric models with an application to fertility

This paper is an applied analysis of the causal structure of linear multi-equational econometric models. Its aim is to identify the kind of relationships linking the endogenous variables of the model, distinguishing between causal links and feedback loops. The investigation is first carried out within a deterministic framework and then moves on to show how the results may change inside a more realistic stochastic context. The causal analysis is then specifically applied to a linear simultaneous equation model explaining fertility rates. The analysis is carried out by means of a specific RATS programming code designed to show the specific nature of the relationships within the model.