The Role of Contraceptive Supply and Demand in Mexican Fertility Decline: Evidence from a Microdemographic Study

This paper uses retrospective life history data to assess the impact of family planning services on contraceptive use in a rural Mexican township. Between 1960 and 1990 contraceptive use rose and fertility declined dramatically. Both contraceptive supply and demand factors were influential in these trends. The start of the government-sponsored family planning programme in the late 1970s was associated with a sharp rise in female sterilization and use of the IUD. However, once we controlled for the changing socio-economic and demographic characteristics of the sample, the presence of family planning services had no significant effect on the likelihood that women used modern reversible methods compared to traditional methods. Men and women expressed concerns about the safety of modern methods such as the pill and the IUD. Efforts to increase modern contraceptive use should place greater emphasis on communicating the safety of these methods and improving the quality of services.     

Individual and community effects of women's education and autonomy on contraceptive use in India

This study makes use of the National Family Health Survey of 1998‐99 to investigate whether differences in women's autonomy can explain much of the relationship between education and contraceptive use among married Indian women with at least one child. The analyses show that a woman's education does not influence her contraceptive use through a strengthening of her position in relation to that of men, but that the inclusion of a simple indicator of her general knowledge reduces education effects appreciably. Further, the average educational level of other women in the census‐enumeration area has an effect on a woman's contraceptive use above and beyond that of her own education. This effect cannot be explained by the specific indicators of autonomy, but can to some extent be explained by the son preference of the community. The latter is a more general autonomy indicator that may also pick up other contextual factors.     

Changing compatibility of cohabitation and childbearing between young British women born in 1958 and 1970

We investigate the effect of parenthood on whether non-marital unions led to marriage or parting for two cohorts of British women when they were aged between 16 and 29. We compare the effect of conceptions leading to births and the presence and characteristics of children on the odds that a cohabitation was dissolved, or that it was converted to marriage, for women born in 1958 and 1970. A multilevel, multiprocess, competing-risks model allows for multiple cohabitations per woman and endogeneity of fertility status. We find that cohabiting couples’ response to impending parenthood and the presence of children changed over time. In particular, the proportion of cohabiting couples who married before a birth decreased and, in the 1970 cohort only, the risk of dissolution declined during pregnancy. There is also evidence that the presence of a child cemented a cohabiting union for women from the 1970, but not the earlier, cohort.     

Motherhood status and union formation in Moshi,Tanzania 2002–2003

Age at first union is increasing throughout much of sub-Saharan Africa at the same time that not all couples are waiting for marriage before their first sexual intercourse. We assessed the effect of a premarital first birth on entrance into a first union in an urban area in East Africa—Moshi, Tanzania. The data come from the Moshi Infertility Survey of 2002–2003. Women who spent less than a year in single motherhood were significantly more likely than childless women to enter into a first union, although the magnitude of this relationship was weaker for more recent cohorts. Women who had been single mothers for 5 or more years (about two-thirds of women with a premarital birth) were significantly less likely than women without children to enter into a first union.     

Family allowances in France

We model the impact of past migration on fertility, assessing the separate effects of relative urbanization of the destination, as a proxy for norms, and post-migration employment, as a proxy for opportunity costs. In the Philippines, we find that large fertility declines accompany post-migration employment. If not followed by work for pay, the estimated fertility impact of migration is small. We find little evidence of migrant selectivity in fertility, and offer speculative evidence that fertility disruption accompanying migration may be large enough to account for much of the apparent effect of normative adaptation.     

The Activities of the Elderly in Rural Bangladesh

Despite a mounting interest in the elderly, and a rapidly expanding literature on the subject, there is a dearth of empirical research that can shed light on their condition. For Bangladesh and the rest of South Asia, the record is very thin. With the aid of observed and retrospective data on time-use from a sample of rural Bangladeshis, this paper seeks to help redress this situation by describing the role of the elderly in the household division of labour, management, and authority. The objective is to elaborate how labour-use and activity patterns change with advancing age, for men and women and rich and poor, and to explore the broader implications of such change. Concepts of work, retirement, and dependency are critically examined. The results of several labour surveys are used to estimate the limits that the physical effects of ageing place on the labour-force participation of the elderly.     

Some principles of cost-benefit analysis of family planning services in developing countries

A number of controversial issues are discussed, relating to the assessment of both costs and benefits of family planning services. All costs and benefits, whether accruing to society or the parents of the child whose birth is averted, and the child itself, should be included in the analysis, even if they cannot easily be measured or appear as externalities. Different rates of interest to be used in discounting to obtain present values apply to various items; these rates may vary between the commercial rates of interest and negative values. It is also shown that the costs of running a service include, in addition to current expenditure, not only basic investments, but also that the benefit accruing to society by averting births comprises a kind of investment, namely the amount spent on the subsistence of the child whose birth is averted before he would have started producing. Marginal values are to be preferred to average values for the calculation of costs and benefits. Thus, the costs of a family planning service should be expressed as the amount of money needed to avert one additional birth and the benefits as the amount saved by one additional averted birth. The latter cannot be measured by comparing the GNP per head when the birth is averted, with the situation when it is not. This can only be done by computing the excess of the child’s life-time consumption over his life-time production.     

Demographic transition in sub-Saharan Africa: How big will the economic dividend be?

In mid-demographic-transition, many Asian countries enjoyed a large demographic ‘dividend’: extra economic growth owing to falling dependant/workforce ratios, or slower natural increase, or both. We estimate the dividend, 1985–2025, in sub-Saharan Africa and its populous countries. Dependency and natural increase peaked around 1985, 20 years after Asia. The UN projects an acceleration of the subsequent slow falls but disregards slowish declines in young-age mortality and thus, we argue, overestimates future fertility decline. Even if one accepts their projection, arithmetical and econometric evidence suggests an annual, if not total, dividend well below Asia's. The dividend arises more from falling dependency than reduced natural increase, and could be increased by accelerating the fertility decline (e.g., by reducing young-age mortality) or by employing a larger workforce productively. Any dividend from transition apart, low saving in much of Africa (unlike Asia) means that, given likely natural increase, current consumption per person is unsustainable because it depletes capital per person.     

Distribution of Closed Birth Intervals in a Heterogeneous Population

The probability distribution of parity-specific closed birth intervals in a heterogeneous population of women is obtained from Biswas' (1980) concept of gradually decreasing fecundabilities. The distribution of parity-specific last closed birth intervals and its moments of various orders are derived for a heterogeneous female population. Simulations are used to compare with models for a homogeneous female population with constant fecundability. The consideration of heterogeneity allows a better fit for empirical closed birth intervals.     

生育水平、性别偏好和出生性别比——兼论出生性别比的监测方法

本研究以马-冯-陈模型为定性基础,认为一定人口的出生性别比并非固定不变,而是受到生育水平的影响。当无性别偏好时,生育水平主要通过改变不同孩次占出生人口比例的方式影响出生性别比;当有性别偏好时,生育水平既影响不同孩次占总出生人口的比例,又影响不同孩次的出生性别比,从而对总出生性别比产生影响。对于没有性别偏好和性别选择行为的人口,生育水平变化是引起出生性别比波动的主要原因。有性别选择行为时,生育水平变化对出生性别比的影响较小,性别选择行为是出生性别比异常的主要原因。监测以"曾生子女孩次和性别次序"为条件划分的人群,可以有效而便捷地判断出生性别比变化趋势。