“全面二孩”政策背景下女性社会保障存在的问题及对策分析

女性社会保障是整个社会保障体系中不可缺少的重要组成部分,是对女性权益的保护,对促进女性发展、推动男女平等的实现以及推动社会进步、构建和谐家庭具有重要意义.全面二孩政策背景下,女性社会保障面临新的挑战与问题,如何积极有效应对,不仅关系到生育政策的顺利实施,更关系到经济社会的长远发展.     

Immigrant mothers’ preferences for children’s sexes: A register-based study of fertility behaviour in Norway

Parental sex preferences have been documented in many native populations, but much less evidence is available on immigrants’ preferences for the sexes of their children. Using high-quality longitudinal register data from Norway, a country with a recent immigration history, we estimate hazards regression models of third birth risks by the sex composition of the first two children. A central question in the extant literature is whether the sex preferences of immigrant mothers match those observed in their country of origin, or if cultural adaption to local conditions is more important. Our analyses indicate that the sex preferences of immigrants generally match those previously documented for their native population, especially in the case of son preferences. The pattern of sex preferences is unmodified by the mother’s exposure to the host society. In sum, our evidence generally supports theories emphasizing cultural persistence in preferences, rather than theories of adaption or immigrant selectivity.     

Explaining religious differentials in family-size preference: Evidence from Nepal in 1996

We examine how religio-ethnic identity, individual religiosity, and family members' religiosity were related to preferred family size in Nepal in 1996. Analyses of survey data from the Chitwan Valley Family Study show that socio-economic characteristics and individual experiences can suppress, as well as largely account for, religio-ethnic differences in fertility preference. These religio-ethnic differentials are associated with variance in particularized theologies or general value orientations (like son preference) across groups. In addition, individual and family religiosity are both positively associated with preferred family size, seemingly because of their association with religious beliefs—beliefs that are likely to shape fertility strategies. These findings suggest the need for improvements in how we conceptualize and measure supra-individual religious influence in a variety of settings and for a range of demographically interesting outcomes.     

村级计划生育工作与稳定低生育水平

我国稳定低生育水平工作的重点在农村。而农村目前存在干部认识不到位、依法行政不规范、宣传教育不深入、队伍素质不高、资金投入不足等问题。应采取强化宣传、村民自治、优质服务、正确导向、有效管理等措施 ,以确保农村低生育水平的稳定     

From Successful Family Planning to the Lowest of Low Fertility Levels: Taiwan's Dilemma

Since the implementation of family planning in the 1960s, Taiwan's fertility rate has rapidly decreased. This was praised as a family planning achievement. However, in the 21st century Taiwan has become one of the lowest of low fertility countries like European countries [ Kohler, H. P., Billari, F. C., & Ortega, J. A. (2002) . Population and Development Review , 28 (4), 641–80]. The government has begun to worry that these extremely low birthrates will result in rapid population aging and bring about other negative socio-economic effects. Thus, in its Mega Warmth Social Welfare Program (MWSWP) of 2006, the Taiwanese government targeted the issue of low birthrates. Based on secondary data analysis, we found that the reasons for rapid decrease in Taiwanese birthrates are: (i) a declining marriage rate; (ii) later marriage; (iii) changing attitudes towards child bearing; (iv) the burdens of child care; and (v) an increase in female labour participation rates. The MWSWP includes maternity leave benefits, parental leave benefits, a childcare subsidy system and early children education and care (ECEC). First, this article presents a chronological understanding of the demography in Taiwan. Second, we attempt to evaluate the reasons contributing to the low birthrates. The policy response to this is discussed next. Finally, the article provides a careful conclusion: that the extent to which these policies can significantly stop the population from declining requires further observation.     

Explaining Family Change and Variation: Challenges for Family Demographers

Twenty years ago, the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (NICHD) issued a request for proposals that resulted in the National Survey of Families and Households (NSFH), a unique survey valuable to a wide range of family scholars. This paper describes the efforts of an interdisciplinary group of family demographers to build on the progress enabled by the NSFH and many other theoretical and methodological innovations. Our work, also supported by NICHD, will develop plans for research and data collection to address the central question of what causes family change and variation. We outline the group's initial assessments of orienting frameworks, key aspects of family life to study, and theoretical and methodological challenges for research on family change. Finally, we invite family scholars to follow our progress and to help develop this shared public good.     

中国生育问题研究综述：2006-2007

过去一年里，人口学界对中国生育问题的研究主要集中于中国目前生育水平的估算和中国未来生育政策的选择，同时对建设新型生育文化也日渐关注。因此，有必要对上述研究领域的研究成果作概括性的回顾与评述。     

应用队列累计生育率分析我国生育水平变动趋势——兼与郭志刚教授讨论

本文对反映生育水平的两个基本指标——总和生育率和队列累计生育率进行分析,肯定多年来多个调查所得到的队列累计生育率的数据质量。尽管队列累计生育率反映的是"过去"而不是"当前"的实际生育水平,但历次调查所反映出的1990年代以来生育水平变化趋势是持续下降,并推断近几年的总和生育率已经下降到1.6以下。     

稳定低生育水平战略决策的回顾与前瞻

我国提出计划生育政策和稳定低生育水平的战略决策有深刻的历史背景,是对我国国情的理性判断.而当前我国的人口问题已不同于实行计划生育以前的人口问题,除了人口数量依然需要给予足够的重视外,人口质量、结构、流动迁移等问题比以前更为复杂多样,也需要得到充分关注.如果不能把低生育水平稳定住,各种人口问题会变得更加严峻,因此,稳定低生育水平是我国在人口问题上重大战略决策的继续和完善,是理性的选择.通过节约人口投资、推动城乡改革、提高我国整体实力和国际竞争力、缓解人口对资源环境的压力,为提升两代人的人力资本创造条件.稳定低生育率能促进生产力发展,提高人民生活质量,实现社会的和谐进步.此外,稳定低生育率还为我国庞大的人口转化为丰富的人力资源创造条件.虽然继续稳定低生育率也必将伴随一些负面影响,但总的来说对我国今后经济社会发展利大于弊.生育水平并不是越低越好,根据人口发展的特点,结合我国的实际情况,总和生育率(TFR)稳定在1.8左右在一个时期内是较优的选择.     

国外生育意愿研究经验对国内相关研究的启示与反思

发达国家第一次人口转变、第二次人口转变均早于中国,在生育意愿研究领域积累了丰富的经验。首先是生育意愿概念、测量方法以及生育意愿特性界定上比较科学合理。其次在理论分析框架上,从生育意愿的计划行为理论,到生育意愿变动的生育周期控制理论,构建了完备的理论分析体系。三是基于理论指导,深刻分析文化规范、经济因素、职业冲突、家庭权利分配等对生育意愿的影响,避免了将一些人口学特征、家庭特征统一归为影响因素。而这些值得借鉴的研究成果恰恰为国内学者所忽略,由于国内生育意愿测量方法的不科学,也导致生育意愿对未来生育水平的预测能力大大降低。