The analysis of age-specific fertility patterns via logistic models

In this paper, we introduce logistic models to analyse fertility curves. The models are formulated as linear models of the log odds of fertility and are defined in terms of parameters that are interpreted as measures of level, location and shape of the fertility schedule. This parameterization is useful for the evaluation, and interpretation of fertility trends and projections of future period fertility. For a series of years, the proposed models admit a state-space formulation that allows a coherent joint estimation of parameters and forecasting. The main features of the models compared with other alternatives are the functional simplicity, the flexibility, and the interpretability of the parameters. These and other features are analysed in this paper using examples and theoretical results. Data from different countries are analysed, and to validate the logistic approach, we compare the goodness of fit of the new model against well-known alternatives; the analysis gives superior results in most developed countries.     

Family Changes in the Context of Lowest-Low Fertility: The Case of Japan

Abstract: Japan has currently one of the lowest-low fertility rates in the world. Low fertility in Japan is due to the extreme postponement of marriage and childbearing, and their weak recuperation in women in their 30s, as well as very low levels of cohabitation and extra-marital fertility. Both changing and unchanged aspects of families are related to lowest-low fertility in Japan. Although premarital sexual activities have increased, women's contraceptive initiative is very weak: they may be connected with weak partnership formation. "Parasite singles", "freeters", or "NEETs", probably related to weak family formation, have increased, but they may be connected with strong filial bondage derived from the traditional family system, i.e. Women have been normatively, educationally, and occupationally emancipated, but gender norms are currently divided in half among Japanese people, which may deter the revising of working conditions for women with children, leading to delaying family formation among working women. Lowest-low fertility conversely brings about family changes. Its direct effect is the increase of lifetime celibacy and childless couples, which may jeopardize the universality of families. Its indirect effect is through policy response to low fertility as well as labor shortages and population aging: recently, both family and labor policies have been strengthened to make it easier for working women to continue their jobs after marriage and childbirth, which might in turn promote family formation in Japan.     

Increasing Childlessness in Germany and Japan: Toward a Childless Society?

Abstract: This paper focuses on childlessness in Germany and Japan and its sociological meanings in family formation in postmodern societies. First, it shows the trends of fertility decline and increasing childlessness, and clarifies the similarities and differences in both countries, by comparing parity composition, educational attainment, and other socioeconomic correlates of childlessness. Second, using the data of attitudinal surveys, such as the 2003 Population Policy Acceptance Study (PPAS) in Germany and the 13th National Fertility Survey (JNFS; 2005) in Japan, the reasons for having no children are observed. Third, referring to the discussions of German scholars, it tries to explain the sociological meanings of childlessness and to describe the development toward a childless society (even if it's demographically not sustainable) as one of the possible consequences of the Second Demographic Transition. Important findings are as follows: (1) In Germany the fertility decline began early in the mid-1960s but in Japan later from mid-1970s so that the increase of childlessness has been a little delayed. The proportion of childless women in Western Germany increased to 28% for the 1967 cohort. In Japan, it has increased to 12.7% for the 1960 cohort, but is expected to reach 30% for the 1970 cohort. (2) The educational gap in childlessness is clearly observed in Germany; however, this is not so simple in Japan. Corresponding with the increase of childlessness, the desired number of children in average is declining. The emergence of a child-free culture is observed in Germany by PPAS, but not yet in Japan by JNFS. (3) Polarization may proceed further in both countries, between childless people and people with many children.     

生育文明与我国未来生育率控制

我国的生育率变化一直以来都与生育文明的发展有着密切的关系。深厚的传统生育文化支持着我国农业社会的高生育水平,这在历史上起到过一定的积极作用,但是庞大的人口数量越来越成为我国经济社会发展的包袱。我国现阶段生育率已经在计划生育政策的控制下,达到了一个较低的标准。但是,这种低生育水平还很不稳定,也不可避免的带来了一些社会问题。随着我国经济发展和社会转型,推进生育文明的发展将成为稳定低生育水平,实现适度人口规模的最好方法。     

Interpretation of Guiding Opinions on Strengthening Fundamental Family Planning Work at Grassroots Level by NHFPC

正On 2 July 2014,National Health and Family Planning Commission(NHFPC)issued Guiding Opinions on Strengthening Fundamental Family Planning Work at Grassroots Level,(hereinafter referred to as Guiding Opinions).The document is interpreted as follows.Necessity for Formulating Guiding Opinions The central government has emphasized for many times that family planning can only be strengthened but not weakened in the work of institutional reconstruction and adjustment and improvement of fertility policy.In order to     

中国人口分布的时空演化研究：直面社会与经济双重困扰

人口是建立社会与经济之间联系的中介变量,人口空间分布又是全球性问题。当代中国,移民作为城市化的结果,其受社会经济发展水平决定;在人口、经济和社会互动发展过程中,城市化则是人口城乡和区域空间分布演变的主要内容。在时间层面上,社会经济发展模式和演化内生于人口数量和结构转变;在空间视阈下,人口地域分布适宜性包括城乡和区域两方面内容。通过梳理相关文献,总结人口空间分布特征事实,发现时空演化规律具有重要的学术创新和实践指导价值。作为第一人口大国,谋求社会与经济稳定发展是解决人口问题的基础之基础,中国人口与发展再次行至十字路口,人口研究不能刻舟求剑;其不仅是重大学术性命题,更是社会、经济性实践难题。研究分析需要立足中国实情,贯穿全文的逻辑主线是人口转变和空间分布,主题是人口、社会和经济协调发展,目标是建构中国人口空间分布理论体系。     

Updating the Debate on Intergenerational Fairness in Pension Reform

This article examines the arguments involved in claims about the fairness or unfairness of government policies that would require current working generations to bear the full impact of their lower fertility on the costs of retirement pensions. The analysis is set in the context of a wider review of debate on the role of the idea of generational fairness in assessing options for reform under conditions of population ageing. The article considers three questions: whether generational fairness poses a serious problem for pay‐as‐you‐go pension schemes; whether it is reasonable to assess the generational fairness of pension policy in isolation from other kinds of generational transfer; and whether there is a good case for redistribution from future generations in favour of the baby boom generation.     

Recent European fertility patterns: Fitting curves to ‘distorted’ distributions

Recent patterns of fertility in Europe show marked differences between countries. Recent United Kingdom and Irish fertility curves show ‘distortions’ in terms of a ‘bulge’ in early age fertility, distinct from the smoother curves of other European countries. These patterns may not be adequately described by mathematical functions used by previous studies to model fertility curves. A mixture model with two component distributions may be more appropriate. The suitability of the simple and mixture Hadwiger functions is examined in relation to the fertility curves of a number of European countries. While the simple Hadwiger model fits recent period age-specific fertility distributions for some countries, others which display a ‘bulge’ in early age fertility require a mixture Hadwiger model. Some of the parameters of the Hadwiger models appear to be related to familiar demographic indices. The simple and mixture Hadwiger models appear useful in describing and comparing fertility patterns across European countries.     

丰产的文化理性解释——云南诺邓历史上两套丰产仪式之研究

云南诺邓历史上同时存在两套丰产仪式:一套是接水魂仪式,以祈求卤水丰旺、井盐丰产;另一套是舞龙求雨仪式,以祈求雨水(淡水)丰沛、农耕丰产。从井盐生产的实践理性看,卤水与淡水之间构成此消彼长的对立关系,两套丰产仪式的并存看似是相互矛盾的。看似相悖的两套丰产仪式要诉诸文化理性的解释才能得以全面理解。在文化理性的观照下,这两套丰产仪式的共存并不矛盾,它们祈求的是包括自我与邻人在内的整体丰产。     

Age at first marriage in Malawi: a Bayesian multilevel analysis using a discrete time-to-event model

Summary.  The paper presents a hierarchical discrete time survival model for the analysis of the 2000 Malawi Demographic and Health Survey data to assess the determinants of transition to marriage among women in Malawi. The model explicitly accounts for the unobserved heterogeneity by using family and community random effects with cross-level correlation structure. A nonparametric technique is used to model the base-line discrete hazard dynamically. Parameters of the model are computed by using a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. The results show that rising age at marriage is a combination of birth cohort and education effects, depends considerably on the family and to some extent on the community in which a woman resides and the correlation between family and community random effects is negative. These results confirm a downward trend in teenage marriage and that raising women's education levels in sub-Saharan Africa has the beneficial effect of increasing age at marriage, and by implication reducing total fertility rates. The negative correlation between family and community random effects has policy implications in that targeting communities with an intervention to increase age at first marriage may not necessarily yield reduced fertility levels in individual families. A campaign that is geared towards individual families would achieve the desired goals. Overall, the findings point to the need for the Government in Malawi to enact public policies which are geared at vastly improving women's education at higher levels. The variation in marriage rates over families poses problems in delivering the policy, since particular policies must be devised for specific groups of families to accomplish the required social and health objectives.