Linking Decision Theory and Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment: Tradeoffs Between Compliance and Efficacy for Waterborne Disease Interventions

Achieving health gains from the U.N. Sustainable Development Goals of universal coverage for water and sanitation will require interventions that can be widely adopted and maintained. Effectiveness—how an intervention performs based on actual use—as opposed to efficacy will therefore be central to evaluations of new and existing interventions. Incomplete compliance—when people do not always use the intervention and are therefore exposed to contamination—is thought to be responsible for the lower‐than‐expected risk reductions observed from water, sanitation, and hygiene interventions based on their efficacy at removing pathogens. We explicitly incorporated decision theory into a quantitative microbial risk assessment model. Specifically, we assume that the usability of household water treatment (HWT) devices (filters and chlorine) decreases as they become more efficacious due to issues such as taste or flow rates. Simulations were run to examine the tradeoff between device efficacy and usability. For most situations, HWT interventions that trade lower efficacy (i.e., remove less pathogens) for higher compliance (i.e., better usability) contribute substantial reductions in diarrheal disease risk compared to devices meeting current World Health Organization efficacy guidelines. Recommendations that take into account both the behavioral and microbiological properties of treatment devices are likely to be more effective at reducing the burden of diarrheal disease than current standards that only consider efficacy.     

Kumulation von Mikrodaten – Konzeptionelle Grundlagen und ein Vorschlag zur Realisierung

Zusammenfassung: In dieser Studie wird ein Konzept zur Kumulation von laufenden Haushaltsbudgetbefragungen im Rahmen des Projektes Amtliche Statistik und sozioökonomische Fragestellungen entwickelt und zur Diskussion gestellt. Dafür werden die theoretischen Grundlagen und Bausteine gelegt und die zentrale Aufgabe einer strukturellen demographischen Gewichtung mit einem Hochrechnungs–/Kalibrierungsansatz auf informationstheoretischer Basis gelöst.Vor dem Hintergrund der Wirtschaftsrechnungen des Statistischen Bundesamtes (Lfd. Wirtschaftsrechnungen und EVS) wird darauf aufbauend ein konkretes Konzept für die Kumulation von jährlichen Haushaltsbudgetbefragungen vorgeschlagen. Damit kann das Ziel einer Kumulation von Querschnitten mit einer umfassenderen Kumulationsstichprobe für tief gegliederte Analysen erreicht werden. Folgen sollen die Simulationsrechnungen zur Evaluation des Konzepts.

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Summary: In this study a concept for cumulating periodic household surveys within the frame of the project Official Statistics and Socio–Economic Questions is developed and asks for discussion. We develop the theoretical background and solve the central task of a structural demographic weighting/calibration based on an information theoretical approach.Based on the household budget surveys of the Federal Statistical Office (Periodic Household Budget Surveys and Income and Consumption Sample (EVS)) a practical concept is proposed to cumulate yearly household surveys. This allows a cumulation of cross–sections by a comprehensive cumulated sample for deeply structured analyses. In a following study this concept shall be evaluated.

     

物权担保竞合时效力位阶的法理解析——兼论《担保法司法解释》第79条

在同一标的物上设定多个担保物权而发生竞合时,各担保物权的效力位阶状态,在担保法理论上是一重要而困难的问题,同时因中国相关立法缺憾,已成担保实务的严重障碍。文章从抵押权与质权竞合、抵押权与留置权竞合、质权与留置权竞合的三种形态入手,将担保物权设定的时间先后作为解析问题的逻辑要件,充分且谨慎地考量动产担保物权登记、标的物占有等情形,以物权法基本理论为论证逻辑基点,较翔实地剖析了物权担保竞合时效力位阶。主张将来立法时应基于设定优先原则、占有优先原则、登记优先原则等来确定担保物权竞合时效力位阶。     

无纸化条件下的证券法律关系分析

证券无纸化后,证券法律关系发生了很大的变化。无纸化条件下证券的主要法律关系可以概括为＂四方主体＋三大法律关系＂。投资人与发行人间的法律关系因持有模式的不同而相异;发行人、投资人与证券登记机构之间的法律关系分别为证券登记法律关系和证券存管法律关系,随着中央证券登记结算机构的出现,证券登记和证券存管逐渐趋同;投资人与证券经纪商（直接中介商）之间的关系总体上是一种民事代理关系,这些关系的具体内容由当事人之间的约定和有关法律法规等规范性文件的规定共同确定,具有约定性和法定性双重属性。     

推进户籍制度改革面临的深层次问题

户籍制度改革是一个系统工程,涉及方方面面的问题。户籍制度改革重在赋权和增利,即通过一系列改革,让农民与市民享有同等权利,获得同等利益,拥有同等福利。一旦在城乡实现基本公共服务均等化,城乡分割的户籍制度就自然消亡。我国之所以会出现人口城市化严重滞后于土地城市化,在于土地制度改革未能取得突破性进程,“土地价格剪刀差”成为地方政府财政收入的重要来源。只有转变政府职能,使地方政府从经济建设型政府转变为公共服务型政府,才能为城乡基本公共服务均等化创造体制性条件。     

农村未成年人违法犯罪的原因与防治措施研究——以陕西省为例

为了研究农村籍未成年人违法犯罪问题,采用了实证分析和思辨分析相结合的方法,以陕西省为例,通过实地调研,对陕西省农村未成年人违法犯罪的现状及特征进行了详细分析。调查研究的结果表明:价值观念扭曲、家庭教育功能的弱化与缺失、学校教育的错位以及农村社区功能的不健全是导致农村未成年人违法犯罪的主要原因,并据此提出了相应的预防和减少农村未成年人犯罪的相关政策建议。     

中国户籍制度改革的困境及其求解——以成都户籍制度改革为例

文章在梳理我国户籍制度形成、改革的基础上,提出我国户籍制度改革面临的城市负担能力、普惠型社会福利、进城农民土地处置等困境,并以当前成都市所推行的户籍制度改革为蓝本分析了其解决这些困境的努力,提出了成都户籍制度改革对全国户籍制度的启示。      

二元户籍管理制度的负面影响及改革措施

中国二元户籍管理制度在经历制度的初建阶段、法制建设阶段和制度完善阶段之后逐渐形成控制人口迁移、调控社会资源分配、划分等级身份等重要功能,这对中国经济发展、城市化建设等方面产生消极影响。完善户口登记制度、改变户口迁移程序、坚持户籍制度与相关制度改革综合推进等改革措施势在必行。     

Churning races in Canada: Visible minority response change between 2006 and 2011

Why do most people have stable responses to census race questions, while some do not? Using linked Canadian data, we examine personal, social, and economic characteristics that predict response stability as White or as one of six large visible minority groups, versus a change in response to/from White or to/from another visible minority group. Response change rates in Canada are generally comparable to those in the US, UK, and New Zealand. Likely reflecting the centuries-old hegemony of Whites in these countries, White is the most stable response group in Canada as well as the US, UK, and New Zealand. Multiple-race response groups are among the newest and least stable response groups. Social statuses and experiences (mixed ethnic heritage, immigration status, and exposure to own-group members) are generally more predictive of race response stability and change than economic (income level and change in income) or personal statuses (education, age). This highlights the socially-constructed nature of race group boundaries. Joining and leaving a group are often predicted by the same status/characteristic and in the same direction, hinting that the status/characteristic adds complexity to the race-related experiences of constituents.     

Proposed best practice for statisticians in the reporting and publication of pharmaceutical industry‐sponsored clinical trials

In this paper we set out what we consider to be a set of best practices for statisticians in the reporting of pharmaceutical industry‐sponsored clinical trials. We make eight recommendations covering: author responsibilities and recognition; publication timing; conflicts of interest; freedom to act; full author access to data; trial registration and independent review. These recommendations are made in the context of the prominent role played by statisticians in the design, conduct, analysis and reporting of pharmaceutical sponsored trials and the perception of the reporting of these trials in the wider community. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.