西藏人口与民族繁荣初探

本文在探讨民族繁荣的指标体系的基础上,分析了中国各少数民族人口发展与民族繁荣的状况,认为人口一教育一经济协调发展是民族繁荣的关键。并以此为研究视角,分析了建国以后西藏人口发展与民族繁荣的成就、问题和前景。     

关于老年问题研究文献的内容分析

老年问题从家庭的、个人的问题逐渐变成了社会问题,引起了全社会的高度重视.本文应用内容分析方法,分析了我国自80年代以来,老年问题研究的历史、现状、总体趋势,并提出了几点建议.     

西部开发中深化流动人口计划生育管理的若干问题探讨

西部大开发将使流动人口与日俱增,要深化流动人口计生管理,领导重视是前提,宣传教育是先导,贯彻落实是关键,部门协调是保障,管理服务是途径,综合治理是方向.     

关于完善农村老年人口养老体系的探讨

随着人口老龄化速度的加快,我国农村老年人口的养老问题备受关注.本文分析了老年养老体系的分类及构成要素,以此考察了我国农村老年人口养老体系的状况和所面临的挑战,同时提出了完善农村老年人口养老体系的建议.     

明中后期青海河湟地区藏族人口数量考察

本文着重对藏民族在明代中后期的人口数量进行历史考察 ,通过对有关历史资料的分析考证 ,进而得出了这一时期的藏族人口数据。在一定程度上填补了青海河湟地区藏族人口史的空白 ,这对全面了解明代河湟地区藏族社会经济状况有着重要意义。     

Retrospective change detection in categorical time series

The aim of this paper is to propose methods of detecting change in the coefficients of a multinomial logistic regression model for categorical time series offline. The alternatives to the null hypothesis of stationarity can be either the hypothesis that it is not true, or that there is a temporary change in the sequence. We use the efficient score vector of the partial likelihood function. This has several advantages. First, the alternative value of the parameter does not have to be estimated; hence, we have a procedure that has a simple structure with only one parameter estimation using all available observations. This is in contrast with the generalized likelihood ratio-based change point tests. The efficient score vector is used in various ways. As a vector, its components correspond to the different components of the multinomial logistic regression model’s parameter vector. Using its quadratic form a test can be defined, where the presence of a change in any or all parameters is tested for. If there are too many parameters one can test for any subset while treating the rest as nuisance parameters. Our motivating example is a DNA sequence of four categories, and our test result shows that in the published data the distribution of the four categories is not stationary.     

A fresh approach for intercession of nonresponse in multivariate longitudinal designs

The occurrence of nonresponse is very much plebeian in surveys, which troubles the analysis, and hence, an inappropriate inference is left out. To counterbalance the sour effects of the incompleteness, fresh imputation techniques have been proposed with the aid of multi-auxiliary variates for the estimation of population mean on successive waves. Properties of the proposed estimators have been elaborated, and they have been compared with the work of Priyanka et al. (2015). Detailed simulation study is carried out to substantiate the empirical and theoretical results. Several possible cases have been addressed in which nonresponse can occur.     

A stratified unrelated question randomized response model using Neyman allocation

This paper applies stratified random sampling using Neyman allocation to Mangat et al. (1992 Mangat, N.S., Singh, R., Singh, S. (1992). An improved unrelated question randomized response strategy. Cal. Stat. Assoc. Bull. 42:277–281.[Crossref] , [Google Scholar]) unrelated question randomized response (RR) strategy for both completely truthful reporting and less than completely truthful reporting. It is shown that, for the prior information given, our new model is more efficient in terms of variance (in the case of completely truthful reporting) and mean square error (in terms of less than completely truthful reporting) than Kim and Elam's (2007 Kim, J.M., Elam, M.E. (2007). A stratified unrelated question randomized response model. Stat. Papers 48:215–233.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) model. Numerical illustrations and graphs are also given in support of the present study.     

Precise large deviations for φ-mixing and UND random variables with long-tailed distributions

In this paper, we investigate the precise large deviations for sums of φ-mixing and UND random variables with long-tailed distributions. The asymptotic relations for non random sum and random sum of random variables with long-tailed distributions are obtained.