群体性突发事件中政府机会主义行为的演化博弈分析

群体性突发事件成为影响当前我国社会稳定和实现现代化平稳过渡的重要因素,但是研究主要是基于实践经验的概述和总结分析上,缺少合适的理论分析工具揭示群体性突发事件的演化规律和发展特征。本文尝试运用演化博弈理论建立了地方政府部门与社会弱势群体之间的演化博弈模型,分析了地方政府部门机会主义行为导致的群体性突发事件呈现扩大化的趋势。研究结果表明:(1)如果社会弱势群体的情绪和行动尚未激化,至多停留在集体上访或集会等体制内平和的诉求手段,机会主义的地方政府将采取高压强硬策略;此时博弈均衡结果是(妥协或平和诉求,强硬);(2)一旦弱势群体中出现少数分子采取了"打砸抢"等暴力抗争的行动,由于机会主义政府转而做出较大让步,从而诱导其他弱势成员相继采取暴力抗争行动,事态反而进一步呈现扩大趋势。因此,群体性突发事件处置过程中,地方政府的机会主义行为不仅延误事件处置的最佳时机,而且直接导致了事态的扩大化。最后结合数值分析和瓮安事件案例,剖析了地方政府部门采取的机会主义应急处置措施,以及本文理论模型的适用范围。     

我国经济转轨时期寻租的因素分析

本文从不完全信息静态博弈的角度,对寻租问题进行了博弈分析。通过分析,从理论上揭示了博弈双方的行为动机及博弈均衡结果,说明在给定的制度安排下,各个行为主体追求自身收益最大化的结果会导致寻租的概率与政策性租金的数额正相关,与寻租行为被举报或案发的可能性以及对寻租的惩罚力度负相关。并在此理论框架基础上,阐述了我国经济转轨时期寻租泛滥的制度及微观经济因素。     

碳限额与交易约束下的企业制造/再制造生产决策

目的/意义随着再制造经济效益和环境效益凸显,越来越多的企业进入再制造领域,与原制造商进行竞争或合作。考虑到碳排放约束,企业面临的生产决策更加复杂。设计/方法基于消费者对新产品和再制造产品的异质需求,构建了制造商和再制造商之间的竞争与合作博弈模型,探讨碳税对制造/再制造决策的影响;结合数值仿真,分析了竞争与合作模式下碳税对企业利润及碳排放的影响。结论/发现不同模式下,企业可根据再制造产品碳排放强度选择不同的生产策略;碳税总是会抑制新产品的生产,当再制造产品碳排放强度低于一定数值时,碳税会促进再制造产品的生产;再制造商竞争会挤兑新产品,使制造商利润减少,再制造门槛提高;当碳税不超过一定限度时,合作模式能够实现经济效益和环境效益双赢。     

协调：一种应对公共政策执行阻滞现象的理念——基于公共政策执行中中央与地方的博弈分析

现有研究所提出的消解公共政策执行阻滞现象的对策多为事后性对策，且偏于刚性方式。以博弈论为理论依据，通过建构传统策略下中央与地方的策略互动、“协调”作为中央策略下的策略互动、协调引入博弈最始端下的策略互动三个博弈模型，比较得出将协调引入公共政策的制定和执行中，将有助于公共政策执行阻滞现象的减少和消除，并在此基础上提出以协调为理念构建的对策。     

Signaling to Partially Informed Investors in the Newsvendor Model

We analyze a signaling game between the manager of a firm and an investor in the firm. The manager has private information about the firm's demand and cares about the short‐term stock price assigned by the investor. Previous research has shown that under continuous decision choices and the Intuitive Criterion refinement, the least‐cost separating equilibrium will result, in which a low‐quality firm chooses its optimal capacity and a high‐quality firm over‐invests in order to signal its quality to investors. We build on this research by showing the existence of pooling outcomes in which low‐quality firms over‐invest and high‐quality firms under‐invest so as to provide identical signals to investors. The pooling equilibrium is practically appealing because it yields a Pareto improvement compared to the least‐cost separating equilibrium. Distinguishing features of our analysis are that: (i) we allow the capacity decision to have either discrete or continuous support, and (ii) we allow beliefs to be refined based on either the Undefeated refinement or the Intuitive Criterion refinement. We find that the newsvendor model parameters impact the likelihood of a pooling outcome, and this impact changes in both sign and magnitude depending on which refinement is used.     

Competition and Coordination in a Two‐Channel Supply Chain

We study competition and coordination in a supply chain in which a single supplier both operates a direct channel and sells its product through multiple differentiated retailers. We study analytically the supply chain with symmetric retailers and find that the supplier prefers to have as many retailers as possible in the market, even if the retailers' equilibrium retail price is lower than that of the supplier, and even if the number of retailers and their cost or market advantage prevent sales through the direct channel. We find that the two‐channel supply chain may be subject to inefficiencies not present in the single‐channel supply chain. We show that several contracts known to coordinate a single‐channel supply chain do not coordinate the two‐channel supply chain; thus we propose a linear quantity discount contract and demonstrate its ability to perfectly coordinate the two‐channel supply chain with symmetric retailers. We provide some analytical results for the supply chain with asymmetric retailers and propose an efficient solution approach for finding the equilibrium. We find numerically that the supplier still benefits from having more retailers in the market and that linear quantity discount contracts can mitigate supply chain inefficiency, though they no longer achieve perfect coordination.     

共享单车用户机会主义行为的演化博弈分析

目前为止,共享单车用户的机会主义行为是共享单车能否发展的关键制约因素之一。基于此,尝试用演化博弈理论建立共享单车企业与用户间的演化博弈模型发掘用户的机会主义行为动因及利益相关者作用。研究表明:用户收益是其行为选择的决定性因素,用户机会主义行为收益大于规范行为收益是机会主义行为的产生根源;共享单车企业的激励约束可对用户行为起到调节作用,约束强度将对用户机会主义行为的程度产生负向影响。最后,针对演化博弈模型分析结果,提出了相应管理对策建议。     

售电侧改革、市场主体变化与电价红利:基于讨价还价博弈

本文通过构建“一对多”和“多对多”讨价还价博弈模型,研究了售电侧改革前后,发电商和售电公司之间关于消费者剩余分配的博弈过程。具体来说,文章从售电侧改革带来的博弈主体与博弈机制变化角度,揭示了售电侧改革对用户电价红利的影响。研究发现:售电侧放开后,电力市场交易机制由“一对多”竞价上网变为“多对多”讨价还价匹配,造成了售电侧博弈主体的议价能力下降,发电侧博弈主体相对议价能力上升。发电商群体将索取更多的消费者剩余,从而推动发电侧整体报价的上涨,挤压了售电侧的利润空间,导致售电公司被迫抬高市场电价,最终剥夺了用户的电价红利。研究揭示了售电侧改革未能带来电价下降的根本原因。     

中国法治政府的演化博弈模型构建

演化博弈论在中国法治政府研究中具有很好的适用性,可以据此构建“复制动态”的中国法治政府的演化博弈模型,证明“内生演化”的法治能够从根本上解决政府“权力悖论”。中国法治政府建设需要围绕约束规范公权力的主题,确立互动平衡精神和采取渐进主义策略,以改进转型中国的法治秩序。