考虑项目关联关系的R&D网络风险传播建模与仿真

考虑同一企业内不同项目间关联关系的情况下,基于研发项目的数量将研发网络分为不同子网络。借鉴SIS模型构建了R&D网络风险传播动力学模型,并对该模型进行了数理解析与仿真分析。结果表明：R&D网络风险传播阈值是由不同子网络的拓扑结构以及企业内不同项目间的关联程度共同决定的;考虑项目关联的研发网络风险传播阈值小于不考虑关联关系的研发网络风险传播阈值;项目间关联关系的企业个数及项目间的关联程度对风险在不同子网络上的传播速度与传播范围均具有影响。该研究成果对于提高研发网络抗风险能力具有重要意义。     

Effects of key enabling technologies for seru production on sustainable performance

Demand uncertainty, economic globalization, and environmental deterioration force factories to innovate their manufacturing systems for achieving sustainable performance. Seru production, which is the latest manufacturing mode developed in Japan, attracts broad attention from both academia and practitioners. The overwhelming majority of existing works on seru production focus on economic performance unilaterally, while neglecting the environmental and social performance. This paper investigates the effects of key enabling technologies for seru production on sustainable performance. Firstly, four key enabling technologies for seru production are identified through systematic review, and an evaluation indicator system of sustainable performance in the context of seru production is developed. Then, the hypotheses about the effects of the identified key enabling technologies for seru production on sustainable performance are proposed on the basis of previous research achievements, theoretical analysis, and practical observations. Finally, the hypotheses are tested through structural equation modeling. Except for two hypotheses which are not supported and one which is indirectly supported, all other hypotheses are verified. The research results show that the four key enabling technologies for seru production have different effects on the three dimensions of sustainable performance. The achievements of this work are of significance to improve the comprehensive understanding of seru production, as well as to develop practical methods to implement sustainable operations.     

A Blueprint for Full Collective Flood Risk Estimation: Demonstration for European River Flooding

Floods are a natural hazard evolving in space and time according to meteorological and river basin dynamics, so that a single flood event can affect different regions over the event duration. This physical mechanism introduces spatio‐temporal relationships between flood records and losses at different locations over a given time window that should be taken into account for an effective assessment of the collective flood risk. However, since extreme floods are rare events, the limited number of historical records usually prevents a reliable frequency analysis. To overcome this limit, we move from the analysis of extreme events to the modeling of continuous stream flow records preserving spatio‐temporal correlation structures of the entire process, and making a more efficient use of the information provided by continuous flow records. The approach is based on the dynamic copula framework, which allows for splitting the modeling of spatio‐temporal properties by coupling suitable time series models accounting for temporal dynamics, and multivariate distributions describing spatial dependence. The model is applied to 490 stream flow sequences recorded across 10 of the largest river basins in central and eastern Europe (Danube, Rhine, Elbe, Oder, Waser, Meuse, Rhone, Seine, Loire, and Garonne). Using available proxy data to quantify local flood exposure and vulnerability, we show that the temporal dependence exerts a key role in reproducing interannual persistence, and thus magnitude and frequency of annual proxy flood losses aggregated at a basin‐wide scale, while copulas allow the preservation of the spatial dependence of losses at weekly and annual time scales.     

大学数学基础课教学中融入数学建模思想的实践

数学建模不仅限于解决实际问题,也可以是数学发展过程中提出的理论问题。基于近年来在大学数学基础课教学中融入数学建模思想的教学实践,论述了其主要思路与做法。介绍了将数学建模思想融入数学基础课教学的两个教学案例,即微积分方法的本质和从方程组出发引入线性相关与线性无关概念。     

Models for the analysis of C-reactive protein in statin trials

Elevation in C-reactive protein (CRP) is an independent risk factor for cardiovascular disease progression and levels are reduced by treatment with statins. However, on-treatment CRP, given baseline CRP and treatment, is not normally distributed and outliers exist even when transformations are applied. Although classical non-parametric tests address some of these issues, they do not enable straightforward inclusion of covariate information. The aims of this study were to produce a model that improved efficiency and accuracy of analysis of CRP data. Estimation of treatment effects and identification of outliers were addressed using controlled trials of rosuvastatin. The robust statistical technique of MM-estimation was used to fit models to data in the presence of outliers and was compared with least-squares estimation. To develop the model, appropriate transformations of the response and baseline variables were selected. The model was used to investigate how on-treatment CRP related to baseline CRP and estimated treatment effects with rosuvastatin. On comparing least-squares and MM-estimation, MM-estimation was superior to least-squares estimation in that parameter estimates were more efficient and outliers were clearly identified. Relative reductions in CRP were higher at higher baseline CRP levels. There was also evidence of a dose-response relationship between CRP reductions from baseline and rosuvastatin. Several large outliers were identified, although there did not appear to be any relationships between the incidence of outliers and treatments. In conclusion, using robust estimation to model CRP data is superior to least-squares estimation and non-parametric tests in terms of efficiency, outlier identification and the ability to include covariate information.     

The effect of different data structures,sample sizes on model fit measures

In this study, our aim was to investigate the changes of different data structures and different sample sizes on the structural equation modeling and the influence of these factors on the model fit measures. Examining the created structural equation modeling under different data structures and sample sizes, the evaluation of model fit measures were performed with a simulation study. As a result of the simulation study, optimization and negative variance estimation problems have been encountered depending on the sample size and changing correlations. It was observed that these problems disappeared either by increasing the sample size or the correlations between the variables in factor. For upcoming studies, the choice of RMSEA and IFI model fit measures can be suggested in all sample sizes and the correlation values for data sets are ensured the multivariate normal distribution assumption.     

学前数学活动中的元认知教学行为和话语分析

元认知发展是学前儿童发展的核心之一。通过对学前教师在数学活动中的元认知教学行为和话语进行个案观察和 分析,可以发现相关教学现状不够理想,主要源于教师元认知意识及相关知识或技能不足,同时也是教学客观条件所限。     

Communicative Correlates of Satisfaction,Family Identity,and Group Salience in Multiracial/Ethnic Families

Guided by the Common Ingroup Identity Model ( S. L. Gaertner & J. F. Dovidio, 2000 ) and Communication Accommodation Theory ( C. Shepard, H. Giles, & B. A. LePoire, 2001 ), we examined the role of identity accommodation, supportive communication, and self‐disclosure in predicting relational satisfaction, shared family identity, and group salience in multiracial/ethnic families. Additionally, we analyzed the association between group salience and relational outcomes as well as the moderating roles of multiracial/ethnic identity and marital status. Individuals who have parents from different racial/ethnic groups were invited to complete questionnaires on their family experiences. Participants (N = 139) answered questions about relationships with mothers, fathers, and grandparents. The results of the multilevel modeling analyses are discussed in terms of implications for understanding multiracial/ethnic families and family functioning.     

A flexible semiparametric transformation model for survival data

I suggest an extension of the semiparametric transformation model that specifies a time-varying regression structure for the transformation, and thus allows time-varying structure in the data. Special cases include a stratified version of the usual semiparametric transformation model. The model can be thought of as specifying a first order Taylor expansion of a completely flexible baseline. Large sample properties are derived and estimators of the asymptotic variances of the regression coefficients are given. The method is illustrated by a worked example and a small simulation study. A goodness of fit procedure for testing if the regression effects lead to a satisfactory fit is also suggested.     

文化塑校,以文化人：地方本科高校文化建设刍议

地方本科高校的文化建设从目标而言就是“文化塑校”,就是要以校园特色文化塑造学校的品牌形象,全面提升办学层次。地方本科高校文化建设的核心是“以文化人”,就是要以优秀的校园文化潜移默化地影响人的思想意识与言行举止,从而实现“以德育人、以文化人”的大学功能。按照“文化塑校”的战略,凝炼大学的育人文化,实现校园文化的“以文化人”功能,需要传承校史的根的文化、弘扬校训的励志文化、彰显校友的创业文化和优化校园的环境文化。