Transnational policy entrepreneurs and the cultivation of influence: individuals,organizations and their networks

ABSTRACT

The ‘policy entrepreneur’ concept arises from the Multiple Streams’ theory of agenda setting in Policy Studies. Through conceptual stretching’, the concept is extended to global policy dynamics. Unlike ‘advocacy networks’ and ‘norm entrepreneurs’, the discussion addresses the strategies of ‘insider’ or ‘near-governmental’ non-state actors. The analysis advances the policy entrepreneur concept in three directions. First, the discussion develops the transnational dimensions of this activity through a case study of International Crisis Group. Second, rather than focusing on charismatic individuals, the discussion emphasizes the importance of organizational resources and reputations for policy entrepreneurship and access into international policy communities. Organizations maintain momentum behind policy solutions and pressures for change over the long term when individuals retire or depart for other positions. Third, the discussion outlines four distinct entrepreneur strategies and techniques that both individuals and organizations cultivate and deploy to enhance their power and persuasion in global policy processes and politics.     

矿业城市风险规避的相关政策研究

矿业城市是一类在资源开发和利用基础上发展起来的城市 ,大多数矿业城市具有资源依赖性的特点 ,并较易形成“矿竭城衰”。本文对现有研究成果进行了概括 ,并着重从三个方面探讨了矿业城市可持续发展的相关政策建议 ,包括建立矿业城市发展的早期预警系统、建立矿业城市可持续发展基金、降低矿业类产业的退出壁垒等     

听证在公共政策选择中的作用

听证是现代公共决策的重要程序,对于促进和实现公共决策科学化、民主化和法制化具有重要意义.在政策选择中引入听证程序不仅可以有效抑制和防止政府自利性,解决政策制定中的信息不对称问题,而且可以广纳民意、争取民心,增强政策选择的合法性和有效性.     

略论中共八大前后党提出的新思想、新方针

中共八大前后 ,中国共产党人努力探索适合中国国情的社会主义建设道路 ,取得了丰硕的成果。党在多方面提出了新的思想、新的方针 ,对于后来建设有中国特色社会主义理论的形成 ,有着重要的意义     

论重视和加快民办高等教育的发展

民办高等教育在十几年里飞速发展 ,取得巨大成就的同时也遇到很多的困难与问题。文章试图从宏观上论述在新的时代背景 ,尤其是即将步入WTO的国际大环境下 ,如何改变民办高等教育发展的不利因素 ,并采取有效的政策扶持 ,积极加快湖南的民办高等教育发展的问题     

公共政策的社会观基础

本文从一个新的视角──社会现的视角──审视了公共政策。因为在过去的有关公共政策的定义中，我们无法看出各个政策的重大区别，而事实上它们在是否符合人性的需求，充分考虑民意的基础并有效促进了人民的自由与福利等方面是有着重大区别的。本文将公共政策界定为是一定的权利中心在众多备选的计划、规划或可行之行动方案中作出选择并采取行动的这样一个过程。由此对选择的社会观基础进行考察，社会观影响到了人们对待集体行动的态度，进而又影响到社会秩序观。而持有不同的社会秩序观的人对公共政策有着根本不同的看法，最终得出好的公共政策的基本的制度安排。     

Type I error rates from likelihood‐based repeated measures analyses of incomplete longitudinal data

The last observation carried forward (LOCF) approach is commonly utilized to handle missing values in the primary analysis of clinical trials. However, recent evidence suggests that likelihood‐based analyses developed under the missing at random (MAR) framework are sensible alternatives. The objective of this study was to assess the Type I error rates from a likelihood‐based MAR approach – mixed‐model repeated measures (MMRM) – compared with LOCF when estimating treatment contrasts for mean change from baseline to endpoint (Δ). Data emulating neuropsychiatric clinical trials were simulated in a 4 × 4 factorial arrangement of scenarios, using four patterns of mean changes over time and four strategies for deleting data to generate subject dropout via an MAR mechanism. In data with no dropout, estimates of Δ and SE_Δ from MMRM and LOCF were identical. In data with dropout, the Type I error rates (averaged across all scenarios) for MMRM and LOCF were 5.49% and 16.76%, respectively. In 11 of the 16 scenarios, the Type I error rate from MMRM was at least 1.00% closer to the expected rate of 5.00% than the corresponding rate from LOCF. In no scenario did LOCF yield a Type I error rate that was at least 1.00% closer to the expected rate than the corresponding rate from MMRM. The average estimate of SE_Δ from MMRM was greater in data with dropout than in complete data, whereas the average estimate of SE_Δ from LOCF was smaller in data with dropout than in complete data, suggesting that standard errors from MMRM better reflected the uncertainty in the data. The results from this investigation support those from previous studies, which found that MMRM provided reasonable control of Type I error even in the presence of MNAR missingness. No universally best approach to analysis of longitudinal data exists. However, likelihood‐based MAR approaches have been shown to perform well in a variety of situations and are a sensible alternative to the LOCF approach. MNAR methods can be used within a sensitivity analysis framework to test the potential presence and impact of MNAR data, thereby assessing robustness of results from an MAR method. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

GMM tests for the Katz family of distributions

Generalized method of moments (GMM) is used to develop tests for discriminating discrete distributions among the two-parameter family of Katz distributions. Relationships involving moments are exploited to obtain identifying and over-identifying restrictions. The asymptotic relative efficiencies of tests based on GMM are analyzed using the local power approach and the approximate Bahadur efficiency. The paper also gives results of Monte Carlo experiments designed to check the validity of the theoretical findings and to shed light on the small sample properties of the proposed tests. Extensions of the results to compound Poisson alternative hypotheses are discussed.     

新时期我国零售业发展特点及政策建议

加入WTO以来,伴随我国经济的持续增长、对外开放的不断扩大和居民消费水平的提高,我国零售业在规模、结构、效益、经营和管理水平等方面都上了一个新台阶,但同时也面临来自外资零售企业的竞争压力和行业内现存的发展模式粗放、企业核心竞争力低、规范化程度低、人才短缺等问题,客观上要求必须从财政、税收、技术、人才等方面加快完善零售业发展的政策环境,为零售业的发展创造良好的条件。     

Interpreting DNA Mixtures with Related Contributors in Subdivided Populations

Abstract.  In this paper, we study the statistical interpretation of forensic DNA mixtures with related contributors in subdivided populations. Compact general formulae for match probabilities are obtained for two situations: a relative of one tested person is an unknown contributor of a DNA mixture; and two related unknowns are contributors. The effect of kinship and population structure is illustrated using a real case example.