椭圆轮廓的评定方法及其计算机模拟

给出了一个正确的数据处理方法,对已有的机械零件的椭圆轮廓的几何参数和线轮廓度误差评定理论的不足作了修正,并用计算机模拟方法对其进行了验证。     

论西部开发中区域货币金融政策的选择

西部经济发展落后的重要原因之一在于资金的短缺.要发展西部经济,缩小东西部差距,有必要制定区域(差别)货币金融政策,包括差别再贷款权政策、差别存款准备金率和贴现率政策、差别利率政策以及在西部开发中试行资本项目可兑换政策和积极培育西部资本市场,发展区域金融中心等.     

Creating a reference to a complex emergency situation using time series methods: war in Guinea-Bissau 1998-1999

Impacts of complex emergencies or relief interventions have often been evaluated by absolute mortality compared to international standardized mortality rates. A better evaluation would be to compare with local baseline mortality of the affected populations. A projection of population-based survival data into time of emergency or intervention based on information from before the emergency may create a local baseline reference. We find a log-transformed Gaussian time series model where standard errors of the estimated rates are included in the variance to have the best forecasting capacity. However, if time-at-risk during the forecasted period is known then forecasting might be done using a Poisson time series model with overdispersion. Whatever, the standard error of the estimated rates must be included in the variance of the model either in an additive form in a Gaussian model or in a multiplicative form by overdispersion in a Poisson model. Data on which the forecasting is based must be modelled carefully concerning not only calendar-time trends but also periods with excessive frequency of events (epidemics) and seasonal variations to eliminate residual autocorrelation and to make a proper reference for comparison, reflecting changes over time during the emergency. Hence, when modelled properly it is possible to predict a reference to an emergency-affected population based on local conditions. We predicted childhood mortality during the war in Guinea-Bissau 1998-1999. We found an increased mortality in the first half-year of the war and a mortality corresponding to the expected one in the last half-year of the war.     

蒙特卡罗方法及其在辐射剂量计算中的应用

概述了蒙特卡罗方法的产生与发展,阐述了蒙特卡罗方法的基本特点,最后就蒙特卡罗方法在辐射剂量计算上的应用进行了讨论。     

欧洲经货联盟运行以来的经济绩效分析

本文分析了欧洲经货联盟的政策框架,并总结出其特点。在此框架下,分析了自1999年欧元运行以来欧元区的总体经济运行状况。结论是:欧元区货币政策和财政政策协调框架是成功的,它保证了欧元区宏观经济的稳定,但没有将其转化为经济增长的动力,经济增长不容乐观;欧洲经货联盟加速了欧洲经济一体化,特别是金融一体化的进程。     

技术的社会建构：理论探索与政策含义

技术的社会建构论以建构主义为思想基石,聚焦于考察技术被建构的过程。在该理论框架中,技术被界定为社会行动,从而消解了传统的“人—机”二元论,而走向一种“可塑因—不可塑因”的新二分法;技术的结构即是围绕技术的社会行动结构,各个行动者之间的权力分布和互动关系可运用网络方法加以分析;技术发展是一个建构的演化过程,其动力源自于各类行动者的建构作用,多样性源自于各类行动者的异质性,行动者之间的协商构成了选择环境;社会建构论包含一种建构论的政策思想,强调政策干预的持续性、地方性以及政策决策民主化。     

性别偏好与政策博弈:广东省出生人口性别比时空变迁分析

广东省出生人口性别比失调现象存在着明显的规律,从时间与空间演变过程分析,认为影响广东省人口性别比的主要原因是生育文化与民众对人口政策的博弈.文章最后提出,在传统生育文化的影响下,出生人口性别比失衡与控制人口是一个两难的选择.     

Generalized additive models for location, scale and shape

Summary.  A general class of statistical models for a univariate response variable is presented which we call the generalized additive model for location, scale and shape (GAMLSS). The model assumes independent observations of the response variable y given the parameters, the explanatory variables and the values of the random effects. The distribution for the response variable in the GAMLSS can be selected from a very general family of distributions including highly skew or kurtotic continuous and discrete distributions. The systematic part of the model is expanded to allow modelling not only of the mean (or location) but also of the other parameters of the distribution of y , as parametric and/or additive nonparametric (smooth) functions of explanatory variables and/or random-effects terms. Maximum (penalized) likelihood estimation is used to fit the (non)parametric models. A Newton–Raphson or Fisher scoring algorithm is used to maximize the (penalized) likelihood. The additive terms in the model are fitted by using a backfitting algorithm. Censored data are easily incorporated into the framework. Five data sets from different fields of application are analysed to emphasize the generality of the GAMLSS class of models.     

中国货币政策和财政政策相对有效性的实证研究

在我国由计划经济向市场经济的体制转轨过程中,货币政策和财政政策已成为我国宏观经济调节的主要手段,在我国的经济发展中发挥了重要作用。但货币政策和财政政策是各自独立的政策体系,由于作用的方式和条件有较大区别,其效果也有较大不同,文章试图应用脉冲响应函数和方差分解方法,对改革开放以来我国货币政策和财政政策的效果进行实证比较研究,并得出有关结论,为我国的宏观调控政策提供理论分析和实证检验的依据。     

一种新的刑法解释学观点——以刑事政策为中心的分析

刑法解释远非一种单纯探寻刑法文本含义的学究式思维游戏,而且刑法解释的依据不应当是刑法文本.刑法解释本身是一种利益衡量的活动.在这个利益衡量游戏中,无论是刑法有权解释还是刑法适用解释,刑事政策通过各种组织化的力量起着决定性的作用.