农村居民消费融资需求及影响因素分析——以陕西省渭南市为例

基于渭南市2 636户农户问卷调查数据,从农户分化与演变视觉分析农村居民消费融资需求状况。采用概率模型分析了影响农户融资消费的主要因素是收支的＂非均衡性＂、户主个性、消费环境、城乡融合程度和存贷款利率水平高低。建议调整国民收入分配结构,完善农村基本社会保障体系,推进农村居民生产生活集聚,构建以农户需求为导向的农村金融体系。     

Stochastic Choice and Consideration Sets

We model a boundedly rational agent who suffers from limited attention. The agent considers each feasible alternative with a given (unobservable) probability, the attention parameter, and then chooses the alternative that maximizes a preference relation within the set of considered alternatives. We show that this random choice rule is the only one for which the impact of removing an alternative on the choice probability of any other alternative is asymmetric and menu independent. Both the preference relation and the attention parameters are identified uniquely by stochastic choice data.     

The behaviour towards malaria care—a multinomial logit approach

This paper attempts to estimate a disease specific demand function to study the determinants of utilisation of the services of a health care provider or a treatment regiment for malaria. The study adapts a multinomial logit framework to look at both facility characteristics and individual patient features on demand for malaria care in Ghana. The individual patient characteristics form a set of social indicators which can be used to discriminate or put into groups patients with respect to their choice of provider.The study confirms the popular use of self-medication as a first choice of action in treating malaria. The choice of malaria care providers is found to be influenced by facility price, travel time, waiting time for treatment, education, age, sex and quality of care measured in terms of drugs availability. We further find that as income increases, the odds are in favour of self-medication when people get malaria.     

河南省流动人口体育健身现状及影响因素实证分析

本文通过对河南省635名流动人口的问卷调查的统计分析发现,只有18.2%的流动人口有体育健身的习惯,通过构建二值选择模型进行实证后得出：河南省流动人口的体育健身行为受教育程度、收入水平、幸福感、长期居留意愿、居住类型、孩子数、日工作时数和参保状况的影响显著,而性别、年龄、户口性质等因素没有通过显著性检验。根据实证分析结果,提出了加强和改善流动人口体育健身状况的建议和对策。     

Measuring the Dynamic Efficiency Costs of Regulators' Preferences: Municipal Water Utilities in the Arid West

Evidence suggests that municipal water utility administrators in the western US price water significantly below its marginal cost and, in so doing, inefficiently exploit aquifer stocks and induce social surplus losses. This paper empirically identifies the objective function of those managers, measures the deadweight losses resulting from their price‐discounting decisions, and recovers the efficient water pricing policy function from counterfactual experiments. In doing so, the estimation uses a “continuous‐but‐constrained‐ control” version of a nested fixed‐point algorithm in order to measure the important intertemporal consequences of groundwater pricing decisions.     

农村留守妇女婚姻幸福感的影响因素——基于广东五市的数据分析

本文基于广东留守妇女专项调查数据,通过对数偶值模型的筛选发现夫妻分居的空间距离、丈夫打工后收入增减情况、住房质量、子女教育负担、老人健康负担以及夫妻交流互动情况对留守妇女的婚姻幸福感有显著影响。文章建议相关部门应创造条件就近建立企业让夫妻双方打工,这或许是解决由于分居而导致的家庭婚姻问题的较好途径。     

A Monte Carlo comparison of alternative methods of maximum likelihood ranking in racing sports

Applications of maximum likelihood techniques to rank competitors in sports are commonly based on the assumption that each competitor's performance is a function of a deterministic component that represents inherent ability and a stochastic component that the competitor has limited control over. Perhaps based on an appeal to the central limit theorem, the stochastic component of performance has often been assumed to be a normal random variable. However, in the context of a racing sport, this assumption is problematic because the resulting model is the computationally difficult rank-ordered probit. Although a rank-ordered logit is a viable alternative, a Thurstonian paired-comparison model could also be applied. The purpose of this analysis was to compare the performance of the rank-ordered logit and Thurstonian paired-comparison models given the objective of ranking competitors based on ability. Monte Carlo simulations were used to generate race results based on a known ranking of competitors, assign rankings from the results of the two models, and judge performance based on Spearman's rank correlation coefficient. Results suggest that in many applications, a Thurstonian model can outperform a rank-ordered logit if each competitor's performance is normally distributed.     

Central limit theorems for four new types of U-designs

Orthogonal array (OA)-based Latin hypercube designs, also called U-designs, have been popularly adopted in designing a computer experiment. Nested U-designs, sliced U-designs, strong OA-based U-designs and correlation controlled U-designs are four types of extensions of U-designs for different applications in computer experiments. Their elaborate multi-layer structure or multi-dimensional uniformity, which makes them desirable for different applications, brings difficulty in analysing the related statistical properties. In this paper, we derive central limit theorems for these four types of designs by introducing a newly constructed discrete function. It is shown that the means of the four samples generated from these four types of designs asymptotically follow the same normal distribution. These results are useful in assessing the confidence intervals of the gross mean. Two examples are presented to illustrate the closeness of the simulated density plots to the corresponding normal distributions.     

Equivalence Between Out‐of‐Sample Forecast Comparisons and Wald Statistics

We demonstrate the asymptotic equivalence between commonly used test statistics for out‐of‐sample forecasting performance and conventional Wald statistics. This equivalence greatly simplifies the computational burden of calculating recursive out‐of‐sample test statistics and their critical values. For the case with nested models, we show that the limit distribution, which has previously been expressed through stochastic integrals, has a simple representation in terms of χ²‐distributed random variables and we derive its density. We also generalize the limit theory to cover local alternatives and characterize the power properties of the test.     

Multivariate tests comparing binomial probabilities, with application to safety studies for drugs

Summary.  In magazine advertisements for new drugs, it is common to see summary tables that compare the relative frequency of several side-effects for the drug and for a placebo, based on results from placebo-controlled clinical trials. The paper summarizes ways to conduct a global test of equality of the population proportions for the drug and the vector of population proportions for the placebo. For multivariate normal responses, the Hotelling T ²-test is a well-known method for testing equality of a vector of means for two independent samples. The tests in the paper are analogues of this test for vectors of binary responses. The likelihood ratio tests can be computationally intensive or have poor asymptotic performance. Simple quadratic forms comparing the two vectors provide alternative tests. Much better performance results from using a score-type version with a null-estimated covariance matrix than from the sample covariance matrix that applies with an ordinary Wald test. For either type of statistic, asymptotic inference is often inadequate, so we also present alternative, exact permutation tests. Follow-up inferences are also discussed, and our methods are applied to safety data from a phase II clinical trial.