苏州市人口老龄化分析

基于对苏州市第四次人口普查人口年龄结构的分析,本文认为苏州市已进入人口老年型早期。文中论述了该市人口老龄化的现状、过程及趋势,剖析了过去与未来主导这一进程的不同的人口学因素,特别强调了控制人口增长对这一进程的作用。文中预测现在和今后的二十年内人口老龄化发展较缓,总抚养比较低,正届人口构成上的“黄金时期”,面临着实现经济跃升的契机。其后,人口老龄化将以空前的速度进行。抓住当前的契机也是今后从根本意义上解决好老龄人口问题所必需的。     

THE USE OF AGGREGATE DATA TO ESTIMATE GOMPERTZ‐TYPE OLD‐AGE MORTALITY IN HETEROGENEOUS POPULATIONS

We consider two related aspects of the study of old‐age mortality. One is the estimation of a parameterized hazard function from grouped data, and the other is its possible deceleration at extreme old age owing to heterogeneity described by a mixture of distinct sub‐populations. The first is treated by half of a logistic transform, which is known to be free of discretization bias at older ages, and also preserves the increasing slope of the log hazard in the Gompertz case. It is assumed that data are available in the form published by official statistical agencies, that is, as aggregated frequencies in discrete time. Local polynomial modelling and weighted least squares are applied to cause‐of‐death mortality counts. The second, related, problem is to discover what conditions are necessary for population mortality to exhibit deceleration for a mixture of Gompertz sub‐populations. The general problem remains open but, in the case of three groups, we demonstrate that heterogeneity may be such that it is possible for a population to show decelerating mortality and then return to a Gompertz‐like increase at a later age. This implies that there are situations, depending on the extent of heterogeneity, in which there is at least one age interval in which the hazard function decreases before increasing again.     

绿洲与绿洲城市：从农牧时代到工业时代新疆城市发展的特点

新疆特殊的自然地理环境,尤其是其独特的绿洲生态系统对新疆城市的影响显著.绿洲和绿洲城市成为新疆城市区别于中国其他区域城市的一个十分重要的特点.农牧业时代新疆绿洲城市的特点主要表现为两个方面,一是绿洲城市与绿洲具有一致性特点--不平衡性、分散性和封闭性;二是新疆绿洲城市数量少、规模小,长期发展缓慢.进入工业时代,新疆绿洲城市的发展出现新的特点,一是城市数量增多,城市规模扩大,初步形成绿洲城市区域体系;二是绿洲城市从封闭走向开放;三是经济城市从单一功能向综合性多功能发展,城市功能不断强化;四是绿洲城市出现可持续发展的新趋势.在国家实施"一带一路"战略的背景下,新疆绿洲城市迎来了新的发展机遇.     

形而上学与现时代

古典意义上的“形而上学”是指超验的本体论。它在２０世纪遇到了严重挑战,现代化进程及其所蕴含的市场逻辑对经验原则的推崇、逻辑实证主义及其“证实原则”对形而上学的拒斥、科学认知领域出现的纯粹客观性和绝对确定性理想的瓦解、后现代主义对所谓“元叙事”的解构等;而更深刻的危机却在于形而上学本身,即它的提问方式的知识论性质,使“在”沦为“在者”。形而上学作为人的本然的存在方式,只能被暂时遮蔽而不可能被彻底抛弃。拯救形而上学的真正希望在于清算形而上学的提问方式,海德格尔为我们提供了深刻的启示。     

社会转型期农村家庭养老功能弱化的原因解析——基于陇东南L村的调查

甘肃省东南部L村的个案表明,社会转型时期农村家庭养老功能日渐弱化,其原因在于农村人口流动的持续时问延长与范围扩大,家庭的小型化与核心家庭剧增,老人养老与子女赡养观念的分歧。为此,有必要寻求符合时代发展的新型养老模式。     

论技术进步对个人使用的负面影响

With the rapid development of information communication technology in the 20th century, the technological advancement has put a test on copyright protection. Meanwhile, it has also brought constraints on the individual use of works and the personal involvement in social and cultural lives. In the context of digital information, it is highly necessary to update the copyright protection concepts and Copyright Law so as to ensure the rights of citizens to participate in the cultural life of the community freely and to keep a balance between copyright holders and their users     

三峡文学刍议

本文对三峡文学的含义以及三峡文学的历史与现状作了初步的界定与勾勒。文章认为,关于三峡的文学和三峡区域的文学这两个有部分重合的概念共同组成了完整的三峡文学体系,以《山海经》中的神话传说为创作源头、以屈原为第一个代表作家的三峡文学硕果累累,源远流长。     

理学的当代性思考

在对传统理学的批判中,我们不应该忽视甚至抛弃其中的精萃。理学尤其是湖湘理学的经世致用、践履实干之精神依然是我们今天所急需的。在对当代社会伦理的建构中,传统理学仍有着重要的参照价值。     

关于旧证据问题的争论——评豪森的反事实策略

介绍了学界关于旧证据问题进行争论的情况.主张在豪森的反事实策略的基础上区分理论解释性证据和理论预见性证据,以应对反事实概率的可测度性问题.反事实策略并不要求在指派反事实概率上遵循理性的标准,反事实概率实质上是一种先验概率,即无条件的主观置信度,主观贝叶斯主义并不承诺其指派合理性标准.反事实概率的可测度性并不能构成对反事实策略的挑战.