上海城市人口总量控制与结构优化研究

上海的人口总量和结构一直与其独特的工业化、城镇化进程密不可分。工业化带动人口发展,人口发展推动城市发展。改革开放以来,上海正处于第四波工业化时期,人口增长较快。在人口结构上,户籍人口老龄化,而外来人口具有就近流动、城城流动、定居化特点,且教育水平逐年提高。从承载力上看,上海人口总量合理,但人口分布的不合理影响了人口结构的发展、城市社会的融合,带来了核心区人口过密、产城融合不畅的问题,以及偏好"人脑"、排斥"人手"的问题。面对人口老龄化和可能的人口逆流,上海应稳定人口总量,建设整体推进的多中心发展人口分布格局,完善户籍制度改革,破解"新二元结构",推动社会保障和公共服务均等化,同时结合政府改革,完善相关配套改革措施。     

从第三方支付发展看上海国际金融中心建设

互联网时代第三方支付的发展,揭示了企业"控制用户信息流以控制支付流,控制支付流以控制资金流;获得用户网络接入权胜过获得资本所有权,获得数据投入量胜过获得资金投入量"的新规则。大平台日益成为金融机构控制用户信息流、获得用户网络接入权的重要载体,在平台组合上加载信用有关数据流日益成为形成金融机构风险管理能力的重要生产资料。在互联网时代推进上海国际金融中心建设,既要继续重视金融机构集聚,更要注重鼓励企业赢得全国性用户网络接入权,加强平台组合,增强信用数据流。上海应依托自贸试验区推进互联网金融监管创新;牵头建立长三角征信联盟集团公司;搭建本地金融机构网聚平台。     

如何规划“职业教育城”用地面积——以广州教育城为例

在规划职业教育城建设的用地面积时,要了解城市现有职业教育的基本情况,测算未来年份有多少生源需要入读职业院校、现有和未来所需要的技工在数量和结构上的差距、未来年份职业院校应该培养出多少技工,以此推算院校应有的规模,进而确定院校的用地面积。     

受访者推动抽样：研究隐藏人口的方法与实践

“隐藏人口”的特点是规模较小且成员一般不愿暴露身份，因此很难使用常规抽样方法对其进行研究。近年来出现了一种新的研究隐藏人口的方法——受访者推动抽样（RDS)方法，该方法在传统“雪球抽样”方法的基础上，结合社会网络分析的理论和方法，使研究者有可能根据样本对总体特征做出合理的推论。本文对RDS方法的理论渊源、基本思路、主要操作步骤和原理进行了简要介绍，并探讨了在实际操作过程中应注意的问题。     

Community-Based Services and Depression from Person-Environment Fit Perspective: Focusing on Functional Impairments and Living Alone

ABSTRACT

Guided by the Person-Environment Fit perspective, we investigated the extent to which personal and environmental factors influence depression among community-dwelling adults. The data came from the special section about community-based service utilization in the 2012 Health and Retirement Study (N=1,710). Although community-based service was not significantly associated with depression after controlling for covariates, respondents with functional limitations and living alone were less likely to be depressed when using community-based services. This study demonstrates the different associations between community-based services and depression depending on personal needs. It discusses the importance of community-based services for aging-in-place policy, particularly among vulnerable populations.     

人口老龄化阶段我国农村养老保险的机制创新

人口老龄化是当前全球人口结构发展的基本趋势。面对人口老龄化带来的各种挑战,加快建立和完善我国农特养老保险制度是一项紧迫的任务。廓清我国农村养老保险制度的困境及其成因与变迁,分析其中存在的问题,是推进农村养老保险制度改革的重要内容。从我国农村人口老龄化的趋势和农村经济发展的实际出发,通过机制创新,建立农村养老保险制度创新机制,是完善农村养老保险的关键所在。     

南朝中央官学探微

纵观中国古代历史长河,南朝时期既承受着外部胡马临江而日益加剧的民族矛盾,又面临着统治集团内部渐趋激化的阶级矛盾。可谓是王朝兴替、兵蠡迭加、君如举棋。然而,政治的局部稳定,经济的相对繁荣,再加上有识君主的提倡,从教育体制方面来看,南朝较之两晋有着长足的发展。尤其在刘宋和萧梁时期,由于政权的相对稳定,中央官学呈现出多样发展的形式。不仅有国学,还创建了学馆,更有专门形式的教育。     

Does a universal non-contributory social pension make sense for rural China?

China’s pension reform during the past three decades has allowed a majority of China’s population to be covered by a pension scheme. Of particular note has been the New Rural Pension Scheme (NRPS), a voluntary programme introduced starting in 2009. One goal of our analysis is to assess that pension scheme, using a variety of sources of information including data drawn from recent (2013 and 2015) nationwide China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Surveys (CHARLS). Our analysis involves an exploration of differences between the generosity and structure of the NRPS and other pension schemes currently in place. We also explore the feasibility of reforming the current “quasi-social pension” component of the NRPS by substituting a universal non-contributory social pension pillar. In connection with our assessment of the NRPS, we note the unusually low benefit levels for rural China.     

The Center Location Improvement Problem Under the Hamming Distance

In this paper, we consider the center location improvement problems under the sum-type and bottleneck-type Hamming distance. For the sum-type problem, we show that achieving an algorithm with a worst-case ratio of O(log |V|) is NP-hard, and for the bottleneck-type problem, we present a strongly polynomial algorithm.     

Intelligent Procedures for Intra‐Day Updating of Call Center Agent Schedules

For nearly all call centers, agent schedules are typically created several days or weeks before the time that agents report to work. After schedules are created, call center resource managers receive additional information that can affect forecasted workload and resource availability. In particular, there is significant evidence, both among practitioners and in the research literature, suggesting that actual call arrival volumes early in a scheduling period (typically an individual day or week) can provide valuable information about the call arrival pattern later in the same scheduling period. In this paper, we develop a flexible and powerful heuristic framework for managers to make intra‐day resource adjustment decisions that take into account updated call forecasts, updated agent requirements, existing agent schedules, agents' schedule flexibility, and associated incremental labor costs. We demonstrate the value of this methodology in managing the trade‐off between labor costs and service levels to best meet variable rates of demand for service, using data from an actual call center.