论道德的供求关系

如同经济学的供求关系一样,社会道德水平的状况与道德的有效供给之间有着内在的关联.道德的多元化特征与社会利益的多元化需求是一致的,多元化的利益需求引发多元化的道德需求,缺乏有效的道德供给,特别是缺乏有效的主流道德供给,是道德危机产生的原因.而主流道德的有效供给取决于社会当前及未来的政治、经济走向和社会文化底蕴,以及宣传教育等等手段.     

Does a universal non-contributory social pension make sense for rural China?

China’s pension reform during the past three decades has allowed a majority of China’s population to be covered by a pension scheme. Of particular note has been the New Rural Pension Scheme (NRPS), a voluntary programme introduced starting in 2009. One goal of our analysis is to assess that pension scheme, using a variety of sources of information including data drawn from recent (2013 and 2015) nationwide China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Surveys (CHARLS). Our analysis involves an exploration of differences between the generosity and structure of the NRPS and other pension schemes currently in place. We also explore the feasibility of reforming the current “quasi-social pension” component of the NRPS by substituting a universal non-contributory social pension pillar. In connection with our assessment of the NRPS, we note the unusually low benefit levels for rural China.     

The self as the locus of morality: A comparison between Charles Taylor and George Herbert Mead's theories of the moral constitution of the self

This paper provides a critical comparison of two leading exponents of the relationship between morality and selfhood: Charles Taylor and George Herbert Mead. Specifically, it seeks to provide an assessment of the contribution each approach is able to make to a social theory of morality that has the self at its heart. Ultimately, it is argued that Taylor's phenomenological account neglects the significance of interaction and social relations in his conceptualisation of the relationship between morality and self, which undermines the capacity of his framework to explain how moral understandings and dialogic moral subjectivity develop in a world of shared meaning. I then argue that Mead's pragmatist interactionist approach overcomes many of the flaws in Taylor's framework, and offers a grounded conceptualisation of the relationship between self and morality that is able to provide a basis for a properly social account of moral subjectivity.     

Young adult poverty in historical perspective: The role of policy supports and early labor market experiences

Recent research using an improved measure of poverty finds that poverty has fallen by nearly forty percent since the 1960s in the United States. But past research has not examined whether this finding holds across detailed demographic groups who might be more or less vulnerable to poverty. This paper helps fill that gap, focusing on one such vulnerable subgroup: young adults. Using the Current Population Survey, this paper examines long-term trends in young adult poverty in comparison to other groups. In contrast to almost all other groups, young adults have seen no decrease in poverty since the 1960s. We explore potential reasons for this fact, finding that young adults lack access to benefits from government programs, and are increasingly unmarried, living alone, and disconnected from the labor market, factors that leave young adults more vulnerable than other groups to poverty. The findings have implications for how antipoverty policies might assist this vulnerable group.     

Relevance of Risk Predictions Derived from a Chronic Species Sensitivity Distribution with Cadmium to Aquatic Populations and Ecosystems

Criteria to protect aquatic life are intended to protect diverse ecosystems, but in practice are usually developed from compilations of single‐species toxicity tests using standard test organisms that were tested in laboratory environments. Species sensitivity distributions (SSDs) developed from these compilations are extrapolated to set aquatic ecosystem criteria. The protectiveness of the approach was critically reviewed with a chronic SSD for cadmium comprising 27 species within 21 genera. Within the data set, one genus had lower cadmium effects concentrations than the SSD fifth percentile‐based criterion, so in theory this genus, the amphipod Hyalella, could be lost or at least allowed some level of harm by this criteria approach. However, population matrix modeling projected only slightly increased extinction risks for a temperate Hyalella population under scenarios similar to the SSD fifth percentile criterion. The criterion value was further compared to cadmium effects concentrations in ecosystem experiments and field studies. Generally, few adverse effects were inferred from ecosystem experiments at concentrations less than the SSD fifth percentile criterion. Exceptions were behavioral impairments in simplified food web studies. No adverse effects were apparent in field studies under conditions that seldom exceeded the criterion. At concentrations greater than the SSD fifth percentile, the magnitudes of adverse effects in the field studies were roughly proportional to the laboratory‐based fraction of species with adverse effects in the SSD. Overall, the modeling and field validation comparisons of the chronic criterion values generally supported the relevance and protectiveness of the SSD fifth percentile approach with cadmium.     

基于生态学的通讯设备制造业的技术创新种群演化分析

技术创新群是指行业内技术创新主体的集合.分析技术创新种群行为主要是研究行业内技术创新种群量的变化规律,以及行业内不同技术创新种群之间的演化关系.本文应用生态学的种群理论与分析方法,探讨了研究这一问题的方法,并进行了实例验证.     

自然资源耗竭与经济可持续增长：基于四部门内生增长模型分析

本文在已有研究文献的基础上发展了一个基于水平创新的四部门内生增长模型,探讨了人口增长、自然资源耗竭、内生技术进步与长期经济增长的关系.通过对模型的社会最优均衡分析和竞争性市场均衡分析,分别求出了均衡解、均衡解存在性条件以及在人口增长和资源约束下经济可持续增长所需的条件,并证明了分权经济条件下的市场均衡解往往是非帕累托最优的,进一步分析了导致市场效率损失的主要原因及其政策涵义.     

Framing socioecological complexity: The long-term evolution of multiple dimensions of desertification risk in Italy

Desertification risk depends on the interplay of biophysical and socioeconomic drivers, among which climate change, soil depletion, landscape modifications, and biodiversity decline are key factors of change in Southern Europe. The present study introduces a diachronic analysis of desertification risk in Italy adopting a multidimensional approach based on four dimensions (ecological, economic, demographic, and administrative) assessed at three dates (1961, 1991, and 2011). These risk components were evaluated separately in Southern Italy, a formerly affected region (sensu United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification), and Northern/Central Italy, a nonaffected region in the country. All risk measures document how the divide between affected and nonaffected regions in Italy has gradually reduced. Because of local warming and rising human pressure, Northern Italy has recently displayed a level of desertification risk close to those observed in Southern Italy over the last 30 years. These results suggest a thorough revision of the national classification of risky areas, that may inform more specific mitigation and adaptation policies responding effectively to recent socioenvironmental trends and local (economic) dynamics. The intrinsic system's evolution observed at both regional and national level in Italy may be generalized to a broader European context. Our work finally documents the appropriateness of a multidimensional definition of desertification risk grounded on the joint analysis of ecological, demographic, economic, and administrative indicators. A comprehensive knowledge of socioeconomic patterns and processes of change contributes to more precise scenario modeling and design of integrated strategies mitigating desertification risk.     

A probabilistic epidemiological model for infectious diseases: The case of COVID-19 at global-level

This study has developed a probabilistic epidemiological model a few weeks after the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a pandemic (based on the little data available at that time). The aim was to assess relative risks for future scenarios and evaluate the effectiveness of different management actions for 1 year ahead. We quantified, categorized, and ranked the risks for scenarios such as business as usual, and moderate and strong mitigation. We estimated that, in the absence of interventions, COVID-19 would have a 100% risk of explosion (i.e., more than 25% infections in the world population) and 34% (2.6 billion) of the world population would have been infected until the end of simulation. We analyzed the suitability of model scenarios by comparing actual values against estimated values for the first 6 weeks of the simulation period. The results proved to be more suitable with a business-as-usual scenario in Asia and moderate mitigation in the other continents. If everything went on like this, we would have 55% risk of explosion and 22% (1.7 billion) of the world population would have been infected. Strong mitigation actions in all continents could reduce these numbers to, 7% and 3% (223 million), respectively. Although the results were based on the data available in March 2020, both the model and probabilistic approach proved to be practicable and could be a basis for risk assessment in future pandemic episodes with unknown virus, especially in the early stages, when data and literature are scarce.     

闺阁中之羁人志士 妾媵中之孽子孤臣——试论明清文人对明末“冯小青事”的道德解读

从中国古代的传统道德、家礼家范入手,分析发生在明末至清代的"冯小青现象",并进一步证明,通过文人对其人及其生存环境的解读,冯小青从一个现实中的才女演变成为那一时代的道德偶像。文人对"冯小青事"的道德解读最终实现了阅读视野的突破,冯小青这一人物形象既有着历史的厚重感又充满了时代的因素。