SMALL‐AREA ESTIMATION OF POVERTY: THE AID INDUSTRY STANDARD AND ITS ALTERNATIVES

Small‐area estimation of poverty‐related variables is an increasingly important analytical tool in targeting the delivery of food and other aid in developing countries. We compare two methods for the estimation of small‐area means and proportions, namely empirical Bayes and composite estimation, with what has become the international standard method of Elbers, Lanjouw & Lanjouw (2003) . In addition to differences among the sets of estimates and associated estimated standard errors, we discuss data requirements, design and model selection issues and computational complexity. The Elbers, Lanjouw and Lanjouw (ELL) method is found to produce broadly similar estimates but to have much smaller estimated standard errors than the other methods. The question of whether these standard error estimates are downwardly biased is discussed. Although the question cannot yet be answered in full, as a precautionary measure it is strongly recommended that the ELL model be modified to include a small‐area‐level error component in addition to the cluster‐level and household‐level errors it currently contains. This recommendation is particularly important because the allocation of billions of dollars of aid funding is being determined and monitored via ELL. Under current aid distribution mechanisms, any downward bias in estimates of standard error may lead to allocations that are suboptimal because distinctions are made between estimated poverty levels at the small‐area level that are not significantly different statistically.     

区域性旅游业内部结构优化的综合评价研究——基于张家界数据的实证

以旅游产业结构优化理论为基础,用加权求和与阀值法等研究方法,结合旅游产业内部结构演化的特点,构建区域性旅游业内部结构优化评价指标体系。利用张家界统计年鉴相关数据就其旅游业内部结构优化的合理化与高度化进行了详细的实证研究,分析验证指标体系及其模型的适用性。对张家界旅游业内部结构优化的综合评价表明,张家界旅游业内部结构在演化过程中非优化的矛盾十分突出,产业结构呈低度化,是典型的“粗放型”发展,旅游产业内部结构高度化“时滞化”的特征明显。     

区域金融生态评估指标体系构建与实证检验——基于西部地区金融生态水平考察

以金融生态视角研究西部地区经济发展状况是一个新兴研究领域,其研究目的是探索区域金融生态评估体系和考察西部地区金融生态水平的状况,依据区域金融生态作用机制的原理,构建和修正区域金融生态水平评估指标体系,并运用计量模型和面板数据进行实证检验,完善区域金融生态的综合评价机制。     

在科学发展观视野下构建社会评价指标体系

社会评价指标是衡量和评价社会发展状况和趋势的一种工具。在对国内外不同时期社会评价指标体系进行分析的基础上,在科学发展观视野和架构下,提出了社会评价指标体系的阶段性和发展性的原理,提出了适应中国现阶段和未来一个时期社会发展评价需要的新的社会评价指标体系。     

A Sociodemographic Risk Index

In this paper, we conceptualize and develop an index of sociodemographic risk that we hypothesize will be an improvement over the standard poverty measure as a measure of risk for children’s development. The poverty line is widely used in government statistics and in research but is also widely acknowledged to have multiple shortcomings. Using recent data from the National Survey of America’s Families, we develop and examine a Sociodemographic Risk Index for two potential purposes: (a) to serve as a summary indicator of children’s environments that affect their well-being, and (b) to serve as a variable that can be used to identify at-risk subgroups of children whose well-being should be examined separately in indicator reports. Based on substantial research on children’s development, we chose five variables for the index: family income, family structure, parent education, family size, and home ownership. An additive sociodemographic risk index using these variables is strongly associated with multiple measures of child well-being in both bivariate and multivariate analyses. Hence, it serves as a good marker of risk for children and therefore as an indicator that could be monitored over time, across groups, and across places, as well as a variable that could be used to identify subgroups of at-risk children whose well-being should be monitored. However, analyses do not indicate that it performs better at identifying at-risk children than the current poverty measure. Therefore, we recommend the Sociodemographic Risk Index primarily as an additional summary indicator to be monitored, rather than as a replacement for the poverty measure.     

Connecting Knowledge and Policy: The Promise of Community Indicators in the United States

There are over 200 identified community based indicator projects in the United States. This paper reviews the factors that contribute to the success and failure of community indicator projects and discusses the types of desired outcomes that communities are trying to achieve. Both organizational and political factors contributing to the success of community indicators projects are discussed. Appendices include information on many of the community indicator projects in the United States. Advice for communities seeking to launch an indicator project are outlined.     

Subjective Well-Being, Societal Condition and Social Policy – The Case Study of a Rich Chinese Society

The article looks at whether or not social policy and other societal-condition variables contribute to the subjective well-being of life satisfaction. It firstly argues that social policy needs to pay more attention to the study of subjective well-being. Then, it reviews the literature and finds that people in rich societies generally have higher levels of life satisfaction. But the findings of a social survey on the level of and variance in life satisfaction in a rich Chinese society reveal the contrary. The empirical data reflects a life satisfaction pattern along strong income and class lines. It also confirms that social policy and other societal-condition variables have different degrees of impact on life satisfaction. At last, implications of the findings for social policy are discussed.     

Development Challenges of the "New Europe"

European nations are undergoing rapid and fundamental changesin response to social, political and economic eventsthat are occurring both within and outside the region.These changes are far-reaching in scope and,ultimately, are expected to result in a redefinitionof ``Europe' and what it means to be ``European.'Using the author's extensively pre-tested Index ofSocial Progress (ISP), the research reported in thispaper: 1) identifies the major changes in socialdevelopment that have taken place in 36 European nationssince 1970; 2) contrasts Europe's recent socialdevelopment trends with those of other major world regions(including Asia, Africa, Latin and North America, andOceania); 3) using aggregate scores on the WeightedIndex of Social Progress (WISP), identifies Europe's``social leaders' (SLs), ``middle performing countries'(MPCs), identifies Europe's ``social leaders' (SLs),``middle performing countries' (MPCs), and ``sociallyleast developing countries' (SLDCs); 4) identifies themajor development challenges confronting Europe at theoutset of a new decade; and 5) provides baseline dataagainst which future developments in the region maybe assessed.     

体现科学发展观的生活质量指标体系：基于澳门的考察

科学发展观是指导发展的科学理论,其核心是提高人民的生活质量。本文以科学发展观为指导,从宏观层面构建了澳门居民客观生活质量指标体系。该体系涵盖了经济、社会、环境三大系统,包括物质福利、教育、健康等11个与生活质量直接相关的领域,反映了澳门经济、社会、环境的整体发展面貌和居民生活质量状况,体现了全面、协调、可持续发展的科学发展观内涵。     

Development challenges and opportunities confronting economies in transition

“Economies in Transition” (hereafter EIT or EITs) are countries in the process of shifting from “command” to “more open”, liberalized, free market economic systems. In addition to achieving major structural adjustments to their economies, the transformational process requires the introduction of a high degree of transparency in both the economic and political spheres of society. The transfer of state assets to private ownership is one part of the process as well, as is the creation or opening of “political space” that permits the emergence of private enterprise, multiparty political systems, and the introduction of a broad range of non-governmental organizations that carry out missions and functions which people themselves prefer to perform. Thus, the process of economic transformation requires a major socio-political-economic paradigm shift...one that places people and their needs at the center of the transformational process. The process is extremely difficult to achieve and is fraught with many dangers for countries that enter into it without substantial guidance from more economically advanced countries. This paper reports on the social development successes and failures of 31 economies in transition over the 15-year period 1990–2005. Included in the analysis are EITs located in East and South East Asia (N = 5), Central and Eastern Europe (N = 10), all 12 members of the Commonwealth of Independent States including the Russian Federation (N = 12), Turkey (N = 1), and the three Baltic States of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania (N = 3). Using the author’s extensively pre-tested Weighted Index of Social Progress (WISP), the paper reports data at three levels of analysis: (1) WISP performances for all 31 EITs-as-a-group; (2) sub-regional performances on the WISP and its component sub-indexes for each of the six EIT sub-regions included in the analysis; and (3) country-specific performances on the WISP for each of the 31 countries included in the analysis. An earlier version of this paper was presented at the 2006 International Symposium and Lecture Series on Social Policy sponsored by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and held on the campus of Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China, 24–27 August, 2006.