基于非财务指标的企业财务危机模糊预警模型研究

针对企业财务危机预警难以做到真实、准确的问题,提出了基于非财务指标的企业财务危机模糊预警模型。应用多级模糊综合评判法对财务风险因素进行定量化评价,对定性的非财务指标采用模糊统计的方法,从定量与定性相结合的角度出发,构建了财务危机的模糊预警模型,并对其进行了检验,以期使预警结果更加真实、准确。     

技术指标能够预测商品期货价格吗? 来自中国的证据

基于移动价格平均、动量和移动交易量平均三类技术指标,研究了其对中国大宗商品期货价格的预测效果,并以基于宏观变量的预测为基准比较分析了其预测能力.主要结论如下,第一,技术指标能够在样本内和样本外检验中有效预测我国大宗商品期货价格,其预测效果显著超过已有文献中广泛使用的宏观经济指标.第二,对于不同的模型设定和数据频率,技术指标预测效果表现稳健.第三,从资产配置角度出发,基于技术指标的预测具有显著经济意义,能够显著提高资产配置效率,获得超额收益.相关结果能够为大宗商品投资及风险管理提供经验和策略支持.     

A Factor Analysis Approach Toward Reconciling Community Vulnerability and Resilience Indices for Natural Hazards

The concepts of vulnerability and resilience help explain why natural hazards of similar type and magnitude can have disparate impacts on varying communities. Numerous frameworks have been developed to measure these concepts, but a clear and consistent method of comparing them is lacking. Here, we develop a data-driven approach for reconciling a popular class of frameworks known as vulnerability and resilience indices. In particular, we conduct an exploratory factor analysis on a comprehensive set of variables from established indices measuring community vulnerability and resilience at the U.S. county level. The resulting factor model suggests that 50 of the 130 analyzed variables effectively load onto five dimensions: wealth, poverty, agencies per capita, elderly populations, and non–English-speaking populations. Additionally, the factor structure establishes an objective and intuitive schema for relating the constituent elements of vulnerability and resilience indices, in turn affording researchers a flexible yet robust baseline for validating and expanding upon current approaches.     

Evaluation and Research on Total Factor Productivity of China's Energy and Environment——Based on Double Frontiers Network DEA-Malmquist Index Model of Undesired Indicators

According to the actual situation of economic development, the economic system is divided into the energy utilization subsystem and the environmental governance subsystem. This paper builds up a model based on the double frontiers network DEA-Malmquist index of undesired indicators and evaluates the changes of total factor productivity of energy and environment of 29 provinces, cities and autonomous regions in China during the period of 2011-2016. The evaluation results show that, except for the environmental governance subsystem, the total factor productivities of the energy utilization subsystem and the whole economic system are in a state of negative growth, and have larger space to promote. From the perspective of the division of the three major regions, there are only the growth in the eastern regions for total factor productivity of the energy utilization subsystem, the environmental governance subsystem and the whole system.     

我国民宿发展与管理界定研究

近年来,随着人们生活水平的提高,旅游住宿的要求也由标准化饭店转向了更有文化特色、更具个性化的客栈、民宿、主题酒店等细分住宿业态.我国住宿业要求取得特许行业许可证、消防证等才可营业,大部分民宿出于规模、房屋建筑结构等限制,无法达到住宿业相关法规要求,长期处于无证经营状态,因此,发展民宿的当务之急是必须对民宿进行明确界定,从而制定相应的标准将其纳入规范管理之中,更迫切的是需要统一民宿的界定标准.基于目前我国民宿发展的现状和问题以及政府的管制现状,可借鉴民宿管理的国际经验制定相应的管理制度和界定标准,即民宿界定的规模指标应该采用分层准入方式;城市短租应纳入民宿管理中,但在物业、税收等方面需要制定不同于乡村民宿的规定;同时应完善相关税收政策,为其他住宿业态提供公平的竞争环境.     

Countertransference and Zebras: Forensic Obfuscation

ABSTRACT

Responding to Daniel Pickar's article entitled “Counter-transference Bias in the Child Custody Evaluator” (this issue), the authors opine that attaching new labels to familiar dynamics fails to contribute to an understanding of interpersonal dynamics with which all participants in the custody evaluation process are already familiar. The position is advanced that, in examining the reports and testimony of evaluators, biases are only relevant when they are manifested in identifiable behavior. Such behaviors include the application by the evaluator of different standards in examining and commenting on the actions of the two parents; the use of insulting terminology in describing the non-favored parent; the use of glowing terminology in describing the favored parent; assignment of minimal importance to possible parenting deficiencies in the favored parent; the assignment of much importance to reported flaws in the non-favored parent; an apparent unquestioning acceptance of the favored parent's perspective; and an apparent rejection of the non-favored parent's perspective.     

Trust and Ethnic Tolerance in the Face of Social Change

The primary goals of this article are to examine conceptual approaches to the study of trust, summarize the tools that can be used in such studies, and use empirical data to elucidate the concept of a “culture of trust.” It also discusses certain problems involved in the empirical study of generalized trust and concludes that ethnic tolerance is one element of a culture of trust. The article presents the results of a 2014 sociological study of Muscovites that was carried out using formalized interviews. This study examined the attitude of trust and subjective bases of trust and mistrust that have developed within Moscow society. A three-stage random territorial probability sampling was used, distributed across administrative districts proportional to their population sizes. The 800-respondent sample was representative in terms of sex and age. Using a simple 4-point scale, our study found that Moscow’s population is strongly polarized in terms of trust—47.6 percent are inclined to be trusting while 46.5 percent are not. Trust networks in Moscow are primarily built around close family and friends. There is a clear lack of basic trust. The study’s results suggest that generalized trust and ethnic tolerance are interrelated. What links these processes are the collaborative relationships that form based on ties of friendship and neighborliness.     

Social innovation indicators

This article provides the results of the Regional Social Innovation Index (RESINDEX), a conceptual and empirical model that explores indicators of social innovation at organizational and regional level. The RESINDEX model links absorptive capacity of knowledge and social innovation in four types of key regional agents: profit and non-profit organizations, universities, and technological centres. The pilot application of the RESINDEX model held in the Basque Country (Spain) during the year 2013. Within the framework of this study 282 regional organizations were surveyed. The article contributes to the conceptual and empirical discussion on indicators in social innovation.     

基于可持续发展思想的矿井技改方案评价

针对煤炭这一不可再生的初级能源产品的特点 ,指出了传统的煤矿技改方案评价标准的不足 ,提出了基于可持续发展思想的矿井技改方案评价指标体系     

Formative Indicators and Effects of a Causal Model for Household Human Capital with Application

Dagum and Slottje (2000) estimated household human capital (HC) as a latent variable (LV) and proposed its monetary estimation by means of an actuarial approach. This paper introduces an improved method for the estimation of household HC as an LV by means of formative and reflective indicators in agreement with the accepted economic definition of HC. The monetary value of HC is used in a recursive causal model to obtain short- and long-term multipliers that measure the direct and total effects of the variables that determine household HC. The new method is applied to estimate US household HC for year 2004.