转型时期我国农民的理智抉择

社会转型,农民主体意识觉醒,价值取向市场化、现代化。非农就业成为农民的理智抉择。抉择具有合理性和必然性,既符合我国国情,又符合国家的发展战略,是现代化发展的必由之路。     

Assessing goodness-of-fit of categorical regression models based on case-control data

Demonstrated equivalence between a categorical regression model based on case‐control data and an I‐sample semiparametric selection bias model leads to a new goodness‐of‐fit test. The proposed test statistic is an extension of an existing Kolmogorov–Smirnov‐type statistic and is the weighted average of the absolute differences between two estimated distribution functions in each response category. The paper establishes an optimal property for the maximum semiparametric likelihood estimator of the parameters in the I‐sample semiparametric selection bias model. It also presents a bootstrap procedure, some simulation results and an analysis of two real datasets.     

中国古代城市文学研究的文学史意义

研究中国古代城市文学的文学史意义在于，从空间视角重新认识和研究古代文学，充分发掘和利用长期以来被忽略的城市文学资源。有助于建构起时空并置、更加完整和系统的中国古代文学史。此外，研究中国古代城市文学还可以为当代文学史研究提供一个广阔的历史视野与意蕴深厚的历史文本。     

Adaptive tests of regression functions via multiscale generalized likelihood ratios

Many applications of nonparametric tests based on curve estimation involve selecting a smoothing parameter. The author proposes an adaptive test that combines several generalized likelihood ratio tests in order to get power performance nearly equal to whichever of the component tests is best. She derives the asymptotic joint distribution of the component tests and that of the proposed test under the null hypothesis. She also develops a simple method of selecting the smoothing parameters for the proposed test and presents two approximate methods for obtaining its P‐value. Finally, she evaluates the proposed test through simulations and illustrates its application to a set of real data.     

梯玛“求子”仪式中的符号化空间——以剪纸“天门”为中心

梯玛仪式“玩菩萨”中的剪纸、绘画使用了大量的形象性符号,包括剪纸天门、天梯、天钱、纸人纸伞、穿衣儿粑粑、神案等,考察其在堂中各自的位置、数量、用色及形式,从艺术形态学和美术人类学的角度出发,结合梯玛自己的解释和在仪式中的具体作用,同时与其他民族民间同类剪纸做比较,对“玩菩萨”仪式中的图像符号做深入的分析。并以“求子”一节为例,分析符号组成空间,符号在特定的空间情境中产生意义,阐明民间神圣符号在组成仪式空间情境中的作用,研究剪纸、绘画等符号在空间情境中意义的转换,体现出民间艺术、民间思维中象征性的特点。     

Herd behavior and the quality of opinions

This paper analyzes a decentralized decision model by adding some inertia in the social leaning process. Before making a decision, an agent can observe the group opinion in a society. Social learning can result in a variety of equilibrium behavioral patterns. For insufficient ranges of quality (precision) of opinions, the chosen stationary state is unique and globally accessible, in which all agents adopt the superior action. Sufficient quality of opinions gives rise to multiple stationary states. One of them will be characterized by inefficient herding. The confidence in the majority opinion then has serious welfare consequences.     

论我国外贸代理制度的完善

从20世纪80年代起施行的我国外贸代理制度,在制度设计和实践操作上都存在着较大缺陷。本文以WTO对我国外贸代理制度的要求为指针,认为应采取转变对外贸代理制度的认识、整合外贸代理立法、改革我国外贸经营权制度等措施,完善我国的外贸代理制度,使其与国际商事规则接轨。     

市场调查:图书选题计划制定的关键

加强市场调查对提高图书选题策划的预测准确性作用极大。市场导向和市场反馈,将直接有助于出版机构了解市场的饱和点、空白点、热点、增长点和萎缩点,正确判断图书市场的现状和未来走势,进而在制订选题计划时更为合理地进行因势利导和科学决策。     

COMPARISONS AND SELECTION OF TWO-PARAMETER EXPONENTIAL POPULATIONS

For two-parameter exponential populations with the same scale parameter (known or unknown) comparisons are made between the location parameters. This is done by constructing confidence intervals, which can then be used for selection procedures. Comparisons are made with a control, and with the (unknown) “best” or “worst” population. Emphasis is laid on finding approximations to the confidence so that calculations are simple and tables are not necessary. (Since we consider unequal sample sizes, tables for exact values would need to be extensive.)     

Local spatial data infrastructure, Trujillo-Peru

The development of a Municipal Information System, or currently better known as a local spatial data infrastructure, is considered complex due to the required inter-institutional relationships. In many developing countries Geographical Information Systems (GISs) are introduced but the benefits are modest as no changes take place in technical and organisational structure of organisations. Digital databases and computer-aided design (CAD) maps are mushrooming in great variety within different private and public institutions, municipal organisations and even within single departments and with structures similar to the paper period and thus operating on a stand-alone basis.Many national mapping agencies are not able to provide large-scale digital urban base maps, while the absence or low quality of cadastres makes those basic core data sets unavailable or inaccessible. The result is that duplication and incompatible data are frequently observed and also donor-driven stand-alone projects have a limited impact through the lack of institutional embedding and are not able to mature from the project to the institutional level. However, a positive sign is that there is an increasing awareness among data producers and consumers that investments in the development of digital data sets should be combined to reduce costs and increase benefits from especially GIS, and information and communication technology (ICT) in general.Within Trujillo a long-term vision was developed to make full use of ICT and GIS to modernise all operations of the Municipality to increase the efficiency and effectiveness of its tasks. However, large investments are not feasible due to the very limited municipal budgets. To guarantee the support of the municipal council, short-term results are required. This paper describes three ‘products’ as part of the vision to develop through a step-by-step approach a local spatial data infrastructure for Trujillo.The three, rather different, products are:

1. fiscal cadastre, to increase municipal revenues through property taxation;

2. an ‘environmental atlas’ based on a compatible spatial and attribute data sets from a variety of organisations; and

3. a municipal website with interactive GIS and meta data information.

The paper concludes with some comments on the institutional and political requirements for the successful development of a local spatial data infrastructure and stresses that such an infrastructure is not a product but an incremental development process that will progress only in case such a process is simple, cost effective, user-friendly, and flexible with clear products.Political interest and institutional stability and genuine interest for inter-institutional cooperation will add much to the success of this process.