基于状态空间模型的宏观经济因素对股市流动性的建模分析

证券市场的流动性是评估一国证券市场是否健康运转的重要指标。关于流动性的各种学术研究也是金融市场微观结构理论中的热点问题。本文主要考察宏观经济因素对时变的股市流动性的影响，选取度量股票流动性的指标以及宏观经济变量，针对行业分类的面板数据提出三个动态因子模型，并引入跨行业的能够捕捉风险聚集现象的潜在因子进行建模，利用状态空间模型与Kalman滤波进行分析和样本外流动性风险预测。我们提出的新颖的带回归效应的高斯面板数据时间序列模型，结合了用主成分的方法从大量宏观经济协变量中提取出来的因子，用来分析和预测股市的流动性风险，具有较强的信息挖掘作用。在对上证A 股的实证研究中，我们发现动态的潜在因子的引入对于防止流动性估计的偏差是需要的。     

Clinical Capital and the Risk of Maternal Labor and Delivery Complications: Hospital Scheduling,Timing, and Cohort Turnover Effects

The establishment of interventions to maximize maternal health requires the identification of modifiable risk factors. Toward the identification of modifiable hospital‐based factors, we analyze over 2 million births from 2005 to 2010 in Texas, employing a series of quasi‐experimental tests involving hourly, daily, and monthly circumstances where medical service quality (or clinical capital) is known to vary exogenously. Motivated by a clinician's choice model, we investigate whether maternal delivery complications (1) vary by work shift, (2) increase by the hours worked within shifts, (3) increase on weekends and holidays when hospitals are typically understaffed, and (4) are higher in July when a new cohort of residents enter teaching hospitals. We find consistent evidence of a sizable statistical relationship between deliveries during nonstandard schedules and negative patient outcomes. Delivery complications are higher during night shifts (OR = 1.21, 95% CI: 1.18–1.25), and on weekends (OR = 1.09, 95% CI: 1.04–1.14) and holidays (OR = 1.29, 95% CI: 1.04–1.60), when hospitals are understaffed and less experienced doctors are more likely to work. Within shifts, we show deterioration of occupational performance per additional hour worked (OR = 1.02, 95% CI: 1.01–1.02). We observe substantial additional risk at teaching hospitals in July (OR = 1.28, 95% CI: 1.14–1.43), reflecting a cohort‐turnover effect. All results are robust to the exclusion of noninduced births and intuitively falsified with analyses of chromosomal disorders. Results from our multiple‐test strategy indicate that hospitals can meaningfully attenuate harm to maternal health through strategic scheduling of staff.     

Engineering network operations for international manufacturing: strategic orientations,influencing factors and improvement paths

Abstract

Engineering operations contribute to international manufacturing networks (IMN) capabilities and thus improving their performance in an international context. The literature has recognized engineering networks (EN) with different strategic orientations (e.g. efficiency, innovation and flexibility); explored IMN capabilities in four key areas (i.e. accessibility, thriftiness ability, manufacturing mobility and learning ability); but provided diverse views on their possible connections. Especially, the received wisdom offers less guidance on how EN may enhance IMN capabilities. At the same time, the challenges of making effective decisions at the EN-IMN interface are compounded by a large number of influencing factors that are interrelated in a very complex manner. To cope with these challenges, the article reveals four ways that EN may contribute to IMN capabilities, identifies 15?key influencing factors and suggests optimal paths to enhance IMN capabilities based on the interpretive structure model (ISM) method.     

Critical success factors of medical technology supply chains

This paper investigates Critical Success Factors that affect the performance of organizations involved in Medical Technology supply chains (MTSCs) in Germany. The Medical Technology sector in Germany is considered an innovative, fast-growing and promising industry, being third behind the USA and China as the biggest market in the world, worth 29.9 billion euros in 2017. MTSCs in this country are under pressure from health service funding and cheaper imports, primarily from China. Consequently, supply chain success is of high importance and OEM operational improvements are critical. This exploratory study involved a multiple case study approach where 15 OEMs within German MTSCs were investigated. Following within-case and cross-case analysis, empirical results led to the development of testable propositions, which constitute a foundation for further research investigation. The findings show that there are six, prioritized Critical Success Factors for MTSCs that include sales and operations planning, product development process and quality and compliance. These findings challenge existing assumptions about Critical Success Factors within MTSCs, providing practitioners with strategies showing that re-prioritized CSFs should improve the operational performance of OEMs.     

高端装备制造业技术创新资源配置效率及影响因素研究——基于两阶段StoNED和Tobit模型的实证分析

新常态下,高端装备制造业在推动国民经济稳定增长、加快传统工业转型升级、提升产业链核心竞争力的过程中,先导性和战略性作用日益凸出,但其技术创新资源配置的合理性和有效性却成为产业持续发展的主要瓶颈。本文从投入产出角度出发,基于价值链理论,将技术创新活动分为技术研发和技术转化两个阶段,并构建两阶段StoNED模型,采用2011-2014年的行业面板数据作为样本数据,对高端装备制造业技术创新资源配置效率进行测度和比较;以产业组织为视角,利用Tobit模型分析影响效率的关键因素。实证研究表明,我国高端装备制造业技术创新资源配置的整体和阶段效率在子行业间存在不同程度的波动和差异,技术研发阶段效率偏低制约着整体效率的最优化;甄别影响因素发现,企业规模对技术研发阶段效率具有负向作用,对整体和技术转化阶段效率具有正向作用;市场垄断不利于整体和技术转化阶段效率的提升;政府支持对整体和两阶段效率均具有负面影响。在此基础上,进一步提出应对产业技术创新资源配置现状的对策建议。     

Resilience Analysis of Countries under Disasters Based on Multisource Data

Disasters occur almost daily in the world. Because emergencies frequently have no precedent, are highly uncertain, and can be very destructive, improving a country's resilience is an efficient way to reduce risk. In this article, we collected more than 20,000 historical data points from disasters from 207 countries to enable us to calculate the severity of disasters and the danger they pose to countries. In addition, 6 primary indices (disaster, personal attribute, infrastructure, economics, education, and occupation) including 38 secondary influencing factors are considered in analyzing the resilience of countries. Using these data, we obtained the danger, expected number of deaths, and resilience of all 207 countries. We found that a country covering a large area is more likely to have a low resilience score. Through sensitivity analysis of all secondary indices, we found that population density, frequency of disasters, and GDP are the three most critical factors affecting resilience. Based on broad‐spectrum resilience analysis of the different continents, Oceania and South America have the highest resilience, while Asia has the lowest. Over the past 50 years, the resilience of many countries has been improved sharply, especially in developing countries. Based on our results, we analyze the comprehensive resilience and provide some optimal suggestions to efficiently improve resilience.     

基于冲动性购买诱发因素的消费者冲动性购买之购后满意度研究

选择以冲动性购买的购后满意度这一"购后行为"作为研究视角,并从冲动性购买诱发因素入手,利用实验方法分析了冲动性购买诱发因素与冲动性购买购后满意度之间的关系。研究表明,价格促销刺激有无(外部环境刺激因素)、时间压力高低(购买情境刺激因素)、冲动性购买倾向高低(消费者个人特质)均对冲动性购买之购后满意度具有显著影响,而且冲动性购买倾向高低对这种影响具有一定的干扰效果。     

国外工作经验研究述评

归纳了国外理论界关于工作经验的内涵、测量模型、工作经验与工作绩效关系以及工作经验的影响因素等方面有代表性的观点。研究表明,工作经验的内涵尚需予以明确界定;工作经验的测量未来研究的重点是着眼于考虑多种因素的"整合模式";在工作经验对工作绩效影响的实证分析中应注意中介变量的可能影响;工作经验的影响因素并不是单一的,而是个体因素和情景因素综合作用的结果。最后,提出了工作经验在中国未来的研究方向及应注意的问题。     

家庭随迁流动人口住房选择及其影响因素分析——以上海市为例

本研究在对上海各区县流动人口进行问卷调查的基础上,描述了家庭随迁流动人口的住房性质、居住社区类型和居住区位等多方面的基本特征,综合探讨了个人及家庭因素、社会及制度因素和社会融合因素对流动人口住房选择的影响机制。分析表明：上海流动人口家庭随迁特征明显;流动人口仍以租赁住房为主,主要聚居在远郊、近郊的农村社区和城中村;家庭随迁流动人口在住房拥有率方面凸显优势;由流动人口自身素质所形成的社会分层对住房选择影响显著;制度性因素和社会融合因素对住房选择也具有显著性影响。针对分析结论,本文在政府、社会以及个人等多方面提出解决流动人口住房问题的对策建议。     

东北秧歌生成的推进因素探析

东北秧歌受胎于萨满祭祀歌舞,伴随着经济社会的不断发展,在形成过程中不断吸收其他各种类型文化艺术的精神内核、形式与内容,最后完型并成熟。