Uncertainty Analysis for Computer Model Projections of Hurricane Losses

Projecting losses associated with hurricanes is a complex and difficult undertaking that is wrought with uncertainties. Hurricane Charley, which struck southwest Florida on August 13, 2004, illustrates the uncertainty of forecasting damages from these storms. Due to shifts in the track and the rapid intensification of the storm, real-time estimates grew from 2 to 3 billion dollars in losses late on August 12 to a peak of 50 billion dollars for a brief time as the storm appeared to be headed for the Tampa Bay area. The storm hit the resort areas of Charlotte Harbor near Punta Gorda and then went on to Orlando in the central part of the state, with early poststorm estimates converging on a damage estimate in the 28 to 31 billion dollars range. Comparable damage to central Florida had not been seen since Hurricane Donna in 1960. The Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology (FCHLPM) has recognized the role of computer models in projecting losses from hurricanes. The FCHLPM established a professional team to perform onsite (confidential) audits of computer models developed by several different companies in the United States that seek to have their models approved for use in insurance rate filings in Florida. The team's members represent the fields of actuarial science, computer science, meteorology, statistics, and wind and structural engineering. An important part of the auditing process requires uncertainty and sensitivity analyses to be performed with the applicant's proprietary model. To influence future such analyses, an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis has been completed for loss projections arising from use of a Holland B parameter hurricane wind field model. Uncertainty analysis quantifies the expected percentage reduction in the uncertainty of wind speed and loss that is attributable to each of the input variables.     

Social Stratification and the Division of Household Labor in Japan: The Effect of Wives' Work on the Division of Labor among Dual-earner Families

Abstract:  This article explores the relationship between social stratification and the division of household labor by examining how the contribution to housework by husbands in dual-earner families varies across the Japanese social stratification structure. First, I review previous studies concerning the determinants of husbands' participation in housework and construct four hypotheses regarding the relative resources explanation, the time constraints explanation, the ideology/sex role explanation, and the alternative manpower explanation. Second, I examine the empirical support for these hypotheses in dual-earner couples and the effect of social stratification on husband's participation in housework, which has not been studied thus far. Third, I investigate the effect of social stratification in more detail. According to the results of TOBIT regressions and other supplementary analyses, the principal findings are as follows:

• 1) 

  the relative resources explanation is not supported;

       

论抗日民族统一战线的历史性功绩

中国共产党是中国人民抗日战争的中流砥柱,其重要功绩之一就是在民族危亡的关键时刻,高举起抗日民族统一战线的伟大旗帜。这面旗帜,开辟了中国政党政治的新局面,改变了尖锐对立的国共关系,国共两党重新合作,为抗日战争的胜利奠定了重要的政治基础;这面旗帜,为中国各民主党派的发展和壮大提供了机会和可能,民主党派成为抗日民族统一战线的重要组成部分,是中华民族团结抗日的积极力量;这面旗帜,最大限度地调动了中国人民的抗日积极性,广大人民群众成为抗日民族统一战线的主体和中坚力量,使抗日战争成为真正的人民战争;这面旗帜,使中国共产党在极其困难的条件下,开展了积极的外交活动,为其走向世界、被国际社会所承认创造了有利的条件。     

Narrating Significant Experience: Reflective Accounts and the Production of (Self) Knowledge

Notwithstanding the rise of evidence-based practice, other tendencieswithin social work scholarship are also discernible. One ofthese is the study of the everyday, routine accomplishment ofpractice, drawing on microsociological methods and techniques.In this article, I apply techniques drawn from narrative anddiscourse analysis to the study of reflective practice accounts,which hold an important place in social work education. In particular,it is relevant to examine the form that reflective accountstake and the rhetorical and narrative devices deployed withinthem to accomplish a competent professional identity. My argumentis not that such accounts of practice are untruthful, ratherI propose that we would do well to move beyond taking texts(and talk) for granted and treating language as merely the mediumfor expressing inner thoughts and feelings. Social work shouldtake seriously the need to explore its modes of representationand to cultivate a more self-conscious approach to the way professionaland client identities are produced in practice.     

《中华人民共和国会计法》英译文简评

评述了我国会计法英译文中突出存在的词汇和句法两个方面的主要错误 ,指出在翻译中国法律文件时要做到的一点是遵循一定的法律文件英译规律 ,如突出法律行为的主体、不滥用被动句、遵守原文的句型等 ,并且要吃透原文而加以忠实翻译 ,呼吁提高国家级的法律文件英译文的质量 ,尽快开展省级涉外法规的英译及其规范化工作     

Measuring autonomy freedom

In the measurement of autonomy freedom, the admissible potential preference relations are elicited by means of the concept of ‘reasonableness’. In this paper we argue for an alternative criterion based on information about the decision maker’s ‘awareness’ of his available opportunities. We argue that such an interpretation of autonomy fares better than that based on reasonableness. We then introduce some axioms that capture this intuition and study their logical implications. In the process, a new measure of autonomy freedom is characterized, which generalizes some of the measures so far constructed in the literature.We thank Martin van Hees, Robert Sugden, Prasanta Pattanaik, the participants at workshops at the CPNSS, London School of Economics, and at the University of Caen and an anonymous referee for their suggestions. The support of the CPNSS is gratefully acknowledged. This paper is part of a research project on “The Analysis and Measurement of Freedom” funded by the Ministero dell’Istruzione, Università e Ricerca (Italy). Its financial support is gratefully acknowledged.     

“和谐”视角下的社区建设

构建和谐社会已成为当代中国新的时代主题。社区是社会的细胞、前沿和缩影,和谐社区的构建便成为一种新的社会主题。本文即针对我国当前和谐社区建设中存在的问题,进行了理性思考和探索,以期有助和谐社会的构建。     

Race and Population Change: A Longitudinal Look at Cleveland Neighborhoods

This paper investigates the relationship of racial composition to neighborhood population change from 1910 to 1990 in the Cleveland metropolitan area. To better understand the long-term dynamics of urban neighborhood change, we focus our analysis upon the longitudinal relationship of race, socioeconomic status, and life cycle stage to changes in neighborhood population densities. First, we find that the more established neighborhoods of the African-American community have experienced dramatic declines in population since 1950, a pattern that represents a clear change from the earlier part of the twentieth century. Second, population loss is experienced through a variety of mechanisms, including the demolition of dwellings, the increase in housing vacancy, and the decline of household size. Third, much of this population loss should be interpreted within the context of high economic distress, occurring most frequently in older African-American communities. Over time, economic distress appears to be more important than race in and of itself in leading to the loss of neighborhood populations.     

Television and Violence in the Economy of Memory

The present paper aims to consider the cultural function of television as a technology for the creation of a public memory. The television system records past images, preserves them, and broadcasts various historical programs. A viewer owns the public memory jointly, through watching/consuming programs. However, the process of production and consumption of programs is linked with the exclusion of other historical memories from the public space. After all, the creation of public memories in depth is related to social power. Through the analysis in concrete terms of a series of programs of Project X and the second episode of the Nippon Hoso Kyokai (NHK; Japan Broadcasting Corporation) series, Special Edition: Judging War, the relationship between the organization of public memories and social power is explored. Project X depicts the challenges of engineers of middle standing who initiated new industrial and technological developments in the 1960s and 1970s. Special Edition: Judging War is based on coverage of the Women's International War Crimes Tribunal on Japan's Military Sexual Slavery. This program was subjected to revision on the eve of its broadcast. What forms of expression were eliminated? These two programs should help us define more clearly what the Japanese media selects for incorporation into the public memory.     

Physiologically Based Liver Modeling and Risk Assessment

Because of the inherent complexity of biological systems, there is often a choice between a number of apparently equally applicable physiologically based models to describe uptake and metabolism processes in toxicology or risk assessment. These models may fit the particular data sets of interest equally well, but may give quite different parameter estimates or predictions under different (extrapolated) conditions. Such competing models can be discriminated by a number of methods, including potential refutation by means of strategic experiments, and their ability to suitably incorporate all relevant physiological processes. For illustration, three currently used models for steady-state hepatic elimination--the venous equilibration model, the parallel tube model, and the distributed sinusoidal perfusion model--are reviewed and compared with particular reference to their application in the area of risk assessment. The ability of each of the models to describe and incorporate such physiological processes as protein binding, precursor-metabolite relations and hepatic zones of elimination, capillary recruitment, capillary heterogeneity, and intrahepatic shunting is discussed. Differences between the models in hepatic parameter estimation, extrapolation to different conditions, and interspecies scaling are discussed, and criteria for choosing one model over the others are presented. In this case, the distributed model provides the most general framework for describing physiological processes taking place in the liver, and has so far not been experimentally refuted, as have the other two models. These simpler models may, however, provide useful bounds on parameter estimates and on extrapolations and risk assessments.