江总书记"5·31"讲话最鲜亮的特色

突出一个"新"字,是江总书记"5*31"讲话最鲜亮的特色.讲话包含的一系列新的概念和新的论述,充满着面向新世纪的时代感,开拓新阶段的紧迫感和开创新局面的使命感,具有催人奋进的浓烈色彩和鲜明特色.这些鲜明的特色与江总书记去年"七一"讲话最鲜亮的字眼"先进"实现了完美的结合,从而把迎接"十六大"召开的思想理论准备推到了高潮.     

Analysing direct effects in randomized trials with secondary interventions: an application to human immunodeficiency virus prevention trials

Summary.  The 'Methods for improving reproductive health in Africa' trial is a recently completed randomized trial that investigated the effect of diaphragm and lubricant gel use in reducing infection by the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) among susceptible women. 5045 women were randomly assigned to either the active treatment arm or not. Additionally, all subjects in both arms received intensive condom counselling and provision, the 'gold standard' HIV prevention barrier method. There was much lower reported use of condoms in the intervention arm than in the control arm, making it difficult to answer important public health questions based solely on the intention-to-treat analysis. We adapt an analysis technique from causal inference to estimate the 'direct effects' of assignment to the diaphragm arm, adjusting for use of condoms in an appropriate sense. Issues raised in the trial apply to other trials of HIV prevention methods, some of which are currently being conducted or designed.     

新自由主义经济学评析

近20多年来,伴随着经济全球化的深入发展,新自由主义作为一种重新兴起的经济学理论和思潮,已经渗透到经济学的各个领域。同时,由于美国的倡导和推动,新自由主义开始了世界范围内的经济政策实践,对世界经济特别是发展中国家的经济生活产生了重要影响。本文回顾了新自由主义经济学产生和发展的历史,分析了其理论体系和政策实践的后果,认为应当辩证地看待新自由主义经济学,吸取其有益的成分,抵制其错误和有害的成分,坚持走有中国特色的社会主义建设道路。     

Assessing the treatment effect in a randomized controlled trial with extensive non‐adherence: the EVOLVE trial

Intention‐to‐treat (ITT) analysis is widely used to establish efficacy in randomized clinical trials. However, in a long‐term outcomes study where non‐adherence to study drug is substantial, the on‐treatment effect of the study drug may be underestimated using the ITT analysis. The analyses presented herein are from the EVOLVE trial, a double‐blind, placebo‐controlled, event‐driven cardiovascular outcomes study conducted to assess whether a treatment regimen including cinacalcet compared with placebo in addition to other conventional therapies reduces the risk of mortality and major cardiovascular events in patients receiving hemodialysis with secondary hyperparathyroidism. Pre‐specified sensitivity analyses were performed to assess the impact of non‐adherence on the estimated effect of cinacalcet. These analyses included lag‐censoring, inverse probability of censoring weights (IPCW), rank preserving structural failure time model (RPSFTM) and iterative parameter estimation (IPE). The relative hazard (cinacalcet versus placebo) of mortality and major cardiovascular events was 0.93 (95% confidence interval 0.85, 1.02) using the ITT analysis; 0.85 (0.76, 0.95) using lag‐censoring analysis; 0.81 (0.70, 0.92) using IPCW; 0.85 (0.66, 1.04) using RPSFTM and 0.85 (0.75, 0.96) using IPE. These analyses, while not providing definitive evidence, suggest that the intervention may have an effect while subjects are receiving treatment. The ITT method remains the established method to evaluate efficacy of a new treatment; however, additional analyses should be considered to assess the on‐treatment effect when substantial non‐adherence to study drug is expected or observed. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

论孙思邈的医学伦理思想

孙思邈是我国唐代一位深受人民群众爱戴的医学家.在他的著作中,包含着极丰富的医学伦理思想,提出了医生道德修养的六个重要方面,值得我们认真吸取和借鉴.     

Intent‐to‐treat analysis in the presence of off‐treatment or missing data

Intent‐to‐treat (ITT) analysis is viewed as the analysis of a clinical trial that provides the least bias, but difficult issues can arise. Common analysis methods such as mixed‐effects and proportional hazards models are usually labeled as ITT analysis, but in practice they can often be inconsistent with a strict interpretation of the ITT principle. In trials where effective medications are available to patients withdrawing from treatment, ITT analysis can mask important therapeutic effects of the intervention studied in the trial. Analysis of on‐treatment data may be subject to bias, but can address efficacy objectives when combined with careful review of the pattern of withdrawals across treatments particularly for those patients withdrawing due to lack of efficacy and adverse events. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Power series estimator for binary data

There are several commonly used measures of association between treatment and control event rates in the population, including odds ratios, relative risk and number needed to treat. Conventionally those parameters are estimated by the sample proportion estimators. In this paper, we show that the sample proportional estimators tend to overestimate. Fortunately, those measurements are estimable by the power series estimators and they converge to UMVUE with a speed of convergency depending on big-O. For instance, it converges slowly for the number needed to treat if the difference between two sample proportions is close to zero.     

编辑处理来稿过程中存在的问题及对策

文章认为：期刊编辑应当妥善处理作者的一稿多投问题,此类文章一经刊登,也应该付给作者稿酬;期刊编辑对收到的自由来稿应当认真、及时地处理;同时与作者交朋友,帮助、培养作者,为期刊的稳步发展打下坚实的基础,奉献给读者更加可口的精神食粮。     

Precise definitions of some terminology for longitudinal clinical trials: subjects,patient populations,analysis sets,intention to treat,and related terms

Biostatisticians recognize the importance of precise definitions of technical terms in randomized controlled clinical trial (RCCT) protocols, statistical analysis plans, and so on, in part because definitions are a foundation for subsequent actions. Imprecise definitions can be a source of controversies about appropriate statistical methods, interpretation of results, and extrapolations to larger populations. This paper presents precise definitions of some familiar terms and definitions of some new terms, some perhaps controversial. The glossary contains definitions that can be copied into a protocol, statistical analysis plan, or similar document and customized. The definitions were motivated and illustrated in the context of a longitudinal RCCT in which some randomized enrollees are non‐adherent, receive a corrupted treatment, or withdraw prematurely. The definitions can be adapted for use in a much wider set of RCCTs. New terms can be used in place of controversial terms, for example, subject. We define terms specifying a person's progress through RCCT phases and that precisely define the RCCT's phases and milestones. We define terms that distinguish between subsets of an RCCT's enrollees and a much larger patient population. ‘The intention‐to‐treat (ITT) principle’ has multiple interpretations that can be distilled to the definitions of the ‘ITT analysis set of randomized enrollees’. Most differences among interpretations of ‘the’ ITT principle stem from an RCCT's primary objective (mainly efficacy versus effectiveness). Four different ‘authoritative’ definitions of ITT analysis set of randomized enrollees illustrate the variety of interpretations. We propose a separate specification of the analysis set of data that will be used in a specific analysis. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

肯尼迪政府时期美国出口管制政策探析

肯尼迪政府时期,面对日益复杂化的国际、国内形势,美国政府对出口管制政策进行了调整,一方面使出口管制政策更加制度化、法律化;另一方面努力协调了与西方盟国的关系,以提高出口管制的有效性;同时对苏联、东欧和中国等国区别对待,以期实现其拉拢、分化的目的。这一政策的实行,在一定程度上弥合了美国与西方盟国的关系,利用了中苏分歧,离间了苏东国家的关系,使美国在冷战格局中保持了主动的地位。