Global employment and decent jobs, 2010–2030: The forces of demography and automation

Globally, an estimated 734 million jobs will be required between 2010 and 2030 to accommodate recent and ongoing demographic shifts, account for plausible changes in labour force participation rates, and achieve target unemployment rates of at or below 4 per cent for adults and at or below 8 per cent for youth. The facts that most new jobs will be required in countries where “decent” jobs are less prevalent and workers in many occupations are increasingly subject to risks of automation further compound the challenge of job creation, which is already quite sizable in historical perspective. Failure to create the jobs that are needed through 2030 would put currently operative social security systems under pressure and undermine efforts to guarantee the national social protection floors enshrined in the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).     

Response‐adaptive designs for binary responses: How to offer patient benefit while being robust to time trends?

Response‐adaptive randomisation (RAR) can considerably improve the chances of a successful treatment outcome for patients in a clinical trial by skewing the allocation probability towards better performing treatments as data accumulates. There is considerable interest in using RAR designs in drug development for rare diseases, where traditional designs are not either feasible or ethically questionable. In this paper, we discuss and address a major criticism levelled at RAR: namely, type I error inflation due to an unknown time trend over the course of the trial. The most common cause of this phenomenon is changes in the characteristics of recruited patients—referred to as patient drift. This is a realistic concern for clinical trials in rare diseases due to their lengthly accrual rate. We compute the type I error inflation as a function of the time trend magnitude to determine in which contexts the problem is most exacerbated. We then assess the ability of different correction methods to preserve type I error in these contexts and their performance in terms of other operating characteristics, including patient benefit and power. We make recommendations as to which correction methods are most suitable in the rare disease context for several RAR rules, differentiating between the 2‐armed and the multi‐armed case. We further propose a RAR design for multi‐armed clinical trials, which is computationally efficient and robust to several time trends considered.     

Strong law of large numbers and complete convergence for non-identically distributed WOD random variables

In this paper, we establish the strong law of large numbers and complete convergence for non-identically distributed WOD random variables. We derive some new inequalities of Fuk–Nagaev type for the sums of non-identically distributed WD random variables. All these results further extend and refine previous ones.     

Self-exciting threshold models for time series of counts with a finite range

In this article, an integer-valued self-exciting threshold model with a finite range based on the binomial INARCH(1) model is proposed. Important stochastic properties are derived, and approaches for parameter estimation are discussed. A real-data example about the regional spread of public drunkenness in Pittsburgh demonstrates the applicability of the new model in comparison to existing models. Feasible modifications of the model are presented, which are designed to handle special features such as zero-inflation.     

现代社会隐私权和知情权的边界

现代社会是权利的社会,也是权利冲突频发的社会。权利之间的冲突缘起于法律规则的模糊性、权利的滥用和权利的交互性。其实质是一种客观存在的事实而非理论预设和逻辑分析的结果。权利冲突可以大致界分为主体间的权利冲突、价值冲突、利益冲突三种类型;权利间的冲突需要借助社会控制模式(个人控制、组织控制、法律控制)并通过价值平衡方法来解决。     

Bayesian estimation and prediction for Weibull model with progressive censoring

This article presents the statistical inferences on Weibull parameters with the data that are progressively type II censored. The maximum likelihood estimators are derived. For incorporation of previous information with current data, the Bayesian approach is considered. We obtain the Bayes estimators under squared error loss with a bivariate prior distribution, and derive the credible intervals for the parameters of Weibull distribution. Also, the Bayes prediction intervals for future observations are obtained in the one- and two-sample cases. The method is shown to be practical, although a computer program is required for its implementation. A numerical example is presented for illustration and some simulation study are performed.     

Deriving Behavior Model Parameters from Survey Data: Self‐Protective Behavior Adoption During the 2009–2010 Influenza A(H1N1) Pandemic

In this paper, we demonstrate how public opinion surveys can be designed to collect information pertinent to computational behavior modeling, and we present the results of a public opinion and behavior survey conducted during the 2009–2010 H1N1 influenza pandemic. The results are used to parameterize the Health Belief Model of individual health‐protective decision making. Survey subjects were asked questions about their perceptions of the then‐circulating influenza and attitudes towards two personal protective behaviors: vaccination and avoidance of crowds. We empirically address two important issues in applying the Health Belief Model of behavior to computational infectious disease simulation: (1) the factors dynamically influencing the states of the Health Belief Model variables and (2) the appropriateness of the Health Belief Model in describing self‐protective behavior in the context of pandemic influenza.     

Comparison of computer programs for simple linear L 1 regression

A number of efficient computer codes are available for the simple linear L ₁ regression problem. However, a number of these codes can be made more efficient by utilizing the least squares solution. In fact, a couple of available computer programs already do so.

We report the results of a computational study comparing several openly available computer programs for solving the simple linear L ₁ regression problem with and without computing and utilizing a least squares solution.     

70年代国外习得顺序研究综述(二)

本文回顾了70年代句子习得顺序的相关研究,主要涉及否定句、疑问句的习得顺序的相关研究,也提及70年代提出的关于关系从句的习得顺序的三大研究假设,最后指出70年代习得顺序研究的意义和不足之处以及之后该领域的主要研究动态。     

关敬吾论日本传统故事的类型与结构

本文是日本民俗学家关敬吾先生对日本传统故事的概念界定以及对之内容、结构特点的概括,作为“他山之石”,可以给中国民俗学理论研究提供参考。