论人口的组织结构

本文认为组织是现代社会的一个重要人口特征,可以分别从组织类型、组织规模、组织密度等方面对人口组织结构进行探讨;研究人口组织结构有助于增强人口学的学术和应用价值.对基本单位普查和经济普查资料的初步分析表明,广州就业人口的组织结构正处于一个由传统的行政为主型向企业为主型的转变过程中.     

Pooled Panel Unit Root Tests and the Effect of Past Initialization

This paper analyzes the role of initialization when testing for a unit root in panel data, an issue that has received surprisingly little attention in the literature. In fact, most studies assume that the initial value is either zero or bounded. As a response to this, the current paper considers a model in which the initialization is in the past, which is shown to have several distinctive features that makes it attractive, even in comparison to the common time series practice of making the initial value a draw from its unconditional distribution under the stationary alternative. The results have implications not only for theory, but also for applied work. In particular, and in contrast to the time series case, in panels the effect of the initialization need not be negative but can actually lead to improved test performance.     

The Local Power of the CADF and CIPS Panel Unit Root Tests

Very little is known about the local power of second generation panel unit root tests that are robust to cross-section dependence. This article derives the local asymptotic power functions of the cross-section argumented Dickey–Fuller Cross-section Augmented Dickey-Fuller (CADF) and CIPS tests of Pesaran (2007), which are among the most popular tests around.     

Analysing non-doctrinal socialization: re-assessing the role of cognition to account for social cohesion in the Religious Society of Friends

To incorporate newcomers into membership, a group employs socialization strategies to transform the characteristics of the newcomers, so that it can admit them with the confidence that their behaviour will not endanger group unity. Analyses of socialization emphasize that novices' interiorization of an institutional definition of group behaviour is a necessary condition to ensure successful socialization. The contemporary Religious Society of Friends in Britain, however, is a non-doctrinal religious movement that avoids defining the content of its beliefs and practices. To analyse the socializing interaction between members and newcomers in this movement in Britain, and among co-religionists in the USA, this inquiry applies a model of socialization that does not include assumptions about the role played by cognition in socialization (Long and Hadden 1983). My results show that: (a) the diffuseness in Friends' collective explanations of institutional conduct supports novices' identification with institutional practice, and (b) experimental and affective components in socialization motivate novices to imitate institutional behaviour despite the fact that Friends have no authoritative explanations of such behaviour. The data suggest that socialization and social cohesion are not necessarily as strongly cognitive-oriented phenomena as they were previously thought to be. This finding has important implications for thinking about social cohesion in postmodern society.     

A new heavy-tailed distribution defined on the bounded interval: the logit slash distribution and its application

This paper proposes a new heavy-tailed and alternative slash type distribution on a bounded interval via a relation of a slash random variable with respect to the standard logistic function to model the real data set with skewed and high kurtosis which includes the outlier observation. Some basic statistical properties of the newly defined distribution are studied. We derive the maximum likelihood, least-square, and weighted least-square estimations of its parameters. We assess the performance of the estimators of these estimation methods by the simulation study. Moreover, an application to real data demonstrates that the proposed distribution can provide a better fit than well-known bounded distributions in the literature when the skewed data set with high kurtosis contains the outlier observations.     

Neighborhood change from the bottom Up: What are the determinants of social distance between new and prior residents?

An important source of neighborhood change occurs when there is a turnover in the housing unit due to residential mobility and the new residents differ from the prior residents based on socio-demographic characteristics (what we term social distance). Nonetheless, research has typically not asked which characteristics explain transitions with higher social distance based on a number of demographic dimensions. We explore this question using American Housing Survey data from 1985 to 2007, and focus on instances in which the prior household moved out and is replaced by a new household. We focus on four key characteristics for explaining this social distance: the type of housing unit, the age of the housing unit, the length of residence of the exiting household, and the crime and social disorder in the neighborhood. We find that transitions in the oldest housing units and for the longest tenured residents result in the greatest amount of social distance between new and prior residents, implying that these transitions are particularly important for fostering neighborhood socio-demographic change. The results imply micro-mechanisms at the household level that might help explain net change at the neighborhood level.     

Reinvigorating the social contract and strengthening social cohesion: Social protection responses to COVID-19

The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed the vulnerability of those who are inadequately covered by social protection in more and less developed countries alike, and has exacerbated the fragility of a social contract that was already under strain in many countries. A weak social contract in the context of an exceptional crisis poses a very real risk to social cohesion. Nevertheless, many States have reasserted themselves as the guarantor of rights by protecting public health and incomes. By sustaining these measures, economic recovery will be supported which will help minimize risks that may weaken social cohesion. However, this is a fast-moving, inherently unstable and protracted crisis. Social protection stands at a critical juncture. Decisive policy action will be required to strengthen social protection systems, including floors, as one of the cornerstones of a reinvigorated social contract.     

中国社会保障公共支出省际比较研究

在借鉴社会保障制度比较研究的经典理论和模型的基础上,本文依据中国31个省份的年度截面数据对影响各省社会保障公共支出水平的因素进行了统计分析和模型检验。研究结果发现,中国各省级政府的社会保障公共支出水平存在着巨大的差异。政府力量是造成各省社会保障公共支出水平差异的首要因素,其次是单位体制因素,再次是经济发展水平因素。     

固定资产投资与国内生产总值的误差修正模型研究

运用协整理论和误差修正模型研究固定资产投资和国内生产总值之间的关系,可以发现它们之间存在长期均衡的协整关系,使用误差修正模型比普通的单变量方程更能反映两者长期和短期的关系,还可以避免谬误回归问题。     

语篇衔接与英语习得程度调查分析

通过对大学非英语专业学生的英语议论文写作中使用的语篇连接词进行统计分析,探讨学习者语篇衔接意识和能力与英语习得程度的关系。研究结果发现:1)学习者使用连接词的意识和能力与他们的英语习得程度有关系;2)英语习得程度好的学习者与程度差的学习者所使用的连接词在总数和类别数量上有显著差异;3)在议论文体中所使用的连接词存在单一的特点。