投资组合动态VaR预测模型和预测精度评价

采用4种Backtesting检验方法,检验22个常态和时变投资组合动态VaR预测模型的风险预测精度,发现GJR_GPD_TV_Copula具有最高的投资组合风险预测精度,GJR_GPD_Copula的拟合、密度预测和组合风险预测精度都要高于GJR_SKST_Copula,且Copula模型的组合风险预测精度分别与拟合精度和密度预测精度存在较弱的正相关关系.     

Why do participants in voluntary organizations leave? Exploring the relationship between value congruence and length of stay

Recognizing the importance of values and the specific characteristics of participants and situations in voluntary organizations, we examine how value congruence—the fit or compatibility of values between participants and the organization, or among participants—interacts with personal and situational factors to predict participants' length of stay in their organizations. Introducing the case of a voluntary organization that offers shared housing, we measure value congruence through textual similarity in the self‐introduction documents of 49 participants and the organization's mission statement. This approach differs from the self‐reported measures based on participants' perceptions or recalled interactions used in previous studies. In line with expectation‐disconfirmation theory, participants with the strongest beliefs in organizational values had shorter lengths of stay. The amount of intraorganizational communication also moderated the relationship between value congruence and length of stay. This study provides theoretical and methodological implications for nonprofit management by considering personal and situational factors and evaluating value congruence by textual similarity.     

公司章程自治价值分析

理论上,公司章程是公司的"宪章",形式上公司章程是公司进行登记、取得公司资格的不可或缺性要件,而实际上,在我国,公司章程并未完全发挥其应有的作用,面临着尴尬的处境。本文首先介绍了自治价值在公司章程中的体现,然后对公司章程现状进行剖析,并提出实现公司章程自治价值的可行性办法。     

论伊德的科学价值观

伊德"非中性"的科学价值观揭示的是科学的本体论意义上的价值维度,而传统的科学价值观是事实与价值分离的"中性论"的价值观。伊德认为,传统的科学的价值观没有深入到本体论、生成论意义层次,是缺乏深度的知识论意义上的价值观。停留于此基础上的价值观,难免导致科学的"乌托邦"或"敌托邦"。     

论马克思主义大众化的三重内涵

马克思主义大众化包含三层涵义：从形式上说,它是一个涵盖马克思主义大众化和化大众的双重辩证结构体系；从内容上说,它表现的是一种真理与价值的辩证关系；从现实的政治生活上说则是我党执政理念的一个历史性转变.     

文学语篇翻译中有标记主位的诗学价值再现

文学翻译的追求是思想信息和诗学价值兼得。有标记性主位的运用是文学作品诗学价值的重要表现手法。有标记主位的信息突出功能、信息对比功能、句法信息功能和文体信息功能在翻译中的再现是文学作品诗学价值再现的必由之路。     

魔幻现实主义在旅游环境设计中的运用

魔幻现实主义设计手法在旅游环境设计中具有广泛的运用空间。文章基于魔幻现实主义概念与特点,多视角地分析了魔幻现实主义作为一种"新现实主义"在旅游环境设计中的独特价值。     

Taking Stock of Neighbourhood Planning in England 2011–2016

Neighbourhood planning (NP) as enabled by the 2011 Localism Act in England has precipitated a considerable literature discussing its potential, limitations and likely shortcomings referenced against government rhetoric and the reporting of initial experiences of the process. This paper provides an overview of the current literature on neighbourhood planning and sets out how it has been received and practised across England drawing on empirical evidence. The extent of take-up and the experience of those involved in the first five years of neighbourhood planning is used to consider how community-led planning may be designed and used following operational principles of inclusivity, capacity-building and adding value.     

Bayesian analysis of multivariate stochastic volatility with skew return distribution

Multivariate stochastic volatility models with skew distributions are proposed. Exploiting Cholesky stochastic volatility modeling, univariate stochastic volatility processes with leverage effect and generalized hyperbolic skew t-distributions are embedded to multivariate analysis with time-varying correlations. Bayesian modeling allows this approach to provide parsimonious skew structure and to easily scale up for high-dimensional problem. Analyses of daily stock returns are illustrated. Empirical results show that the time-varying correlations and the sparse skew structure contribute to improved prediction performance and Value-at-Risk forecasts.     

中国服务业显性比较优势测算——基于前向联系增加值出口

基于"前向联系增加值出口"方法,测算了1995-2011年中国服务业细分产业层面及按要素密集度特征分类层面的显性比较优势指数(RCA_F),并同基于"总出口"1的比较优势指数(RCA)进行了比较。研究发现,中国在全球价值链分工中,比较优势集中在资本密集型服务业领域,且实现了比较劣势向比较优势的转变;劳动、知识密集型服务业及健康教育公共服务均尚未取得比较优势,但是有迹象表明三个领域的比较劣势有改善的趋势。与基于前向联系增加值出口核算结果相比,基于总出口核算结果"高估"了劳动密集型产业的比较优势,其中对建筑业和零售贸易两个部门的估计偏差最大;同时,在资本、知识密集型两个领域存在不同程度的"低估"现象。